April 2026 - Incrementum

Peace Priced In; Orderly Markets and a Fragile Narrative

Posted on April 17, 2026April 17, 2026 by Dr. Stefan M. Kremeth

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

“Iran’s so far away, stocks can hit a record.”

John Authers

The ten-year inflation rates remain significantly lower than the levels observed during the Liberation Day panic. Despite the recent uptick in energy prices, the inflation swap market is exhibiting only a gradual increase. It maintains a stable trajectory, particularly in the long-term segment, at least for the time being.

Current Situation

Optimism regarding a potential negotiated settlement is driving global stock markets higher. Investors are continuing to adopt a ‘buy-the-dip’ strategy. Meanwhile, the bond and inflation markets show significant stability, suggesting investors view the current geopolitical risks as a temporary disruption rather than a fundamental change in macroeconomic conditions.

Key interest rate expectations

Rate expectations remain notably stable in the short term, with market participants largely expecting unwavering policies from central banking authorities.

Eurozone Interest Rate Expectations

In the eurozone, one-month euro futures are forecasting two 25-basis-point rate hikes from the European Central Bank (ECB) by the end of 2026, the same expectation as last week. The upcoming ECB meeting will take place on April 30, with the deposit rate remaining at 2.0% since the decision on June 5, 2025.

U.S. Interest Rate Expectations

Futures traders are anticipating a significant interest rate cut by autumn 2027, a shift from the previous week when no such cut was expected. Currently, the US key interest rate is set within a range of 3.50% to 3.75%. The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for Wednesday, April 29, and it will be the last meeting for the incumbent chair, Jerome Powell, provided that Kevin Warsh is confirmed by the Senate in time. The likelihood that the key interest rate will remain unchanged in April is 98%. While Powell will not be responsible for any further rate cuts, his potential successor, Kevin Warsh, would be, although not until autumn 2027.

Unnecessary Noise

U.S. President Donald Trump has intensified his ongoing dispute with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. In an interview with Fox Business, Trump indicated that he would dismiss Powell from the Fed’s Board of Governors if he did not resign following a leadership change at the central bank. Additionally, Trump expressed confidence that Kevin Warsh, his nominee to replace Powell, would soon secure confirmation from Congress. Powell has previously stated that he would continue to serve as chairman “pro tempore” if Warsh is not confirmed by the end of his regular term in May.

Conclusion

While I certainly recognise opportunities for solid investments, I would not be surprised if the current almost carefree outlook results in increased volatility and challenges in the weeks and months ahead. To me, peace looks priced in, and markets seem to depend on a fragile narrative. The war does not help inflation go away any time soon, and unnecessary noise around the leadership change at the U.S. central bank is not what investors appreciate. It is going to stay interesting.

Ladies and Gentlemen

Feel free to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li. Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 153
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

The Goal

Posted on April 10, 2026April 10, 2026 by Dr. Stefan M. Kremeth

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

“All this hasty ‘shooting from the hip’ will have massive long-term consequences for U.S. financial hegemony. Washington is increasingly losing control here.”

Ronald P. Stöferle, Partner at Incrementum AG

From a historical standpoint, the belief that relations between Europe and the US have reached unprecedented precariousness today is fundamentally misguided. Such alarmist claims often stem from a deliberate disregard for historical context. When the past is overlooked, it may seem that current events are entirely novel.

More than One Goal

In our discussions about investing, we often look at goals that align with common aspirations, such as building wealth and securing financial security. However, it’s important to acknowledge that specific goals can differ significantly based on the unique needs and circumstances of individuals or groups. In today’s “Stefan’s Weekly,” I have compiled a list of goals for four key stakeholders.

1. Our Investors’ Financial Goals

Our private investor’s primary objective is to achieve long-term growth in real wealth that aligns with their risk profile and individual needs. Most of our investors aim to preserve and enhance their purchasing power, targeting real (inflation-adjusted) wealth growth over a defined investment horizon rather than just in the short term. Depending on their risk appetite and goals, priorities can vary, such as capital preservation, which emphasises security and low volatility, and current income, which focuses on earning interest and dividends with moderate risk and limited volatility. Essentially, we advocate for a balanced approach to wealth accumulation that combines income generation and capital gains while maintaining moderate volatility.

2. Incrementum’s Goal is Our Commitment to Investors

We help our clients with a proactive, fundamental investment strategy. Our investment decisions are primarily guided by the fundamental strengths of individual companies and their operational performance. We place a strong emphasis on quality, sustainability, and long-term value creation. While we consider political and macroeconomic factors in our analysis, they do not take precedence in our approach. Ultimately, what matters most to us is the underlying business fundamentals, independent of short-term external influences.

3. The Goal of Financial Markets

Investors expect well-functioning financial markets to provide a dependable, equitable, and efficient framework. Markets should allocate capital effectively, enable transparent price formation, provide adequate liquidity, and support long-term investment strategies. While temporary volatility is tolerable, persistent distortions or any loss of integrity are not. Investors, therefore, expect financial market operators to deliver transparency and clear risk disclosure; a strong commitment to investors’ interests, free from hidden conflicts of interest; reliable market access together with secure settlement processes; and professional risk management that safeguards systemic stability. In short, financial markets should enable long-term value creation, and their operators must earn investors’ trust through integrity, transparency, and a consistent focus on investor interests.

4. Authorities’ Goal: Stable and Trustworthy Markets that Serve the Public Good

Authorities, supervisory bodies, and policymakers anticipate that financial markets will be stable, transparent, and driven by integrity. These markets should operate smoothly, facilitate reliable price formation, and mitigate systemic risks to safeguard both investors and the broader economy. Regulators and policymakers expect market participants to establish robust governance structures, implement effective risk management practices, provide clear and comprehensible information, and ensure consistent adherence to regulatory requirements. Protecting investors and consumers, maintaining market integrity, and ensuring compliance are seen as essential prerequisites for fostering lasting trust. In essence, financial markets should serve the public good, with their participants responsible for promoting stability, transparency, and trust.