Month: May 2019

Gold in the Age of Eroding Trust

Posted on by Stefan Markus Kremeth

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen
 
They did it again! As every year, my partners Ronni Stöferle and Mark Valek have invested a considerable amount of time into what we believe to be the most extensive research piece that has ever been written on gold.
 
The narrative of this year’s edition is “Gold in the Age of Eroding Trust” and how the widespread as well as multi-facetted erosion of trust affects gold and may affect the price of gold. Among others, the following topics are covered this year:

  • Review of the most important events in the gold market over the past 12 months 
  • “The Monetary U-Turn” and its impact on the gold price
  • The increasing importance of gold as reserve asset in a time of de-dollarization
  • Gold stocks: reasons for our confidence (ESG, technology, valuation)
  • Outlook for gold price development 

Further highlights of the report include exclusive interviews and guest contributions from and with many well-known personalities, such as Jim Rogers or Prof. Steve Hanke.
 
In the following please find the download links for all editions of the report:
 
English version:
Extended Version – English (340 pages) 
Compact Version – English (100 pages) 

Please feel free to share our Incrementum In Gold we Trust report with family, friends, and colleagues.
 
If you should have any questions, please feel free to contact my partner Ronni Stöferle under: rps@incrementum.li 

Enjoy the reading, Ladies and Gentlemen and have a great day and weekend. 

Kind regards.
 
Yours truly, Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG

In Gold We Trust report 2019 Gold in the Age of Eroding Trust

Posted on by Incrementum AG

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen,

we are delighted to send you the 13th edition of our annual In Gold We Trust report, titled “Gold in the Age of Eroding Trust”. The report’s leitmotif refers to the erosion of trust in politics, society, and the global monetary architecture.

Among others, the following topics are covered in the In Gold We Trust report 2019:

  • Review of the most important events in the gold market over the past 12 months
  • “The Monetary U-Turn” and its impact on the gold price
  • The increasing importance of gold as reserve asset in a time of de-dollarization
  • Gold and cryptocurrencies – a solidifying friendship
  • Gold stocks: reasons for our confidence (ESG, technology, valuation)
  • Outlook for gold price development


Further highlights of this issue are:
Exclusive interviews with

  • Jim Rogers, the world-renowned investor: “Whenever you see problems, remember weiji!”
  • Freegold/FOFOA: In Gold We Trust 2019 contains the highlights of an interview with the legendary blogger. The entire interview can be downloaded from our website at www.ingoldwetrust.report/freegold

Guest contributions by    

  • Prof. Steve Hanke: “Hyperinflation: Much Talked About, Little Understood.”
  • Keith Weiner on “Gold Bonds”
  • Mark Burridge (Baker Steel): “Reforms, Returns and Responsibility – How can gold mining equities become more important during the next gold cycle?” 


We are proud that for the first time our In Gold We Trust report will also be published in Chinese, on June 18, 2019.

We would like to invite you to join us on our annual journey and hope you enjoy reading our 13th In Gold We Trust report as much as we enjoyed writing it.
Have a great day and please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions! 

Yours truly,

Ronald-Peter Stoeferle & Mark J. Valek
Incrementum AG

There is no magic!

Posted on by Stefan Markus Kremeth

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

There is no magic! Financial well-being and prosperity need a minimum amount of economic growth.

You know, I received a fair amount of positive feedback to Anton’s article on increased productivity and economic growth thanks to cheap and all time readily available (fossil) energy and again, Ladies and Gentlemen, there is no magic, economic growth demands cheap and 24/7 readily available energy.

… and without economic growth, large parts of populations will not be able of keeping their standard of living on current levels and even less of increasing it, unfortunately there is no magic there either.

I believe if large parts of a population feel economic pressure, eventually those people will want to vent their feelings, and this may lead to unpredictable and inconvenient consequences. The yellow vests movement in France is only one very recent example right in front of our doorsteps.

The cost of such protests is enormous and, there is again no magic, will have to be borne by the country’s population. While the wealthier cohort will not really feel any impact, it is a twist of fate that the less fortunate cohort, the ones that are in the street protesting for a better life, will be hurt even more over time through indirect tax increases, inflation, general increase in cost of living.

The question for me and my readers is how to invest in such an environment. I firmly believe there is again no magic. If you want to have some sort of cash return on your assets in a 0% or negative interest environment, you can get it by accepting volatility. If you are ready to accept volatility you can have easily 4% – 5% cash return on your investments. But volatility is not for everyone. People get very quickly very nervous. Long term statistics show that equities beat bonds but the price you pay for the extra performance of equities over bonds is volatility. No magic, Ladies and Gentlemen! I don’t mind volatility; I prefer low volatility to high volatility, but I don’t really mind it that much.

Besides equities, where do you want to invest your money and receive a cash return if not in equities?

What is your opinion, Ladies and Gentlemen, as Anton did, please share your thoughts, ideas and/or experiences with me and my readers, but please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:

smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

And now, Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a great day and weekend.

Kind regards.

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG

Gold Equities finally turning a corner? Incrementum Advisory Board Q2 – feat. special guest Mark Burridge (Baker Steel)

Posted on by Incrementum AG

Dear investors, friends and clients, Are gold equities finally turning a corner?  On our advisory board call this quarter we had special guest Mark Burridge, Managing Partner at Baker Steel Capital Managers. Mark has a background in mining geology, and has been in the metals and mining industry for 25 years. As we are very excited about the recently established cooperation between Baker Steel and Incrementum, we thought it might be worthwhile to pick Mark’s brains. During the call we talked about:

  • What positive changes are gold mining companies finally making?
  • How is ESG and technology changing the mining industry?
  • Are we finally close to a recession?
  • One economic measure is at a 12-year low – why could that suddenly matter a lot?
  • What ticking timebomb could set off the markets?

We hope that you will find our discussion insightful and inspiring! Have a great start into the new week!

Mark J. Valek & Ronald-Peter Stoeferle Incrementum AG

Im alten Riet 102 FL-9494 Schaan www.incrementum.li

Inescapable Realities of Prosperity

Posted on by Stefan Markus Kremeth

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen
 
One of my readers sent me a link to an article he published on LinkedIn. I think the article is fundamentally sound, proposes some of his very personal interesting ideas and assumptions and is well written. I have thus asked him permission to publish his article or the link to his article in my weekly mail and was granted that. Thank you very much for sharing your knowledge and thoughts, Anton!
 
Now, the original title of the article is: “Energy, Productivity & Debt – Inescapable Realities of Prosperity” and the original article with some illustrating charts and graphs can be found under the following link:
 
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/energy-productivity-debt-inescapable-realities-anton-f-balint/
 
I highly recommend reading the original article. However, one or the other passage may need some second reading especially for non-native English speakers, I think it is worth it.
 
What is your opinion, Ladies and Gentlemen, as Anton did, please share your thoughts, ideas and/or experiences with me and my readers, but please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:
 
smk@incrementum.li
 
Many thanks, indeed!
 
And now, Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a great day and weekend.
Kind regards.

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG

In Gold we Trust

Posted on by Stefan Markus Kremeth

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen
 
I am happy to announce that our yearly report “In Gold we Trust” on monetary policies and gold will be published on May 28, 2019. Please have a look at our website and maybe even the teaser video we produced under the following link:
 
https://ingoldwetrust.report/
 
You may be sure to find many interesting charts and stories, illustrating known and lesser known aspects of the special situation of monetary policies we’re in for so many years already and which will last for some more time I suppose.
 
In my humble and slightly bias opinion we can be certain that Ronni, Mark and their helping colleagues have been digging into the dirt to bring to light facts usually not covered by mainstream media.
 
Another 18 days and Incrementum’s 2019 “In Gold we Trust” report will be published, this year for the first time in Chinese, next to English and German.
 
Ladies and Gentlemen, in anticipation of our Incrementum “In Gold we Trust” report I wish you a great day and weekend.
 
Kind regards,
 
Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG

Interview: Mark Valek, The Future of Gold Conference, March 2019

Posted on by Mark Justin Valek

In this interview, conducted by Brecht Arnaert, editor-in-chief of Macrotrends, Mark Valek highlights the differences (and similarities) between crypto and gold, and considers what putting them together can do for smoothing our your potential returns.

Mark Valek: „Gold and Bitcoin: Stronger Together?“

Posted on by Mark Justin Valek

Mark Valek discusses the relationship between gold and crypto-currencies and why combining them into one strategy can form a great position for weathering the coming economic storm.
From “The Future of Gold Conference”, March 2019.

Michael J. Burry

Posted on by Stefan Markus Kremeth

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen
 
Michael J. Burry is an American, physician, investor, and hedge fund manager. He was founder of the hedge fund Scion Capital, which he ran from 2000 until 2008. Burry was one of the first investors to recognize and profit from the subprime mortgage crisis and became famous when he was portrayed in the biographical drama “the big short”.
 
Why would I dedicate my weekly mail to Michael J. Burry you may ask?
 
I got the idea when communicating with Robert, one of my regular readers after my last weekly mail on my personal investment style. The conversation went very much into the direction of the difficulties I am facing when managing my clients’ assets. Prior to the conversation with Robert I have had a similar conversation with David from Australia.
 
What I wrote to them was that the difficulty for me as a money manager is to see and recognise facts that make an investment an interesting one or a not so interesting one. This may seem obvious but with the amount of information available today, I still want to stress the fact that sometimes it is very hard to see the obvious because our mind gets distracted by market “noise” and headlines and maybe colleagues and/or a client who calls and tells me what he just had learned from a friend, etc.. Thus to recognise the obvious and if possible to recognise it ex ante, is not such an apparent thing. Also, and this is utterly important, it is vital not only to see the risks of an investment but potential chances of it as well. As you know, I am getting paid for investing my clients’ assets and for achieving positive results. Looking at the risk side for too long keeps me from seeing chances.
 
I try very hard to stick to my investment principles and to keep all the noise outside of my focus. I do not read investment-advise from banks and brokers and don’t go to their investment meetings. Most of my investment decisions I take on weekends, as I don’t want to be influenced by prices going up and down and I usually inform my partners during our weekly asset allocation meetings on Monday afternoon about my ideas, which I generally implement afterwards. In this respect I am rather focused and structured.
 
…and still, I do make mistakes and I am really not very good at timing the market. But the long-term results nevertheless are rather inspiring. My client’s portfolios show less volatility and better performance in the long run than any of the markets I am investing in. I am only able to capture a part of the gains on the upside (in average roughly 65%) but during difficult periods, downswings, etc. our portfolios are mainly very stable and, in the past, only lost roughly 15% – 35% of what the markets would lose.
 
You know, I think it is important to question one’s investment approach from time to time and make sure that one’s expertise (especially strong expertise) is not holding one back of seeing chances outside the field of expertise. Michael J. Burry was very successful with sticking to his principles and with seeking chances and exploiting opportunities. The mix was perfect at the time.
 
What is your opinion, Ladies and Gentlemen, I am asking you again, will we see a major market correction or soaring markets? Let me know about your investment style and please share your investment experiences with me and my readers, but please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:
 
smk@incrementum.li
 
Many thanks, indeed!
 
And now, Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a great day and weekend.

Kind regards
 
Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG