Month: April 2020

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

Many thanks for participating in my year-end competition, I had still received some more bets from here and there. Thanks for this!

Now, today I have a real treat for you! Today you will not have to read, you may only click on the link below to listen and watch, this is all you’ll have to do, and you will see my friend and partner Ronni Stöferle. Ronni is most probably one of the best known, if not the best-known gold analyst on this planet. Not only is he very knowledgeable and the editor of the most read gold report globally, i.e. Incrementum’s “In Gold we Trust” but furthermore he is charming and fun to listen to. I personally think that many analysts in the space are rather boring and depressing, Ronni is not. Please enjoy his latest video under the following link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNRAcw2XSI4

…and please let me know if you liked it and as always feel free to share your ideas and investment experiences and thoughts with me, but please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:

smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

Thank you very much for the fantastic feedback I received for my friend Anton’s text on the importance of USD liquidity.

Today I would like to come back to the year-end competition and my very own predictions. I have received quite some feedback, as I had purposefully taken an extreme stance. I am delighted to give you my very private and personal opinion; however, please keep in mind that I do not have a crystal ball and can’t foresee the future. Now, why was I going for a new all-time high in the S&P 500, when companies will feel the impact of Covit-19 in their P&Ls and be subject to earnings revisions? The reason is that I think the market will disconnect (even more) from what seemed “fairly” valued in the past. And why would that happen, you may ask? I think it may happen because all the money that is being created right now by governments and central banks will trickle down and find its way right into financial markets. Furthermore, investors are aware of the difficulties corporates may face, and earnings revisions will, therefore, not come as a surprise to them.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I would not be surprised to see an asset price inflation in art, collector cars, rare real estate, scarce luxury goods, equities, etc. Furthermore, interest rates will stay low for a long time, leaving no alternative to pension schemes and other long-term investors as to invest in so-called risk assets.

If a scenario unfolds that seems more or less congruent with my views, it may be that gold moves up as well, you may claim. You are right, as the “cost of carry” is neglectable at current interest rates, and gold represents a valid hedge against inflation. However, if equity markets move up, greed or, in other words, catch as catch may come into play. Gold could suffer as greed for higher returns may lead to a competition of “potential excessive returns,” where investments that are presumably delivering lower profits be sold for “investments” proposing higher ones.

I could easily imagine exaggerations like we had seen during the Nasdaq tech bubble twenty years ago. In this respect, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the Nasdaq 100 has already crossed its 50-day moving average. Netflix and Amazon climbed to new all-time highs, and Tesla rose significantly. The charts of these stocks show an intact tech bull market.

Ladies and Gentlemen, all of this is pure speculation, and again none of us will be able to foresee the future, and your guess is as good as mine. Above everything, my year-end competition should be fun for those participating and myself, and if everyone is close to consensus, fun is smaller than if we have a broad set of bets leading to a lively discussion.

And now, Ladies and Gentlemen, I wish you a good start into the day, a wonderful weekend and above all good health!

Please feel free to share your ideas and investment experiences and thoughts to Anton’s article with me, but please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:

smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

And now, Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a great day and weekend.

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li
Web: www.incrementum.li