The judging panel was particularly impressed with the profound understanding of monetary history that Stefan and his team possess. Judge Andrew Walsh said: “Incrementum evaluate investments from a global economy perspective, taking the current state of the global monetary regime into account. This analysis produces a truly holistic view of the state of financial markets, allowing clients to prosper in any
market environment.”
Month: March 2020
Year-End Competition
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen
Interesting times demand for an interesting competition!
Let us have another year-end competition. I know it is still early in the process, but I think you will like the challenge. I hope for a few bold predictions.
Those who follow my weekly mails for some time will know, that I don’t like making predictions. Why? Because predictions are impossible to make. We will take assumptions based on our best of knowledge, only that this best of knowledge will never be enough to get it right.
However, from time to time I am happy to tell you what I think may happen and since these are exceptional times and since I like you to let me know what you are thinking, it is time for a year-end competition. The deal is easy, I tell you when you tell me.
Like I did in the past, I would like to invite you to compete with all other readers and myself and out of tradition, the winner will receive one ounce of sliver in the form of a silver coin. This certainly will make my friends Robert and Chris wanting to participate.
Last year’s competition was won by my friend and mate Andreas, and I know I mentioned before, Andreas was the best producer of study notes during university-times.
Now, I suppose and as we did last year, we are trying to guess the year-end price for one ounce of gold in USD, for the S&P 500 and for one ounce of silver in USD. All cash, no futures. The closest one wins the silver coin. The year-end prices will be taken from this page:
Now my predictions are the following: S&P 500 – 4’450, Gold – USD 1’280, Silver – USD 14.95.
As last week let us again quickly see what has happened to financial markets so far this year? Here are some numbers for 2020: Gold: +6.36%, Silver: -19.35%, Dow Jones: -20.98%, EuroStoxx 50: – 23.96%, DAX: – 24.52%, SMI: – 13.31%, Crude Oil (Brent) – 58.2%.
Next week my young friend Anton will share his ideas on USD liquidity and its importance to global trade and financial markets. I am very much looking forward to getting to know more.
And now, Ladies and Gentlemen, I wish you a good start into the day and above all good health!
Please feel free to share your ideas and investment experiences with me, but please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:
Many thanks, indeed!
Yours truly,
Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG
Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li
Web: www.incrementum.li
Biggest Question Right Now: Are We Entering a Recession or a Depression?
Are we in a recession or a depression? Ronald Peter Stöferle and Silver Bullion TV want to answer this important question. This and many other current developments are discussed in the interview.
Systemic Shocks will Lead to a Loss of Trust in Central Banking
Oil collapse, rising US dollar, credit shocks and supply crisis, the market is currently struggling with several problems at once. Ronald Peter Stöferle Tom Bodrovics of Palisade Radio discuss these issues and much more in their interview “Systemic shocks will lead to a loss of confidence in the central banking system”.
First positive signs?
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen
Many thanks for your kind messages to my last weekly mail “Full Stop or the Road to Zero”.
I think there are some first positive news out there, but they are not yet strong enough to stand up against the bad news.
Still, Apple announced the successful reopening of all of its 42 stores in China. Italy seems to have finally been able to stop growth of new Covit-19 infection cases. A stagnation is already a success and probably proves right the concept of social distancing. China is getting back into production mode and restaurants and bars in Hong Kong are open for business and full of people again.
The U.S. government and the Federal Reserve have taken measures to help the economy and to avoid anything like a liquidity crisis and the European Central Bank has just announced on Wednesday evening the injection of some EUR 750’000’000’000.00 into the system and if necessary, even more.
These are absurd numbers. However, absurd or not this money will eventually find its way into financial markets and guess what I think that will lead to?
Please let me know what you think!
And now as last week – let us again quickly see what has happened to financial markets so far this year? Here are some figures for 2020: Dow Jones: – 29.61%, EuroStoxx 50: – 34.47%, DAX: – 35.01%, SMI: – 17.3%, Crude Oil (Brent) – 56.94%.
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a good start into the day and above all good health!
Please feel free to share your ideas and investment experiences with me, but please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:
Many thanks, indeed!
And now, Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a great day and weekend.
Yours truly,
Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG
Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li
Web: www.incrementum.li
Gold as Equity Diversifier in Recessions
Despite corona and economic crisis, gold remains a good stock diversifier in recessions. Read about how gold performs in such times and what the future may hold.
Gold: a hedge against future policy misfires
Dear Ladies and Gentleman, we are pleased to see that we were mentioned in the Financial Times in an opinion piece by David Stevenson. He talks about Golds as an asset during turbulent times and also about how Gold is good investment in times of big central bank interventions.
Incrementum Inflation Signal Turns to Falling Inflation Momentum – All Eyes on the “Mother Of All Stimulus Programs”
We hereby want to inform you that as of last week our proprietary inflation indicator has switched to a “FALLING INFLATION” signal from a “50% RISING INFLATION” signal.
Full Stop or the Road to Zero
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen
Today’s weekly “Full Stop or the Road to Zero” covers some of the thoughts I was sharing with our investors during the course of the week. I was writing two mails to our private clients this week. I tried to explain what had happened in financial markets and what my thoughts were.
Losses, even if only book losses, always hurt. I am convinced a cool head can help to some extent, especially in difficult times. Since the Second World War there have been around 25 – 26 stock market crashes. Each one of these stock market crashes was most likely associated with an extremely unpleasant experience for investors at the time, but despite all these stock market crashes we have been able to experience new highs in many indices over the past decades.
What conclusions can be drawn from this fact? In my opinion, the conclusion can be drawn that periods of great fear are followed by periods of confidence and with time investments in well-managed companies may again be considered attractive and rated accordingly by market participants.
But let us quickly see what has happened to financial markets so far this year? Here are some figures for 2020: Dow Jones: – 25.71%, EuroStoxx 50: – 32.04%, DAX: – 30.85%, SMI: – 22.1%, Crude Oil (Brent) – 46.33%.
The fear of a global recession is undrstandable and has risen sharply almost overnight, leading to major disruptions in stock markets around the globe. The entry ban imposed by President Trump on travellers from Europe, Switzerland, etc. has not helped the situation. This measure is evidence that the fear of the pandemic has now reached the US government. To me it seems the U.S. government has long been rather reluctant in accepting the importance of the virus.
In addition, a large proportion of the money under management today is invested in so-called passive instruments such as ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) and other index-based instruments. In the event of a crisis, such instruments are thrown onto the market and find no buyers, which puts massive pressure on the prices of the individual shares they contain. This is the flip side of indexed products and it is also but not only for this reason that we do not use them in our portfolios. Nevertheless, our portfolios have also suffered greatly, albeit not to the extent of the indices or index products.
However, Covit-19 is a temporary and not a structural issue. Covit-19 reveals many weaknesses in the system, and I am convinced that governments and government-related organizations, global companies, local authorities and market participants will learn from it and that we as a global community can emerge from the crisis stronger than before. In China, there are already the first slight all-clear signals and in certain regions, everyday life (which is still reduced in most cases) is returning. Covit-19 should not be underestimated and be treated with respect. Nevertheless, every crisis is followed by a recovery and recovery often leads to a surge in consumption, people will be relieved and want to treat themselves.
A full stop generally comes before a restart and sooner or later all of us will be restarting again. I see absurd price movements in the markets and can’t imagine this full stop leading us into a closed end road to zero. If financial markets continue to fall like yesterday for the next 10 days, indices will go down to zero and if this happens, I promise, at zero I will “buy” every stock I can for all my clients and for myself as well.
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a good start into the day and above all good health!
Please feel free to share your ideas and investment experiences with me, but please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:
Many thanks, indeed!
And now, Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a great day and weekend.
Yours truly,
Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG
Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li
Web: www.incrementum.li
Gold: a hedge against future policy misfires
Sehr geehrte Damen und Herren, wir freuen uns, dass wir in der Financial Times in einem Meinungsartikel von David Stevenson erwähnt wurden. Er spricht über Gold als Vermögenswert in turbulenten Zeiten und auch darüber, dass Gold in Zeiten großer Zentralbankinterventionen eine gute Investition ist.