Ronald Stöferle gave an interview with Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna of Macro Voices. Together they discuss the key points and implications of this year’s In Gold We Trust report.
Month: May 2020
In Gold We Trust Report 2020, “The Dawning of a Golden Decade” – Now Available!
In Gold We Trust Report 2020, “The Dawning of a Golden Decade” – Now Available!
This year’s In Gold We Trust report is finally available. In 350 pages and 16 chapters everything about gold is covered. From the question of where the journey is headed to the de-dollarization, everything is included.
The 2020 In Gold We Trust Report: Summary
The 2020 In Gold We Trust Report: The dawning of a Golden Decade
The In Gold We Trust Report will be out soon! We take a look at the key points and articles of this year’s Report.
Fiction an Perspective
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen
“Beware of false knowledge, it’s more dangerous than ignorance.” (George Bernard Shaw)
More and more angry people are leading to an increasingly hostile society cultivated by ruthless heads of states. Is this fiction?
Ladies and Gentlemen, I am fully aware of the significant location advantage I was born into, I am reasonably humble, and I am also of a rather liberal spirit. Is this combination fiction?
Open borders, free markets, access to education for everyone, the best should succeed, a global safety net for less fortunate ones, respect for different perspectives, and beliefs. Is this fiction?
In the summer of 1931, the global economic crisis hit large parts of the population hard. The Bank of England was forced to borrow USD 650 million from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Bank de France to stay solvent. That year in August, the Bank of England’s governor was unable to cope with the exceptional strain by the crisis and had abandoned his work and gone for a cruise and a change of scenery. Today central banks work together more and better than ever. This was and is no fiction.
Today, the Swiss government is blasting well over 100 billion (this is far more than the EU or the US or any other nation is injecting in their economies on a per capita basis) into a by a Covit-19 weakened economy, leading to the fact that entrepreneurial risks and losses are socialized, while profits stay private. This is no fiction.
So-called real assets or tangible assets favor low-interest rates. Low-interest rates are here to stay for some time. While many of those proposing real (tangible) assets are taking advantage of higher asset prices thanks to these low-interest rates, they still bash central bankers for keeping interest rates low. This is no fiction.
…and it is hypocrite!
Ladies and Gentlemen, stay woke, keep your eyes open and do not get your vision blurred by cheap cynicism from people with doubtful academic credentials, change your perspective, try to get the fullest picture possible, talk to people who are of a different opinion and try to find out why they think the way they think.
And now, Ladies and Gentlemen, I wish you a good start into the day, a wonderful weekend and above all good health!
Yours truly,
Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG
Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li
Web: www.incrementum.li
IASF – Seasonal Reflections – 2020 / 05
The fund manager’s reflections on important political and macro topics and how they affect his management of the fund
Conviction
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen
Many thanks for your great help to our former assistant Cristian. He was delighted with many of you answering to his questionnaire, many thanks indeed!
I was pondering about my conviction and our conviction, i.e., the “Incrementum conviction,” i.e., the joint cutting surface of the Incrementum partners. We have many common universal principals and ideas, but as we are human beings of a rather liberal spirit, they are by no means congruent. I think this is fantastic, and it makes our asset management meetings lively and exciting, and it leads to different approaches and products for various clients’ needs. Some people do not understand that we can be of a different opinion and still share a respect for views; we do not share. The advantage of our free-thinking is that the chance of falling into an “effectiveness trap” is reduced.
“Effectiveness trap,” you may ask?
In 1968, James C. Thomson, a former Asia expert in the Kennedy and Johnson administrations, published an essay “how could Vietnam happen? An Autopsy'” Among the reasons Thomson gave for the war was “the ‘effectiveness’ trap”—the belief among officials that it is usually wisest to accept the status quo. “The inclination to remain silent or to acquiesce in the presence of the great men—to live to fight another day, to give on this issue so that you can be ‘effective’ on later issues—is overwhelming,” he wrote. The trap is seductive because it carries an impression of principled tough-mindedness, not cowardice. Remaining “effective” also becomes a reason never to quit.
I believe that in many respects, today’s reality bears traces of the effectiveness trap of the past, and I wonder how politicians but also the electorate will get out of this without losing face. Let us assume a president of a dominant economic and military power lies to the public in an absurdly blunt way and is backed by people of his party and inner circle, who must know he is lying and still do not act in any way and let us briefly think about the public, the people who gave their votes to such a president during his campaign once but maybe will even give it a second time? How will they ever get out of this retrospectively, how will they explain their inertia at times when they should have stood up for the truth?
Stepping into the effectiveness trap is easy.
Anyway, this should not turn out to be a political message but rather show my thoughts on the effectiveness trap and on investment behavior. Currently, it seems to me, many investors have no strategy and switch between one proposed opportunity and another one without having an idea of what the ultimate goal should be and without sticking to any principles whatsoever. I am fully aware that it is easier to stick to s strategy, i.e., a plan when the markets move in favor of that very strategy, but it is probably even more important to stick to a plan when markets dot not move in favor of the approach, always keeping in mind the ultimate goal.
The Crash of 1987, the bursting of the Dotcom Bubble, the Asian Crisis, 911, the Great Financial Crisis, and now Covit-19 show similar patterns. In every crisis, you have the media going crazy, experts giving all sorts of advice, investors losing their confidence in financial markets and opportunity hunters buying into solid companies that are under pressure for a few quarters. One always hears the same mantras. This time is different. This is a real crisis. It is not only a financial crisis, etc. Ladies and Gentlemen, this time is different is a pleonasm. Obviously, no crisis is identical to another crisis. However, so far, I have not seen one example of financial markets not recovering from a crisis.
While we want to avoid the effectiveness trap, we still want to stick to our conviction because we think it makes sense. What do you think?
Please share your thoughts with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:
Many thanks, indeed!
And now, Ladies and Gentlemen, I wish you a good start into the day, a wonderful weekend and above all good health!
Yours truly,
Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG
Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li
Web: www.incrementum.li
Help – Preferences and Incentives of Impact Investors and Managers across the United States and Europe
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen
I need your help. Please apologize for my being so blunt, but our former assistant, Cristian Ababii, is currently writing his master-theses to receive an MSc in Finance and needs your support.
He created a questionnaire but did not reach answers leading to the necessary sample size to show the statistical significance needed to satisfy his professors. He asked me if I could maybe help him with my network, and I would be delighted to be of help!
Now, Ladies and Gentlemen, this is where you come into play. Please take a little time and help this young man fulfill his task. He wrote a short introduction to the topic, and I am happy to share it with you:
“There is evidence showing a significant difference between assets under management directed to impact investing (investments in companies, organisations and funds with the specific intention of achieving measurable, positive effects on the environment or society in addition to a positive financial return) between the US and EU. The US investors’ share in the impact investment market counts for 66% and the EU investors’ share for 28%. For my thesis, I am intrigued to discover the overall investment preferences of US- versus EU investors. The assumption is that US investors are more focused on making an impact, rather than on financial return, contrary to EU investors. If this assumption proves to be wrong, the next assumption is that the governments from either the US or the EU provide investors with different investment-incentives. Accordingly, the US government provides investors with more incentives nudging them to allocate assets towards impact investments.
For my master thesis, I have created a specific questionnaire. I would be very grateful for your participation in the survey. It will take approximately 10 to 12 minutes, and it covers 21 closed questions. The survey responses are strictly confidential and anonymous.”
Please take a moment now, click on the following link and reply to the questions:
https://www.questionpro.com/t/AOzQzZg52z
Thank you very much, indeed!
And now, Ladies and Gentlemen, I wish you a good start into the day, a wonderful weekend and above all good health!
Yours truly,
Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG
Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li
Web: www.incrementum.li