Month: August 2021

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

In his book “The Enigma of Room 622”, Joel Dicker writes, “success is the pleasure of working together”. This very well describes a part of my way of thinking. It gives me great pleasure to achieve prosperity for our investors’ thanks to the personal exchange and cooperation with different people and by trying to stay as calm as possible in sometimes crazy times.

Normal Volatility

For more than one year, ever since the covid outbreak in Q1 2020, «calamity predicters» call for a crash. Still, no crash to be seen but plenty of opportunity costs for those not invested. Volatility in traditional asset classes is within a standard range. This, of course, does not mean there will not be a slump or crash in the market eventually, but it mainly means that it probably makes sense not to keep all eggs in one basket and invest for one scenario, only.

Why

Why would I mention this? Because to me, it is exemplary on how I try to approach research, podcasts, youtube videos, newspapers, etc. When reading research or listening to people’s podcasts, youtube videos, and the like, the most crucial question is «why». Why does the analyst, journalist, podcast or video producer communicate what she/he is communicating? What may be the motivation? If you can get a vague idea of the «why», you have a higher chance of gauging the conclusion and setting it in relation to your own views and ideas.

My Motivation

Ok, «so, Stefan, what is your motivation»? You may think. To be as transparent as possible, I am happy to elaborate on my motivation to write a weekly mail to my subscribers for free. It is simple, over a year, I receive a fair amount of feedback, and in many cases, the feedback helps me calibrate my own views and beliefs. In other words, true, I produce free content, but also true, I receive free feedback. So on one side, I see it as a win-win for my readers and myself, and on the other side, it gives me genuine pleasure to write just about every topic I want, when I want.

Joel Dicker

To me, “success is the pleasure of working together”! So I think Joel Dicker is right! Furthermore, I am privileged to share my thoughts with people worldwide and receive feedback from people from all over the world with sometimes very different perspectives.

Your view counts!

How do you approach research, podcasts, youtube videos, newspapers, etc?
As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day, a wonderful weekend, and above all, good health!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

This year’s year-end competition shows an interesting picture.

Extremes

As you will see, the volatility in the individual underlying’s market prices is somewhat represented in the spread between the highest and lowest of your estimates for gold, Bitcoin and the S&P 500. However, there are still estimates dropping in every day; thus, I will only calculate the weighted average for each category in a few weeks from now. So far the picture is the following:

Gold

The range in gold stretches from USD 1’650 to USD 2’066, with roughly half of the estimates hovering around 1’850. Thus, my readers seem not too bullish on gold but slightly optimistic.

Bitcoin

The range in Bitcoin stretches from USD 23’000 to USD 87’000. Now, for Bitcoin, the picture is very much different than for gold. So far, roughly half of the estimates lie above USD 70’000, which shows my reader’s great confidence for higher prices in Bitcoin.

S&P 500

The range in the S&P 500 stretches from USD 3’835 to USD 5’048. However, half of the estimates came in lower than today’s market price, and half of the estimates came in above today’s market price.

Conclusion

Hitherto, it seems most of you are bullish on Bitcoin, slightly positive on gold and neutral on the S&P 500.

My Prediction

Some of you had noticed that, unlike in the past years, I had not yet given my prediction. True, I was always the first one to show my cards. However, this year I kept them close to my chest because I did not want to influence anyone in any way.

I forecast that gold will close at USD 1’900, Bitcoin will close at 66’000 and the S&P 500 at 5’100.

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:… but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:
smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day, a wonderful weekend, and above all, good health!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

For those who have joined our readers recently, every year, I am organising a year-end competition in guessing for example the price of gold, silver, crude oil, the SMI or the S&P 500 Index.

Predictions

Regularly, I receive emails from readers asking me where I think the price of gold would be at the end of the year or the SMI or interest rates or the price of silver. Those who follow my weekly emails frequently will know, that I would not say I like making predictions.

Invitation

However, from time to time, I am happy to tell you what I think may happen just for fun, and since we are in August already, it is time for our traditional year-end competition. Like I did in the past, I invite you to compete with all the other readers and myself, and as always, the winner will receive one ounce of silver in the form of a silver coin. If the winner stems from within Incrementum or my family. I am happy to send a one-ounce silver coin also to the second in place.

Former Winners

The list of former winners includes an old friend from university, a client, a former fund manager and value specialist from London and regular readers. So far, no family members and none of my partners were close enough to be called winners. It is difficult if not impossible to guess the future and yet I am looking forward to your bets!

Gold, Bitcoin, S&P 500

Now, Ladies and Gentlemen, I suppose we try to guess the year-end price for one ounce of gold in USD, the S&P 500 and (for the first time) Bitcoin in USD. All cash, no futures. The closest one wins the silver coin. The year-end prices will be taken from this page:
https://marktdaten.fuw.ch/.

Ladies and Gentlemen, what do you think? What is your best guess for the year-end prices of gold, the S&P 500 and Bitcoin. As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li.

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day, a wonderful weekend, and above all, good health!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

From an economic perspective, the factors of production include land or its natural resources, capital, labour, and, I would argue, knowledge. Now, I have a fair amount of discussions with people of different backgrounds about the importance of capital, i.e. investments.

Something Neglectable

…and occasionally I almost do get the impression that in some people’s minds, capital is not seen as an important economic production factor but essentially as something neglectable, something close to being ashamed of. I do not understand why one could argue like this. Please allow me to share my thoughts with you.

Misunderstanding – Capital is Key

When talking to people, I often sense some socio-economic misunderstanding concerning «capital» and investments. Not considering capital as an essential economic factor ignores the fact that an economy’s stakeholders could not invest in land, labour and knowledge, produce and offer services, conduct research, drive innovation, promote and accumulate knowledge without capital. Capital is key! In other words, without the production factor capital, the other production factors are not or only marginally available. Therefore, investors, i.e. capital providers, are of crucial economic significance, which some political groups and probably even many participants in an economy, unfortunately, seem to underestimate.

Thank you!

Thanks to investors like you (people who are willing to accept risk and provide capital to companies), economies may prosper, create jobs, wealth and social security. Investors are doing something utterly important by providing capital, i.e. by investing. Investing is an active and productive attitude. If investors kept their money (capital) under a mattress in their bedrooms, this would be a passive attitude and not help any economy whatsoever.

Ladies and Gentlemen, you can be proud of supporting various economies with your capital, and I consider it self-evident that you are compensated for the risk you are taking with a return on your capital invested. Thank you!

Ladies and Gentlemen, what do you think, what is your opinion? Please let me know your thoughts.

… but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day, a wonderful weekend, and above all, good health!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li