It is a great pleasure to present Ronald Stöferle’s Key Note Speech from this year’s German gold show. Under the title “The monetary tipping point” he presents his plea for permanent and not temporary inflation, the fundamental factors for the bull market in gold and mines as well as an outlook for the gold price.
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen,
No, this is not going to be a Black Friday special. I am not into this Black Friday thing too much, even if I see the benefits for specific industries. Just imagine it is Black Friday, and no one goes there. That would be a shock for some economies.
Today I would like to share an article with you. I wrote the article for a magazine after we had been honoured with some awards by ACQ5 for Liechtenstein. It is only for Liechtenstein and I am fully aware that Switzerland, Luxembourg or the U.K. are, of course, much larger financial centres and yet we still had to do a decent job somehow.
You know, Ladies and Gentlemen, I did not want this article to sound too tacky, but I had to take the chance and do a little bit of marketing for Incrementum, and especially for our Wealth Management Business. Sorry about that and thanks for your understanding!
Please feel free to click on the link below to see and read the article:
https://mcusercontent.com/b268a38a165b03979d95268dd/files/9b8d7425-eceb-62e3-c1eb-82938f70a47f/ACQ5_Awards.pdf
As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:
smk@incrementum.li
Many thanks, indeed!
I wish you an excellent start to the day, a wonderful weekend, and above all, good health!
Yours truly,
Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets
Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li
The European Investment Journal published an article in its autumn issue about our Incrementum Digital & Physical Gold Fund, which combines Bitcoin and Gold.
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen,
My Partner Ronni Stöferle just held a keynote at Deutsche Goldmesse in Frankfurt. His slides contain some exciting aspects, and this is why I would like to share the presentation with you today. In addition, there will be a video of him holding the presentation, which I intend to share with you as soon as we receive it from the conference’s organiser.
Now, Ronni’s presentation’s topic was «the monetary tipping point», i.e. “the point at which a series of small changes or incidents becomes significant enough to cause a larger, more important change.” a definition according to the Oxford English Dictionary.
As I have pointed out to you in my last edition of Stefan’s weekly, I currently do seem to have a somewhat blurred inflation picture. However, Ronni, on the other side seems to have a pretty clear picture. Moreover, his conclusions are the following.
In Ronni’s view, higher inflation rates are not going to be transitory. Furthermore, he believes that while we are moving from an era of monetary dominance to a new era of fiscal dominance, real interest rates will remain negative for years to come, which in the past was a perfect ground for higher gold prices. Ronni also gives an outlook on mining stocks and the price of gold.
Please feel free to have a look at Ronni’s presentation via the following link:
https://mcusercontent.com/b268a38a165b03979d95268dd/files/18f0dd2e-c48f-eabb-9e72-eb1416aaeced/Monetary_Tipping_Point_Nov_2021.pdf
As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:
smk@incrementum.li
Many thanks, indeed!
I wish you an excellent start to the day, a wonderful weekend, and above all, good health!
Yours truly,
Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets
Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li
Ronald Stöferle is at the German Gold Fair. As part of this he also meets with Michael McCrae from Kitco News to talk about the latest developments in the gold market.
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen,
This summer, it seemed many and prominent short-term oriented market participants were speculating on rising interest rates and maybe even some short-term Fed action in their favour. Short-term interest rates increased, the Federal Reserve did not act. Yes, they announced the beginning of a tapering mode but no increase in interest rates. Maybe we should one day go back to look at the Fed’s mandate. I sometimes do get the impression market participants get carried away while performing their daily tasks and forget what the Fed’s role really is.
Anyway, as was the case at the beginning of October, excessive interest rate speculation seemed somewhat exaggerated. However, interest rates had and still have not yet shifted dramatically towards inflation at the long end. Thus, my picture on inflation is/was (my vision seems somewhat blurred at this moment) still showing a one-off increase in prices for daily goods, salaries, etc. Maybe I will have to adjust my inflation picture over the weeks to come. But, so far, I am still not entirely convinced we will see lasting inflationary pressure. So, let us see, I am definitively more cautious than I was some months ago.
This week, market participants reacted to the just-published U.S. October inflation numbers with an upward adjustment of the key interest rate path. Up to now, three rate hikes are priced in for the Fed meetings between June 2022 until February 2023.
Nevertheless, in my opinion, so far, the long end bond yields show and showed us either that market participants do not yet quite believe in a sustained rise in inflation or that they show confidence in the actions of central banks, which at this stage would surprise, if not irritate, me somewhat.
However, as it happens, I just read a piece of market research giving a slightly different perspective on what happened in the bond market between summer and October. The writer suggested that indeed many and prominent short-term oriented market participants were betting on rising interest rates. This is no surprise, but now it comes. At the same time, considerable and traditionally long-term oriented bondholders began unwinding some of their positions in the market, which apparently brings their holdings to the lowest in years if not decades.
If large and traditionally long-term oriented bondholders are selling instead of buying fixed income products and around the same time the Federal Reserve starts tapering its bond purchasing program, where will all the bonds issued daily go? If we go back to an unmanipulated bond market where offer and demand set the price, in my opinion, there can only be one direction for bond yields; they would most probably have to go up, no?
…and yes, this would impact my personal inflation picture, depending on the actual increase, maybe more, maybe less.
As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:
smk@incrementum.li
Many thanks, indeed!
I wish you an excellent start to the day, a wonderful weekend, and above all, good health!
Yours truly,
Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets
Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen
Barry, a regular reader of «Stefan’s weekly,» sent me the following quote:
“You buy Cryptos to get rich… you buy Gold to stay rich.”
Now, this quote made me think. It made me think of the question of why do we believe in the things we believe? I mean, I do like the quote; after all, Incrementum also makes money thanks to its research business about gold and also thanks to managing digital assets in combination with other assets, and yet, I still asked myself why I liked the quote and could even see some truth in it.
Among the many philosophers who have examined identity, Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel (1770-1831) concluded that any society’s ideas define its social being, which means that the progress or evolution of ideas determines the identity of a social group/or an individual.
If Hegel is right, social context may be more important to identity than knowledge. Wow, what about individual beliefs? What about truth, then? Maybe Hegel can help again; according to his thoughts, knowledge is simply the current truth along the path towards a distant (more) absolute truth.
Social context has been a fascination to me for many years. I would therefore like to share with you this concise definition of social context. «Social context, also known as “milieu”, is how someone reacts to something depending on their immediate and past social or physical environment. Thus, social context can influence how someone perceives something.»
So what? You may think, why is this important to people reading about financial markets, managing assets, producing research, etc.? It is massively important, Ladies and Gentlemen! Because the identity of every writer of every piece of research, the identity of every portfolio manager, the identity of every speaker at every investment conference is being influenced, maybe consciously, most probably unconsciously, by her or his social context.
Our identities are impregnated by the social context in which we live, and therefore our identities are likely to change probably more or less in proportion to the progressive change in our social context. This can only lead to one conclusion. So by reading, listening, watching about financial assets, research, investment advice, asset management (anything in life, really), firstly always ask yourself about the writer’s or speaker’s personal motivation behind a given statement, conclusion. I know; I did mention this many times before. But now it comes, I honestly think, it is time to ask yourself a second question: what is the writer’s/speaker’s social context? If you get a feeling for the answers to those two questions, you will be able to gauge statements, conclusions, and this again should lead to a more custom-tailored overall picture for yourself, and this is what it is all about. Your personal picture, not someone else’s.
Never forget to distance yourself from what seems obvious. Take a step back or, as G.W.F. Hegel put it: «the more time allowed away from everyday toil, the more the chance of thought and enlightenment.» Wonderful!
Next week we should look at inflation, bond yields and what is to be expected over the months to come?
As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:
smk@incrementum.li
Many thanks, indeed!
I wish you an excellent start to the day, a wonderful weekend, and above all, good health!
Yours truly,
Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets
Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li