Month: February 2020

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE

Posted on by Stefan Markus Kremeth

Ladies and Gentlemen

The following link was sent to me by one of my clients who is a medical doctor. Please look at it for your convenience:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

The interpretation of the numbers is up to you. For myself I can only say that I am somewhat surprised that the mainstream media is not mentioning recovered cases as much as cases of new infections.

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li
Web: www.incrementum.li

Perception

Posted on by Stefan Markus Kremeth

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

COVID-10 has received coverage in the media for approximately two months by now. However, the effect it developed over the last two weeks was rather unpleasant for financial markets’ participants. While in the beginning people were looking at the news and thinking the poor people in China had a problem, suddenly the same people seem to realise that viruses do not necessarily respect a country’s borders. The virus came to Europe. I guess this was not the initial idea of the official European “welcome culture”.

Ladies and Gentlemen, we are in a phase where perception is not necessarily matching facts. People do not know what is going on and how coronavirus will develop and this uncertainty is very bad for financial markets and it may go on for some time. Financial markets do not like uncertainty!

Nevertheless, these may also be the moments when one can buy into great opportunities. It may still be too early but then again, if the general public is afraid of investing, the ones who dare may buy at attractive prices.

From what we have seen, experienced ever since the GFC (Great Financial Crisis), I think we can expect the central banks to be on the side of the markets in the event of a crisis. I believe they will not hesitate to respond to possible losses of momentum in the global economy by cutting interest rates and flooding the markets with cheap money over and over again. Furthermore, President Trump aims for a re-election. If the U.S. economy is in a desperate state of a looming recession and financial markets are down, his re-election hopes will most probably evaporate at the ballot.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I am cautious too but if I see an opportunity to buy into a well-managed net free cashflow producing company at low prices, I will do it. I am fully aware that most probably I will not buy at the lowest prices possible and yet, I will still do it. I buy in small steps and over many days, if not weeks and I am looking forward to harvesting dividends, interests and the like in the months and years to come. Investing is long-term by definition, investing is what we are doing. I always ask myself during turbulent markets if I still would shed an investment applying a five to ten years investment horizon and if I can’t answer with a clear yes, I will not sell.

What is your opinion, Ladies and Gentlemen, please let me know about your ideas,  fears, your investment experiences, but please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:

smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

And now, Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a great day and weekend.

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li
Web: www.incrementum.li

What the Incrementum partners think

Posted on by Stefan Markus Kremeth

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

Today I would like to share a transcript with you. It is a rather long transcript, and this is why I will keep it short here. It is a transcript of a meeting the partners of Incrementum conducted some two weeks ago. We were discussing about financial markets and some of the risks we see. It somewhat was the purpose of the exercise to gear it towards risk and less towards opportunities of financial markets. However, and as you can imagine, ahead of the start of a new physical and digital gold fund, it will come as no surprise to you that we see opportunities in those two asset classes, otherwise we would not come up with such a product in the first place. Therefore, please excuse our bias.

Please feel free to come back with your comments, ideas and questions, but first enjoy the read:

https://www.incrementum.li/en/journal/incrementum-inflation-diversifier-advisory-board-call-q1-january-2020/

Thank you for letting me know about your views and please don’t forget, if you are sharing your viewpoints, (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:

smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

Ladies and Gentlemen, I wish you a great day and weekend

Kind regards.

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li
Web: www.incrementum.li

Collective Outrage II

Posted on by Stefan Markus Kremeth

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

Many thanks for your feedbacks. It seems I am not the only one concerned. Unfortunately I am unable to publish all the very valuable comments I received. Before sharing some or at least extracts of them, allow me to mention that many of you indicated a disturbing feeling of ever-increasing moralizing arguments in political debates. I almost get the impression that the weaker an argument the higher the moralizing part in a debate becomes. Unfortunately this phenomenon can be detected across all political parties and/or interest groups.

Let me start with David:

“Yes Stefan, I fully agree with your summation. “Collective outrage” is indeed a new phenomenon, and it appears to be managed by special-interest groups and social media to persuade society at large to conform to the “politically correct” or ideologically expedient consensus. Some of these mass circulations are just naive oversimplifications. Others are gross falsehoods, which repeated often enough become the “truth” for large sectors of the population. Freedom of thought is actively discouraged, making it easier for a certain breed of politicians, economists and malcontents to manipulate public opinion.”

Thank you, David! Many of us are intrigued by the “power” modern mass media or better, the ones who know how to use them, have over public opinion.

Let me continue with Kelly:

“In general I agree with your sentiment. I would only add that people are also social creatures. As such, community is important. Community being a group of people that share enough common values and interests to cooperate with one another toward common ends. This leads me to the thought that nations of millions that attempt top down rule will always be pushing a string vs. pulling. Peaceful communities are achieved through voluntary cooperation; because people are so unique, I believe, it is unreasonable to think that millions of unique individuals will have enough in common to voluntarily cooperate on enough subjects to form a mutually beneficial cohesive society. I believe smaller communities that govern their common interests through direct democracy are better suited to peaceful existence. Alliances can be built between communities that address trade and security while leaving the majority of governance within the smaller communities. Final thought: when the will of one is imposed on the will of another, disharmony and conflict are assured.”

I couldn’t agree more. Thank you, Kelly!

And now, Anton, my friend and research partner in a paper on “risk shift in pension schemes”:

“I’m so glad that more people are seeing these phenomena (Ray Dario spoke about something similar in one of his recent LinkedIn posts). This course of action has been in acceleration for the past 10 years but has much longer roots (I highly recommend the book called Public Opinion by Walter Lippmann). The core of the problem as I see it is a betrayal of trust by politicians, scientists, teachers, journalists and religious people: all the core institutions of our socio-economic order have betrayed the implied trust in them – we trust them to “guide” us in exchange for them having the freedom to do so. When that trust is placed secondary to vested interests, under the cheap veil of “nothing is true, everything is permitted” (a postmodern narrative), then things start to go downhill. I personally see no simple solution. I believe that change comes forcefully: I don’t see “leaders” coming together, putting their differences aside and dealing with the many, many issues that we face. They will play the moral card and the outrage card as long as they stay in power: power has always been the archenemy of progress for it needs rigid structures.” 

Thank you very much Anton, always a pleasure exchanging ideas and working together with you! I hope you don’t mind me having had to cut short your extensive assessment.

Ladies and Gentlemen, please do not hesitate sending in your comments. Next week we will be looking at financial markets.

Please let me know your views and reply to my thoughts, but if you are sharing your viewpoints, please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:

smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

Ladies and Gentlemen, I wish you a great day and weekend.

Kind regards.

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li
Web: www.incrementum.li

Collective Outrage

Posted on by Stefan Markus Kremeth

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

Many thanks for the messages I received during the course of the week on today’s topic. Only by announcing it last week, I already triggered a fair amount of intriguing feedbacks.

The majority of messages I received was covering what I would call “personal outrage” or maybe “private outrage” and I do share a lot of sympathy for the stories I received but they were slightly off what I had in mind. I am interested in a phenomenon I call “collective outrage”, something I did not notice as much when I was young, but which is bothering me now that I am getting older.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I am referring to something I notice in debates among family members, fiends and in public debates, etc.

Let me kick-off with a brief idea of mine. I am very much convinced that pretty much every human being is different from another one, i.e. human beings are mostly and truly individual. Due to the socio-cultural environment we were brought up in, live in and want to belong to, but also due to our education, experiences, hopes and dreams, we think and feel maybe more or probably less like other people in the various cohorts we belong to or see ourselves belonging to. Considering this, I think it would be an unbelievable coincidence to exactly think, feel and believe like someone else, another person. Maybe there are cross sections, larger or smaller but identical thinking, feeling, believing seems improbable to me.

Now, if we presume my thought to be vaguely legitimate, wouldn’t it be totally normal, natural to have many diverse opinions on about nearly everything? And wouldn’t it be totally normal, natural to be allowed to share such opinion without having to think about consequences?

I think it would and I think it should and yet it is not, unfortunately not.

Certain interest groups are occupying specific topics and manage them in a way that is worrisome to me because they are trying to imply theis own moral standards by not accepting the fact that other people may have different opinions, feelings, thoughts on one and the same topic and even worse (and this is closing the circle to today’s topic) create a culture of what I call “collective outrage” by blaming people of being of different opinion. I think this is unacceptable, especially in a democratic environment, because such behaviour kills free and individual thinking and collective debates and eventually democracy. One does not necessarily always have to like what ones hears or sees at all times and unless it is against the law and/or good taste (and this is very subjective) different opinion can be refreshing, interesting, eye-opening or at least lead to some additional thinking.

Ladies and Gentlemen, what do you think?

Please let me know your views and reply to my thoughts, but if you are sharing your viewpoints, please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:

smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

Ladies and Gentlemen, I wish you a great day and weekend.

Kind regards.

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li
Web: www.incrementum.li