Author: Stefan Markus Kremeth

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

“Learning and enjoyment are the secrets to a fulfilled life. Learning without enjoyment hardens. Enjoyment without learning stultifies.”

Richard David Precht

U.S. Inflation Expectation

Inflation in the USA is easing noticeably, fuelling the financial markets’ hopes of an interest rate turnaround in September. Last Friday, weak labour market figures reinforced the conviction in the US markets that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut key interest rates in September. The Atlanta Fed’s nowcast (GDPNow) describes the US GDP trend for the second quarter of 2024. The latest estimate fell to just 1.5%. This is the lowest estimate for Q2 2024 to date. Real US GDP growth in Q1 2024 was 1.4%. A 1.5% in the second quarter would mean that US growth for the first half of 2024 is below expectations of 2.0%. The 5-year break-even inflation rate currently stands at 2.22%. It is close to the level of the previous week. There are no signs of inflation flaring up again.

Department of Labour in Washington

Yesterday’s inflation numbers by the Department of Labour in Washington showed that the June inflation rate fell surprisingly significantly to 3% from 3.3% in the previous month. This represents the lowest reading in the current year. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a slightly higher figure of 3.1%. Even more noteworthy is the fact that June prices fell by 0.1%, while experts expected an increase of 0.1%.

September Interest Rate Cut

These numbers had an immediate impact on future markets. Following the surprisingly good data, the probability of a September interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve is now estimated at 85%, up from around 70% just before the publication of the inflation numbers.

U.S. Interest Rates Development

The 10-year US yield already ended trading last week at 4.28%, thus below the 1-year moving average and the 200-day line. It not only closed the price gap but fell below it, which is a negative sign. (The weaker the US economy and US inflation, the more yields are likely to fall). However, Mr Powell did not indicate any immediate interest rate cut during his recent performance before Congress members. I suppose this will change in the near-term future.

UEFA EURO 2024

Ladies and Gentlemen, the European Football Championship is over for Germany and Switzerland. Hans and I will support Spain or England. Despite the elimination, I am happy about the Swiss team’s performance. For the last few weeks, the media over here concentrated on issues other than immigration and war thanks to EURO 2024, Switzerland’s good performance, and, again, at least here in Switzerland, Taylor Swift, who gave two apparently remarkable concerts. This was a fantastic and more than welcome break.

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 153
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

“I never won a fight in the ring; I always won in preparation.”

Muhammad Ali

Symbolic Politics in Asset Management

There are more styles in asset management than most investors anticipate. In principle, this is fantastic as it allows investors to choose the style of their preference or even to mix styles. The problem is that not all asset managers are equally loud when selling their case, and some asset managers act as if they have found the holy grail of asset management, which, of course, is absolute BS. Pardon my French! As I mentioned before, it almost seems that some asset managers are in a kind of religious war over the only true doctrine and insist that their view of the world and their investment approach is the only correct one; obviously, others claim the opposite. This leads to systemic entrepreneurial rivalry among banks, asset managers, analysts, etc., and I am not convinced this is only good for investors, as they may get carried away by hidden marketing in colourful brochures without really understanding the underlying concept. Unfortunately, the media plays along, especially if they get paid for it. This, Ladies and Gentlemen, is a genuinely aberrant development if you ask me.

Our Private Clients

At Incrementum AG, we are unwavering in our commitment to our clients’ understanding and satisfaction. We offer only one mandate style for private clients: equity-based and cashflow-producing. In every quarterly report to our clients, we reiterate the basics of our approach, ensuring that every single one of our private clients fully comprehends the concept. If our approach is not suitable for a client, we are dedicated to helping them find a more suitable solution at another bank and/or asset manager. Our clients’ understanding and satisfaction are at the core of our operations, and we value their trust in us.

Why are we doing this

Our approach at Incrementum AG is designed to avoid short-term tactical decisions. We believe that if our investors understand the concept, we are not forced to adopt such tactics to please clients in the short term. Instead, we can adhere to our well-founded and clearly defined investment approach without fear of short-term dissatisfaction. This approach not only makes sense for our clients but also for us, as it allows us to focus on the long-term strategy and the best long-term interests of our clients.

UEFA EURO 2024

Again, the European Football Championship seems to have succeeded. It still feels like a holiday from life and the daily flood of negative news that the media landscape of the past few years has produced. I am even happier than last week because Switzerland made it to the quarterfinals and will play England on Saturday. Hans is also super happy because Germany will play Spain this evening. Ronni, on the other hand, is disappointed because Austria was eliminated by Turkey despite having had much more ball possession and many more chances to score.

What we can learn from football

We have our own WhatsApp chat group among Incrementum AG’s partners. When Switzerland and Germany made it into the next round, we followed the matches and sent messages to support our respective partner’s teams. We cheered on our partners’ teams, were happy for them to win, and congratulated each other or, as was the case for Austria after the bitter elimination, tried to console Ronni. Emotions are important!

Muhammad Ali

What can we learn from Muhammad Ali’s “I never won a fight in the ring; I always won in preparation”? When choosing an asset manager, try to prepare yourself. Why not with the help of a decision-making matrix? (My kids would laugh because I always tell them to use a decision-making matrix for complex decisions, especially when choosing their partners). But I am convinced it helps Ladies and Gentlemen; if you think about your requirements, write them down and compare them to the offerings in the market. Like this, you may win thanks to preparation.

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 153
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

“Tis not unreasonable for me to prefer the destruction of the whole world to the scratching of my finger.”

David Hume

Bank of America monthly survey

Bank of America (BofA) delivers revealing data from monthly surveys among global fund managers. I like looking at those surveys and seeing these fund managers’ views on various topics. BofA’s latest monthly global fund manager survey shows a shift in fund managers’ preferences regarding global economic activity expectations. According to that survey, the “hard landing” camp is still in retreat, with only 5% of fund managers expecting a recession. However, the number of “no landing” supporters has also shrunk in the last two months, meaning that both the significant pessimists and optimists are on the retreat. The fund managers’ cash positioning stands at a mere 4.0%, while they keep an overweight in equities of 39%, which is as high as in Q4 of 2021. Noteworthy, I would think.

Risks according to the survey

Regarding the most significant risks, inflation remains the biggest concern for fund managers, although it is receding. Geopolitical concerns are in second place, and the US election is in third place. On the other hand, these concerns are on the rise. The US election in November 2024 is approaching and will be more prominent in the media in the coming weeks and months, and this influences fund managers’ (and all other people’s) thinking. As I mentioned in earlier editions of “Stefan’s Weekly”, I believe from a stock market perspective, there is little uncertainty for investors, as both US presidential candidates have already been in office for one term, and there is, therefore, little potential for surprises from a purely economic perspective. With regard to the second half of 2024, fund managers see Europe likely to perform slightly worse than the USA. The quintessence of stock market performance is a deterioration in economic activity.

UEFA EURO 2024

So far, the European Football Championship seems to have succeeded. It feels like a holiday from life and the daily flood of negative news that the media landscape of the past few years has produced with almost relish. I am happy that Switzerland is still in the tournament and will play Italy on Saturday. Hans is happy that Germany will go through to the next round as group winners and ahead of Switzerland. And Ronni is ecstatic because Austria is going into the last 16 as group winners in an adamant group with France, the Netherlands and Poland.

Wrong decision, or what we can learn from football

Ladies and Gentlemen, we are all human; we make mistakes, so this probably will not surprise you. In football, wrong decisions happen constantly, less today than before VAR, micro-chips in the ball, high precision cameras on drones, and all of those technical gadgets, but mistakes inevitably still happen. During and after football matches, there are discussions about off-sites, penalties, fouls, mistakes by referees, and you know what? This is fantastic because people are discussing, and even if they are not of the same opinion, with very few exceptions, they accept the result, take it from there and go on. This part of the game of football, which also involves wrong decisions, therefore has a not insignificant quality, and it is precisely this quality that can be found everywhere in life, both on a small and a large scale, and we maybe should, therefore not be tempted always to try to eliminate different opinions and equalise everyone and everything.

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 153
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

“You’ll never find a rainbow if you’re looking down.“

Charlie Chaplin

Update

Before all my readers go on vacation, I figured sending you an update on the Incrementum 2024 Year-End Competition would be appropriate. When I was writing this “Stefan’s Weekly”, the prices for the S&P 500 stood at 5’487.89 Points, for Gold at 2’355.48 and for Nvidia at 137.55 (after the 10 for 1 stock split).

S&P

So far, the highest bet on the S&P comes from Dario and stands at 5’651; Barbara’s bet is only one point behind 5’650 and the lowest at 4’000 and comes from Attila.

Gold

So far, the highest bet on gold stands stems from Hans at 2’500 and the lowest at 2’050.

Nvidia

Okay, Ladies and Gentlemen. Barbara’s highest bet on Nvidia is 1’250, and Adrien’s lowest is 195 a, and this was before the split. For me, almost anything is possible in this stock.

My bets         

I like to be transparent every year. However, I am not sure if I already let you know, so my bets are Gold 2’250, Nvidia 999, and the S&P 5’220.

Fingers Crossed

I keep my fingers crossed for all of you and look forward to sending this one-ounce silver coin to the winner at the end of the year.

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 153
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

“If printing money would end poverty, printing diplomas would end stupidity.“

Javier Gerardo Milei

Your E-Mails

I receive more and more e-mails from readers asking where markets are heading. I personally believe markets are reasonably stable. I am not too afraid of an imminent market crash; inflation seems to be under control. Surprisingly, most companies we invest in for our clients report even better numbers than we expected, leading to a much-appreciated side effect of increasing dividends. So far, so good.

ECB

The first interest rate cut in years was much expected, and still, it was a cut. Some market participants will always see the glass half empty. The fact is that the ECB cut its base rates today by 0.25%.

Crisis

In financial markets, there is always more not-crisis than crisis. Why some investors gear their portfolios continuously versus “more crisis” is a mystery to me. We see constant political crises seemingly all over the place. I do not think this is going to disappear all too soon. But even in such political crises, many companies deliver positive cashflows, which investors can harvest.

War?

Currently, I am less afraid of a global war than I am of the effects of tariffs and sanctions. Tariffs and sanctions have a terrible impact on the global economy and global wealth and usually hurt large parts of a population rather than the people they are directed at.

Crash?

Do I see an imminent crash looming around the corner? No, I do not. Do I exclude a crash? No, of course not. Crashes are part of the game.

Political influence

Yes, Ladies and Gentlemen, politics may influence financial markets. However, this is primarily short-term for global markets. Politics usually have a very limited long-term impact on global markets as such, while local markets, i.e. like the U.K. ever since Brexit, may be hurt for quite some time. Furthermore, international companies as actors in a global marketplace prove to be relatively resilient as they can shift their businesses from region to region, perhaps losing market share for some time, operating on negative cash flow for a quarter or two, but surviving and prospering after a while in a new setting.

The U.S.

Am I afraid of the outcome of the U.S. presidential elections in Q4 2024 in regard to financial markets? No, I am not particularly afraid; I am fascinated and surprised to see that these are the best candidates the U.S. can produce and offer to its voters in 2024. Nevertheless, the U.S. is still a constitutional state with checks and balances, and therefore, I suppose there is no need to be exceptionally afraid.

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

“If I say something right that the wrong people like, then the right thing doesn’t automatically become wrong.“

Andreas Rebers, cabaret artist

Dissent

My preferred definition of “dissent” in financial markets emphasizes the value of differing opinions or views between market participants, analysts, or other experts. These variations can span across various aspects of the financial markets, such as the preference of certain asset classes, the valuation of assets, the direction of share prices, interest rate trends, or the overall economic situation. It’s crucial to understand that having different points of view in financial markets (and everything else) is not only normal but also beneficial, as these are influenced by many factors, including uncertainty.

Consistency

Ladies and Gentlemen, you know, my partners just published their “In Gold we Trust Report.” My last “Stefan’s Weekly” was dedicated to it. Many thanks for the many positive feedbacks by mail and on LinkedIn. I truly believe this report represents an excellent piece of work, regardless of whether one likes gold or not. Personally, I prefer “productive”, i.e. cash flow-producing assets, but I am always intrigued by the quality of my partners’ arguments. However, sometimes, I receive a comment or two from “irritated” friends and/or readers claiming that I was not consistent in my “thinking” by highlighting non-productive assets while otherwise advocating cash flows as “the most important thing”. The only thing I can say is that to me, this is never a question of ideology but common sense. And common sense in financial markets, as everywhere really, is to look at and listen to different perspectives.

Ideology

This brings me back to my “Stefan’s Weekly” from some weeks ago. If I try not to be caught up by ideological thoughts, I very much feel like I can appreciate someone’s work, thoughts, etc., even if I am not sharing every aspect of that person’s opinion. Furthermore, I also think it would be presumptuous to believe that I/we know or understand everything, especially since understanding in the sense of comprehending does not necessarily mean knowing something or someone 100%. Why is it that in today’s world, I almost feel people are obsessed with being irritated, outraged or offended? Ladies and Gentlemen, dissent is healthy! It makes us think and question our own beliefs.

Equities

Of course, I am still a great believer in equity investments. Statistically, no other asset class has performed better over the last 100+ years. Volatility may be an issue for some investors; I do understand that. Yet, in every society, people’s demands are rising faster than the economy allows, and thus, solid companies (and governments) are bound to grow. If I could invest in governments, I probably would, as governments have a monopoly and can raise their prices at will and grow incessantly. Governments produce crazy cash flows. Most of them have a spending issue, but that, I believe, could be taken care of. Anyway, since I cannot invest in governments, I mainly invest in equities of solid cash flow-producing companies instead while trying to stay diversified by using a multi-asset approach.

Today’s quote

I did not choose today’s quote by chance. I very much think the German cabaret artist, musician and composer Andreas Rebers is correct in claiming that if “I say something right that the wrong people like, then the right thing doesn’t automatically become wrong.” By the way, this is also true for politics. Think about it.

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

“Plurality of opinions is the engine of democracy.“

Hannah Arendt

My partners Ronni and Mark

Every May, my partners, Ronald P. Stöferle and Mark J. Valek, look horrible, overtired, exhausted, and still happy. This is because the “In Gold We Trust” report is due every May, and until it is published, especially towards the end of the production phase, they are committed to giving their hearts and selling their souls to give you and us another fantastic reading experience. Sleepless nights, coordinating dozens of people, proofreading, and preparing press conferences and interviews culminate after months of hard work in a few concentrated days.

IGWT 2024 introduction video

First, I am happy to share the introduction videos in English and German with you. Please feel free to click on the following links to watch them. Ronni points out the critical points of this year’s report.
Video presentation: In Gold We Trust report 2024 – English
Video presentation: In Gold We Trust report 2024 – German

IGWT 2024 “The New Gold Playbook”

Second, I am happy to share with you the reports that can be downloaded in extended and compact versions via the following links:
English                  German
Compact versions here:
English                  German                 Spanish

Thanks

Many thanks to Ronni, Mark, our assistants Jeannine, Lois and Richard (who just passed his final CFA exams and became an official CFA chart holder), as well as all our external experts and helping hands, for your outstanding work again. Every year, I feel like it cannot get any better, and every year, you prove me wrong! Thank you!

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

“It’s warmer inside the herd; it can be very cold outside of it.“

Attributed to: Jean Marie Eveillard

Last week’s «Stefan’s Weekly»

Many thanks to all the readers who sent in their comments. It was overwhelming to receive so many positive emails full of compliments. Many thanks, indeed! Let me take my last week’s thoughts just a little further in today’s “Stefan’s Weekly”.

The effects of imprinting

Imprinting is a rapid and relatively permanent learning process that occurs during critical periods. It impacts an individual’s behaviour, relationships, and overall development. imprinting primarily relates to biological and cultural learning, yet it indirectly influences our ideologies. Cultural, political, and cognitive factors interact to shape our worldview, and early imprints play a significant role in this process. In other words, most of us should not overestimate our own ideologies, as they are usually the result of imprinting during critical periods in our lives.

Imprinting in asset management

In asset management, imprinting during critical periods may play a significant role, i.e., losses during a market crash, the Great Financial Crisis, or hypes of tech, biotech, meme stocks, or any other such past and possibly future scenario. Then, by definition, the most sensible allocation of available funds cannot be taken for granted. Fear and greed influence the way we think and act. Ladies and Gentlemen, it is not an appropriate attitude, yet we are not immune to it.

A good way to invest

You may ask, “What is a good way to invest, then?” That is a valid question! The answer is: “It depends!” It depends on your views, investment horizon, investment preferences, risk capacity, and willingness to take risks. I generally like the idea of a competition of ideas for the most sensible allocation of available funds because I believe funds should be able to achieve their maximum effect. Personally, I have always liked cash flow-producing investments, and you know what, when my partners and I started Incrementum in 2013, we went financially through challenging times because cash flows did not match costs during the first years of developing our business, and I probably got further imprinted with this idea of the importance of regular cash flows.

What we do for our private clients

We very much believe in long-term investing. Progress usually takes time, especially in asset management. A good portfolio takes time to develop, grow, and progress; we also think it needs some basic maintenance. For our private clients, we try to find cash flow-producing investments at sensible valuations within the defined investment universe across various sectors, intending to lead to sensible diversification. In those portfolios, we seek to avoid ideological and short-term thinking. It is a predominantly bottom-up approach, yet we always look at the macro environment for indications of the potential development of our investments. Still, we are deliberately not trying to call the market but rather stick to a company’s fundamentals in the expectation of gushing cash flows.

The effect of compounding

Compounding positively influences performance due to the regular reinvesting of cash flows generated in our portfolios. The pleasant side effect of this compound interest effect is its intrinsic inflation protection.

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

“It is the duty of the human mind to understand that there are things it cannot understand.“

Soren Kierkegaard

Ideology – general aspects

Liberal, democratic structures based on capitalism no longer seem to be desired by a considerable number of voters. Ideological views are advocated with a vehemence that leaves almost no room for other views. Black or white, no shades of grey or even colours seem acceptable. Yet, we humans are so incredibly individual by nature and definition that it never ceases to amaze me how we willingly allow ourselves to be pressed into a mould. I am aware that the psychological element of belonging consciously or unconsciously exerts a great influence on our behaviour, and yet this ideological groupthink frustrates me; in this way, I believe individual narcissism has taken on an unhealthy dimension and tolerant and broadly diversified community-building appears to become ever more difficult.

What is in it?

I sort of see what is in it for ideological leaders and why they want to push their ideology. For them, it is a question of fame, money, and power. However, what on earth is in it for the followers? Belonging to the “good” guys (because their opponents are always the bad guys), or maybe it is the feeling of grasping the “real” idea? It amazes me that even reasonably well-educated contemporaries seem to develop difficulties abstracting and, therefore, simply do not have the mental capacity to avoid being taken in by ideologies. Quite frankly, ideological leaders are not trying to convince you, me, us because they like you, me, us; they do not even know you, me, us. They just want you, me, us because every follower gives them more fame, more money, and more power.

Ideology in asset management

Yes, Ladies and Gentlemen, these thoughts of mine were, of course, just an introduction to the topic. I am primarily concerned with the influence of ideologies on your and our asset management efforts. The same structure as mentioned above applies to asset management. If the tendency to be ideologically blinded and the will to have seen it coming at some point is weighted higher than the need for regular and reasonably evenly distributed returns from a diversified approach, then in my opinion, the awareness to abstract and thus the capacity to pursue a sensible investment approach is lacking. This is where our responsibility as educated individuals in asset management comes in. We need to exercise critical thinking and not be swayed by the allure of ideologies. It is also true in asset management that ideological leaders primarily seek fame, money, power and probably even much more money just because more is more.

Are we fit enough?

Hmhhh, Ladies and Gentlemen, if ideologies become more important to us than the big picture, then we should not be surprised if the happiness of the moment takes precedence over the happiness of our personal “long-term balance sheet”. This, Ladies and Gentlemen, at least to me, would mean we are probably not fit enough to prosper in life in general or as in this working hypothesis in asset management.

Ladies and Gentlemen
As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

“I’m afraid the masquerade is over…”

From the song “The Masquerade is Over” by Allie Wrubel & Herb Magidson

What if China

What if China, as suggested in a recent article in a biweekly Swiss financial newspaper, exports goods at subsidised prices to markets outside China due to sluggish domestic market activity just to keep Chinese GDP growth up?

Inflationary trends

While, as I did write in my “Stefan’s Weekly” for the last few months on several occasions, I was very cautious about the overconfidence in the markets about forecasted, or should I write hoped for, multiple interest rate cuts by Western central banks, today I feel the opposite. I now believe there is too much pessimism in the market. When I now read the first news coverage mentioning that the U.S. Fed will not reduce its base rates in 2024, I feel confident they will.

Chinese impact on global trade

One sign of the unloading of overcapacity is the marked increase in China’s export share of the global market. Compared to 2019, the eurozone recorded a significant decline in industrial exports in relation to global industrial production, while China achieved a considerable increase. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen explained in an interview after her visit to China last week that new tariffs against China are possible because: “we are concerned about a possible increase in Chinese exports in sectors with large overcapacity.” Western consumers may welcome the low prices of Chinese products, but domestic companies and concerns about economic growth will pressure governments in industrialized nations. Tensions in global trade are, therefore, likely to escalate further. What would that mean for Western (and other) economies?

One simple conclusion

While inflation in many Western countries still exceeds central banks’ targets, China is currently threatened by deflation. A straightforward conclusion could, therefore, be that deflation will turn on stage again in Europe and the U.S.. If subsidised inexpensive products of relatively good quality from China enter global markets, they will displace more expensive products from Western manufacturers. The US and Western countries are criticizing “unfair trade practices” by the People’s Republic. It seems no measure is ruled out to combat the Chinese government’s “unfair practices” in international trade.

Second simple conclusion

And yet, I would not rule out economic growth in Western economies may stall, which could rein in inflation and lead to a reduction in base interest rates. We will see soon enough, Ladies and Gentlemen.

Sarah Vaughan

And now let’s listen to “I’m afraid the masquerade is over” interpreted by wonderful Sarah Vaughan: Sarah Vaughan – (I’m Afraid) The Masquerade Is Over (youtube.com).

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li