Sensual Economics: Unveiling Financial Markets, Ideologies, and Seductive Misconceptions

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen


”The level of immaturity is beyond words.”

Sen. Rand Paul

A Deeper Look at Wealth / Part I: A Philosophical Approach to Wealth

I sincerely appreciate your thoughtful messages and generous compliments regarding last week’s “Stefan’s Weekly.” I shared your feedback with Anton, who was truly honoured by your kind words.
@ Adrian: During the summer, you will receive responses to your inquiries.
Thank you, Ladies and Gentlemen, once again!

The Swiss National Bank

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has reduced its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, bringing it to 0%. This decision is a response to the uncertain economic landscape, the strong Swiss franc, and the persistently low inflation rate, which dipped slightly into negative territory in May. The appreciation of the Swiss Franc is a burden on exports, tourism, and, among others, Swiss pension schemes.

Federal Reserve / Sensual Economics

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve signalled its intention to adopt a wait-and-see approach regarding future developments. Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues in monetary policy decided to maintain interest rates within a range of 4.25% to 4.5% for the fourth consecutive meeting, citing a high level of uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, though noting that it has lessened somewhat. Additionally, officials revised their projections for economic growth this year downward, while simultaneously raising their forecasts for unemployment and inflation.
The pivotal excerpt from the remarks made by Powell that contributed to the subsequent elevation in bond yields was the following:”Ultimately, the cost of the tariff must be paid, and some of it will be passed on to the end consumer. We know that’s coming, and we want to see a little bit of that before we make judgments prematurely.”
Ladies and Gentlemen, this perspective makes a lot of sense to me! The Federal Reserve maintains its independence and does not yield to political pressure, while it appears to be taking its mandate very seriously.

Crude Oil

The interplay between geopolitical conflicts and fluctuations in food prices may significantly intensify economic pressures faced by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell during the summer months. An increase in oil prices is also indeed correlated with elevated inflationary expectations within the economy.

Political Views and Seductive Misconceptions in the Markets

Finally, I often receive emails from readers seeking clarification on my political views. At my core, I am a freedom-loving individual who supports a limited role for the state. However, I strive to remain open-minded and avoid rigid ideologies, as my primary focus is as an asset manager. My main objective is to identify opportunities within the financial markets. Over the years, I have come to recognise that some of the most lucrative deals arise when widespread beliefs are based on seductive misconceptions or ideologies.

Ladies and Gentlemen

Feel free to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 153
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

A Deeper Look at Wealth / Part I: A Philosophical Approach to Wealth

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen


”It Ain’t What You Don’t Know That Gets You Into Trouble. It’s What You Know for Sure That Just Ain’t So.”

Mark Twain

 

In May, I had several conversations with my friend Anton, who lives in Oxford (UK) and works in the financial services sector. He is interested in literature, philosophy, and theology. We were discussing finance and wealth, and the idea emerged to publish a series of texts over the summer on the topic of wealth. Anton authored the texts while I assisted with the editing.

In that series of articles, we will examine the familiar term “wealth” and aim to gain a deeper understanding of its meaning. Below is the first article in this series. It analyses wealth from a financial perspective but with a philosophical bent.

The article that follows will explore wealth from a metaphysical perspective, examining what wealth is, how it comes into being, and its connection to related concepts, such as knowledge. Then, a cultural perspective will be offered in a third article, examining the concept of wealth through the lens of human relationships. Finally, we will conclude with the fourth article that will bring all of this together, offering, hopefully, a richer understanding of the concept of wealth.

Part I: A Philosophical Approach to Wealth 

The geopolitical and financial events of the last five years have changed how many investors and market commentators perceive wealth. Phrases like “long-term,” “capital allocation,” and “risk mitigation” often revolve around the concept of wealth, which remains somewhat elusive.

This ambiguity is understandable. While the notion of risk has become more tangible, the definition of wealth remains vague. Traditionally, volatility, market concentration, and the correlation among asset prices were the primary concerns. However, following the Global Financial Crisis, liquidity risks were added to this list. Since 2020, geopolitical tensions have become more pressing, and numerous other developments have contributed to the ever-expanding concept of risk.

In light of the evolving understanding of risk, what does wealth mean? Does the concept of wealth expand alongside our definitions of risk? How much does wealth relate to money, and what kind of money? How does it connect to other assets? What is the relationship between wealth and luxury? Are these terms synonymous or not? Ultimately, what do we truly mean by wealth?

We could attempt to answer these questions using a conventional approach, which might involve consulting well-known reports on global wealth produced annually by firms like UBS, Allianz, or Knight Frank. These reports typically define wealth as the total value of assets. However, the circumstances we face today necessitate a shift or change in our approach.

There are different types of change, but the most impactful ones can be categorised as either revolutionary or renewing. J.R.R. Tolkien, the beloved English author, articulated this distinction brilliantly. He argued that revolution represents a forceful break from the past, discarding old methods and traditions. We have witnessed this in historic events such as the French Revolution of 1789, as well as during the tragic upheavals of the 20th century in Russia, China, Iran, and elsewhere.

Conversely, Tolkien described renewal as the old reimagined, previous understandings and methods enriched for a world that is in constant flux. As the pre-Socratic philosopher Heraclitus observed, “No man ever steps in the same river twice; for it’s not the same river, and he’s not the same man.” Just as a river changes, so does our world.

**The Notion of Renewal in the Concept of Wealth**

When we apply the idea of renewal to the concept of wealth, we combine conventional methods of evaluating wealth with a philosophical perspective. This approach aims to provide a more dynamic understanding of wealth.

Why use philosophy as the lens through which to examine wealth? The term “wealth” often brings to mind various concepts: money, effort, time, risk, politics, luxury, value, and knowledge. To understand whether these concepts are genuinely connected to wealth, we first need to define what we mean by “wealth.” Moreover, to achieve a comprehensive understanding, we must not only describe each of these concepts but also explore their precise relationship to wealth if such a relationship exists. This task is fundamentally philosophical, although it may exceed the scope of our current discussion. Nonetheless, it is worthwhile to make a brave attempt at redefining wealth.

Searching for definitions of concepts was one of Socrates’ primary intellectual pursuits. In many of Plato’s dialogues, Socrates employs questioning to clarify notions by arriving at their definitions. However, as shown in Plato’s dialogues, this method is not always productive. A potentially better, though still imperfect, approach is found in Aristotle’s theory of causes, which he elaborates in his works “Physics” and “Metaphysics.”

Before we proceed, it is important to define a key term that will frequently appear in our exploration of wealth: “object.” In philosophy, an “object” refers to anything we examine. For instance, knowledge can be an object of philosophical inquiry, known as epistemology. Knowledge is abstract and intangible, while the object of examination can also be a material entity, like a bronze statue, which Aristotle exemplifies. The crucial point is that “object” denotes what we focus our thoughts on, which, in this case, is the concept of wealth.

We begin with the material cause, which answers the question, “What is it made of?” UBS distinguishes between financial and non-financial wealth. When combined, these two categories yield total wealth. Financial wealth consists of “assets that can easily be converted to cash,” including equities, bonds, mutual funds, savings accounts, and other securities traded in financial markets.

Non-financial wealth, on the other hand, comprises “land, real estate, and other tangible assets” that cannot be readily traded on financial markets and are recommended as long-term investments, unlike financial assets, which may not be perceived similarly. Therefore, wealth consists of different types of assets. This traditional definition of wealth is not particularly novel.

Next, we examine the formal cause, which addresses the question, “What is it?” This inquiry is the most complex in philosophy, as it relates to the core of metaphysical thought. As the German thinker Martin Heidegger would argue, it concerns the question of Being or existence. However, for our purposes, we need to simplify the matter. We should ask: What kind of object is wealth, simple or complex? The UBS report informs us that wealth is a complex entity comprising various components known as assets. At first glance, this answer appears straightforward, but it conceals significant complexity. Consider two individuals, A and B, both possessing equal wealth of $100 million. Person A’s wealth comprises 20% cash and 80% land, while Person B’s wealth consists of 80% cash and 20% land. Despite both being labelled as “wealth,” is there truly no distinction between tangible and intangible assets, such as meadows, woods, gold, and the trust in government that underpins fiat money? I would contend, perhaps without causing too much controversy, that there is indeed a distinction, and our understanding of what we term “wealth” requires deeper consideration.

Meanwhile, we have the efficient cause, which addresses the question, “Where does change come from?” The simple answer, in this context, is that changes in wealth arise from fluctuations in the value of the assets that constitute that wealth. In other words, this is a matter of value. What determines the value of something? What influences its value, either increasing or decreasing it, so that a particular asset, be it precious metal, a painting, a plot of land, cash, or claims to future cash flows, can be regarded as part of the intricate entity we call wealth? How should we understand value as it relates to wealth?

Value is intrinsically linked to human psychology, economic activity, and legal systems. This philosophical perspective highlights how the term “wealth” is interconnected with various concepts that need to be considered independently and then in relation to wealth itself.

Finally, we arrive at the final cause, which answers the question, “What is its purpose?” We can outline three primary aims of wealth. First, wealth offers a sense of security, acting as a safety net against the uncertainties of nations and economies. It serves as an anchor in the turbulent river of our ever-evolving world. Second, wealth acts as a source of daily income. Third, it provides resources necessary for maintaining a specific standard of living, which can vary in luxury not solely based on the changing value of the assets themselves but also on the behaviours of those who claim ownership of these assets at any given time.

In conclusion, we can define wealth as a complex object comprising various components collectively referred to as assets. These assets can be tangible or intangible, liquid or illiquid, and their value can fluctuate based on a combination of cultural, economic, and legal factors. Wealth serves to provide security in an uncertain world, to generate income, and ultimately to act as a resource for sustaining a particular standard of living, which depends on individuals’ spending habits. This definition refines the traditional understanding of wealth through philosophical inquiry.

In the following article, we will look at wealth from a metaphysical perspective. This will require us to delve even deeper into the realm of philosophy, but it will ultimately enable us to extract a richer understanding of what wealth truly is.

Ladies and Gentlemen

Feel free to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li.

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 153
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

2025 Year-End Competition; an Update

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen


”The USA is responsible for less than 15% of world trade. What happens to the world trading system now will be decided by the other 85 per cent.”

Professor Richard Baldwin

 

Elon Musk’s statement, “I think a bill can be big or beautiful. I don’t know if it can be both”, a bill he described as a “disgusting abomination”, and especially his tweet “without me, Trump would have lost the election, Dems would control the House and the Republicans would be 51-49 in the Senate”, makes me wonder if they are still best friends, and if not, what will be the consequences?

Update

Anyway, before all my readers head off on vacation, I thought it would be fitting to provide an update on the Incrementum 2025 Year-End Competition. As I write this edition of “Stefan’s Weekly,” the prices stand as follows: Silver at USD 35.62, the Shanghai Composite at 3,376.20 points, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yields 4.37%.

Silver

No modifications have been made to our “betting landscape” thus far. Hans continues to hold the highest bid at USD 47.80, while Mark, a former fund manager and client, has submitted the lowest bid at USD 35.77. I think this disparity in bid amounts highlights the varying levels of engagement and risk tolerance among participants in this betting scenario.
                   

Shanghai Composite

The same principle applies to the Shanghai Composite Index, where my associate, Hans, submitted the highest bid at 3’980 points, which is marginally higher, approximately five points, than the corresponding bid submitted by Mark. In stark contrast, Niklas’s lowest recorded bid stands at 2’950 points.
 

10-Year U.S. Treasury

In the 10-year U.S. Treasury securities market, Mike has the highest recorded bet at 5.55%, while Hans maintains the lowest at 3.8%. Again, this disparity highlights a significant divergence in the gentlemen’s expectations regarding future interest rates and, thus, economic conditions. To me, this is the most interesting bet.

Closed Competition       

The competition has officially closed, and I appreciate your understanding. As mentioned in my previous update, I intend to add an additional silver coin if Dario emerges victorious once again. Dario seems to be in a league of his own; therefore, if he secures a win, I will send a silver coin to him as well as to the runner-up. This also applies if a partner of Incrementum takes home the prize.
Data will be sourced from https://marktdaten.fuw.ch/.

Fingers Crossed

I keep my fingers crossed for all participants and look forward to sending this one-ounce silver coin to the winner at the end of the year.

Addendum

Overnight, the feud between President Trump and Mr Musk has escalated; on one hand, I am surprised, and on the other, I am not. I have serious doubts that this is for the greater good of the American people.

Ladies and Gentlemen

Feel free to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li.

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 153
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Debt Delinquencies / Government Debt / Carry Trade / Interest Rates

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen


”The magnitude and speed at which these prices are coming to us are somewhat unprecedented in history.”

John David Rainey, Walmart’s CFO

In the realm of financial investments, it is essential to recognise that fear can be an inadequate guide for decision-making. Historically, evidence suggests that a long-term investment strategy, particularly one that includes allocations in robust dividend-paying equities coupled with a measured approach to market volatility, has yielded favourable outcomes.

Debt Delinquencies

According to recent data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, an increasing number of Americans are struggling to keep up with their debt payments. The percentage of credit card balances at least three months overdue has risen to its highest level in 14 years. While overall credit card balances have decreased, the share of individuals unable to meet their payment obligations has risen. In other words, US households collectively borrow less on their credit cards, yet the proportion of borrowers experiencing difficulty repaying their debts is increasing.

Interest Rates Must Go Down

Lower interest rates are crucial for governments of heavily indebted countries. Lower interest rates are also vital for consumers in countries that heavily rely on domestic consumption, as well as for homeowners relying on mortgages. As we have learned above, the proportion of U.S. borrowers experiencing difficulty repaying their debts is rising. This is particularly important because the United States benefits from robust domestic demand, with consumption accounting for approximately 70% of its GDP. If consumption increases steadily at a rate of 2%, it can contribute approximately 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth. Conversely, sluggish consumption could significantly impact the country’s overall economic performance. At the same time, the U.S. government is spending roughly 20% of its entire income on interest payments on its debt. What exacerbates the situation is that Japan, the largest creditor of the United States, and the Japanese government, which is even more indebted than the U.S. government, are currently facing significant upward pressure on long-term JPY-debt interest rates. As Albert Edwards, strategist at Société Générale, points out, “if sharply higher JGB yields entice Japanese investors to return home, the unwinding of the carry trade could cause a loud sucking sound in US financial assets.”

Carry Trade

What is the carry trade, some readers might wonder. The carry trade can be illustrated through the example of Japan and the U.S. In this scenario, investors borrow funds in a low-interest currency from a highly indebted country like Japan and then invest that money in high-interest, fixed-income products in a country with lower government debt, such as the U.S. (lower government debt is a very relative term in this example, as the effective government debt is still very high). Why is the debt situation significant? Generally, over time, the currency of a country with higher debt, such as Japan, tends to depreciate relative to the currency of a country with lower debt, like the U.S. This creates a dual benefit for investors. They not only capitalise on the interest rate differential between Japan’s low rates and the U.S.’s higher rates, but they also stand to gain from the favourable currency exchange as the USD appreciates against the JPY due to Japan’s higher government debt.

The Reverse Of The Carry Trade

What Albert Edwards, strategist at Société Générale, has attempted to explain in his FT interview is that rising yields in Japan may lead to a lower interest differential between the USD and JPY and, at the same time, may lead to a strengthening of the JPY, consequently and also driven by an unwinding of the carry trade. This makes the carry trade less profitable, if not risky.

Consequences of a Reverse of the Carry Trade

The repercussions of the unwinding of the carry trade between the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the U.S. Dollar (USD) may manifest as significant challenges in refinancing U.S. government debt. This situation could subsequently lead to elevated interest rates on U.S. government bonds, contributing to an increase in inflation and potentially precipitating an economic recession in the United States.

Expectations

What can we, therefore, expect on the interest front in the upcoming months?

European Central Bank

The ECB key interest rate (deposit rate) has been 2.25% since the meeting on 17 April. At the meeting on 5 June, it looks as though interest rates will be cut again by 25 basis points. The ECB’s target range for the deposit rate (key interest rate) is 1.54% in March 2026, meaning that the 1-month euro futures give the ECB three interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each until spring 2026.

Federal Reserve System

As of the present date, the United States’ key interest rate is positioned within a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. The Federal Reserve refrained from altering this rate during its most recent policy meeting. As indicated by futures traders, market expectations suggest the anticipation of four potential interest rate reductions over the forthcoming twelve months. Specifically, these reductions are projected to occur in September and December 2025, as well as in January and June 2026, with each cut of 25 basis points.
Additionally, analysis of Fed funds futures reveals that market participants assign a very low likelihood of any change in interest rates at the upcoming meeting scheduled for June 18.

Conclusion

It is essential to acknowledge the significance of President Trump’s actions. While he has been vocal in his appeals for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to reduce interest rates, his emphasis on tariff policies and recent tax cuts may have undermined the justification for future rate reductions. The Fed, concerned about the potential for another inflationary shock, has indicated its intention to maintain restrictive rates as a safeguard against allowing inflation to spiral out of control once again. After all, maybe “TACO” is not that bad, or at least better than unintended far-reaching economic consequences.

Ladies and Gentlemen

Feel free to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li.

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 153
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

The Very Big, Beautiful Gold Report

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen


”There is frustration with a state growing while the infrastructure is rotting.”

A quote by a journalist about the situation in Germany

 

The current fiscal policy of the United States administration, the big and beautiful bill, characterised by a combination of tax reductions and inadequate efforts at expenditure reductions, is projected to result in an exacerbated deficit. Over the past two years, the Biden administration avoided a forecasted recession by employing expansionary fiscal measures, already paying a high price. Notably, the federal deficit has thus reached unprecedented levels outside of a recessionary context. Historical comparisons reveal that the current fiscal challenges surpass those experienced during the economic downturns of the 1970s and 1980s, underscoring the severity of the present situation.

In Gold We Trust

This, Ladies and Gentlemen, is exactly why we thought it was high time to publish another edition of the Incrementum “In Gold We Trust” Report. I have included the links to the various versions of it, and for the first time, it is also available in Japanese. You know, Ronni will spend his family’s summer vacation in Japan and figured investing in his language skills would be beneficial. Therefore, why not use those newly acquired language skills for the report, right?

Links and Enjoy the Read

As every year, the report comes in various formats. I have included all of them for your convenience. Feel free to download, print and distribute them among friends and family:
English
German
Compact version – English
Compact version – German
Compact version – Spanish
Compact version – Japanese

Ladies and Gentlemen

Feel free to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li.

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 153
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

American “What Else”? A Potpourri

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen


” In a gold rush, do not invest in gold mines but in shovels.”

André Kostolany

 

Today’s “Stefan’s Weekly” is a bit of a potpourri, for which I ask your pardon. But many things happened during the last seven days, and I would like to cover them at least briefly.

The Most Famous Person Ever

Jesus Christ is universally acknowledged as one of the most renowned figures in history. He was born in Bethlehem, Palestine, to Mary, who the Bible states “was found with child of the Holy Ghost” (Matthew 1:18). He represents humanity and divinity. In contemporary times, the Pope, regarded as God’s representative on Earth, is arguably the most recognised person worldwide. Yesterday’s election of a new Pope, an American, has surprised many and presents an intriguing choice. I must admit I am positively surprised. Therefore, the most famous living person in the world is an American, yet it is not the American President.

The Wisdom Of Experience

The benefits of increased globalisation, which contributed to economic growth and sustained disinflation, are now at risk due to a reversal of that trend. As Dieter Borchmeyer, Professor Emeritus of Modern German Literature and Dramatic Theory, articulated in a recent article for the Neue Zürcher Zeitung: “Conservative reforms preserve the existing order, while revolutionary actions seek to dismantle it. Abstract political ideas often lead to ideology, which can, in turn, incite violence. In contrast, reform policies draw upon the wisdom of experience.” We should never forget what Peter Atwater teaches us: that widely shared extreme vulnerability resolves in spontaneous social movements. This is why I firmly believe that an economic environment is only good if broad sections of the population can share in the prosperity.

The Fed

Ladies and Gentlemen, according to the latest Fed statement, “the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen” since the last meeting. However, suppose that cheaper crude oil will trickle through to lower prices for American motorists at the end of the long refining process. That would present enough reason for hope that consumer confidence can be bolstered and inflation can stay under control. So maybe that justifies the expectations of rate cuts. I keep my fingers crossed, yet I am long crude oil, as I do not trust that scenario enirely.

One Last Thought

Why do politicians tend to spend ever more money? Politicians aim to win elections, and one of the most effective strategies to achieve this is by making promises or offering incentives to voters. However, these incentives often come at a cost, and that funding must originate from somewhere. In political circles, money is typically acquired in small, inconspicuous amounts (small direct or indirect taxes), so its impact on citizens goes unnoticed. Politicians may also opt to incur debts that future leaders and our children will inevitably have to address or repay long after the current officials have left office due to age. Beware!

Ladies and Gentlemen

Feel free to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li.

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 153
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

A Hidden Jewel in the Heart of Europe

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen


”The history of high tariffs shows extreme danger: 1890s McKinley Tariff led ~60% EPS drop in S&P 500; 1930s Smoot-Hawley Tariff led 70% drop.”

Societe General

 

Today’s discourse centres on the Principality of Liechtenstein, a small nation in Central Europe. I have been tasked with composing an article for the Executive Global Magazine, and I am pleased to present the findings and insights regarding this unique country. Through this examination, I aim to explain Liechtenstein’s political structure, economic landscape, and cultural heritage, hoping to contribute to a deeper understanding of its significance in a global context.

The Golden Age

But first, allow me quickly to give you my take on the purported “golden age”, which seems to commence with a pronounced false start, at least economically, marked by a significant deceleration in economic growth. This downturn can be attributed to the erratic policy trajectory of the United States government, which is expected to perpetuate high uncertainty in the financial landscape. Consequently, both investment and consumption decisions are anticipated to remain prudent in the near term. Moreover, the US economy appears poised for a summer slump, exacerbated by the increasingly evident burdens associated with tariff implementation. The current economic climate, characterised by elevated prices and diminished growth prospects, has resulted in a consequential decline in overall prosperity. This situation calls for a thorough assessment and development of strategies to enhance economic conditions. However, recent days have instilled a bit more confidence in me, as it appears that the current government in the U.S. may have paid attention to the markets and business leaders and perhaps even learned from the missteps of its initial 100 days. For my part, I choose to see the glass as half full.

Freedom

But for now, let us dig into today’s topic. Liechtenstein is distinguished by a substantial degree of individual freedom, guaranteeing strong personal asset protection for its citizens. It is also committed to fostering a robust sense of community with a strong awareness of and respect for cultural norms and local customs. Like any healthy and liberated community, Liechtenstein intends to enhance all its members’ overall quality of life. While some individuals may receive slightly less support or financial assistance from the state, this thinking still contributes to the collective well-being of society overall. In such a framework, the government serves its citizens by fulfilling essential duties while respecting their autonomy in decision-making.

Budget Management

Due to prudent budget management and an unemployment rate of only 1.6%, the country enjoys the advantages of having no national debt and reasonably low tax rates for its citizens and businesses. Therefore, the quote by Thomas Sowell, “What exactly is your ‘fair share’ of what ‘someone else’ has worked for?” could easily be attributed to a session in the Parliament of the Principality of Liechtenstein. The Parliament comprises 25 members within a single chamber, with the President and Vice-President elected during the opening session of each new year.

Community

The country enjoys low crime rates, which can be attributed in part to a strong sense of community and, in part, to stringent immigration controls. This is particularly important for such a small state, the sixth smallest in the world with only 39,330 inhabitants, as significant demographic changes could quickly threaten the nation’s identity. The government ensures the provision of essential infrastructure and basic services, allowing citizens to thrive. However, individuals must take the initiative and strive for their success. Short-term thinking is discouraged, and the Princely Family consistently focuses on generational well-being rather than quarterly results.

Full Article

To access the full article, please use the following link to download the PDF:
https://www.incrementum.li/journal/exploring-liechtenstein-a-hidden-jewel-in-the-heart-of-europe/

Ladies and Gentlemen

Feel free to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li.

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 153
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Money is a Scarce Resource

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

 

”All the socialists understand about money is that they want it from others.”
Konrad Adenauer

The Gap

US consumer confidence has yet to recover from the downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020. In contrast, the S&P 500 has reached new all-time highs, leading to a widening gap between consumer confidence and the stock market. If consumer sentiment in the US does not improve over the year, the S&P 500 will likely continue to decline. Conversely, the emergence of a low in consumer sentiment could positively impact equity markets.

Predictability

President Trump’s unpredictable stance on tariffs continues to be a factor. This week, it seems he aims to close a deal with the Chinese government, which, of course, would be highly appreciated by market participants, importers, and exporters alike. In contrast, he imposed burdens on the pharmaceutical and chip sectors last week while seeking to support the automotive industry.

The Low

The US stock market reached a low point on Tuesday, April 8th, and it appears that market participants and the current U.S. administration have recognised this as a significant low point. Ever since, there has been lots of news (and little action), still signalling a potential upward trend. Additionally, the favourable seasonality characteristics of April also seemed to benefit the markets.

Notable Selloff

Nevertheless, this year’s stock market selloff has already become one of the most notable instances of “negative wealth effects” in absolute USD terms on record. While analysts have previously attributed consumers’ sustained spending to positive wealth effects, that rationale no longer applies. Furthermore, the impressive performance of the S&P 500 over the previous year and a half has essentially been reversed.

Conclusion

Finally, Ladies and Gentlemen, it seems to me that there is a growing and widespread sentiment that many politicians demonstrate a troubling inclination that their most outstanding talent is their enthusiasm to prioritise their fleeting (often temporary) ideas rather than focusing on developing more meaningful and enduring policy initiatives. Do others share this perspective, or is it just me who feels this way?

Debt

Eventually, we will have to have a thorough discourse regarding the escalating levels of debt observed in advanced economies because money is a scarce resource, and it seems not all of our elected officials get the idea. However, I would suggest deferring this subject for a later discussion.

Ladies and Gentlemen

Feel free to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li.

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 153
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

What is the Definition of a good Deal?

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

 

”Peter Navarro is ‘truly an idiot’ and ‘dumber than a bag of bricks’.”

Elon Musk

 

International financial markets represent a significant approximation of a global consensus regarding economic perspectives. The collective knowledge and insights derived from these markets often surpass the understanding of the average political figure, investor, and journalist. In many instances, the predictions and sentiments of the financial crowd prove to be more accurate and insightful than conventional political discourse.

Mister Elon Musk

This week, Mr. Elon Musk delivered a somewhat surprising message on his online platform X, stating that Peter Navarro is “truly an idiot” and “dumber than a bag of bricks”. This comment indicates potential discord between the Tesla CEO and the President of the United States, particularly in light of the high import tariffs. The 75-year-old Navarro is regarded as a key architect of President Trump’s stringent protectionist trade policy.

Peter Kent Navarro

Who is Peter Kent Navarro? Peter Kent Navarro, born in 1949, is an American economist currently serving as the senior counselor for trade and manufacturing to the President of the United States since January 2025. He previously held key positions during the first Trump administration, initially as the director of the White House National Trade Council and later as the director of the newly established Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy. Navarro is a professor emeritus of economics and public policy at the Paul Merage School of Business at the University of California, Irvine. He has also made five unsuccessful attempts to run for San Diego, California public office.

The Power of Creating a Crisis

Ladies and Gentlemen, much depends now on how the US government further manages import tariffs. Historically, bear markets often arise from specific triggers, such as the new economy bubble in 2000, the securitisation of mortgage loans during the financial crisis from 2007 to 2009, the COVID-19 crash in 2020, and inflation contributing to the bear market in 2022. If President Trump does not make significant adjustments to his tariff policy in the coming weeks, there is a heightened risk of a “2025 tariff recession”. What we saw from the White House yesterday may be the first step in the right direction.

What Truly Defines a Good Deal?

Carl Menger von Wolfensgrün, an Austrian economist, lived in Austria from February 23, 1840, until February 26, 1921. He is recognised as the founder of the Austrian School of Economics and the Austrian marginal utility theory, which brought a transformative perspective to the theory of value and prices. His economic theories concluded, among other insights, that in an environment of free and fair trade, the marginal utility derived from a transaction can exceed the individual value of the transaction object for each participating partner. In simpler terms, the total benefit of the exchange can be greater than the sum of its parts.

Conclusion

I firmly believe an agreement should mutually benefit all parties involved, and I like Carl Menger’s take on it. After negotiating a deal, one partner may feel the terms are no longer favorable. In such instances, it is entirely reasonable to consider renegotiation. However, resorting to force or leveraging supposed strength before negotiation is not a respectable approach to me. What is your take on this?

Ladies and Gentlemen

Feel free to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li.

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
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Mail: smk@incrementum.li