All roads lead to gold

Ronald Stöferle gave a keynote speech at the 2020 Precious Metals Summit Europe. The Summit was conducted virtually from November 2 to 3.

The Stealth Bull Market

Only an alarmingly small amount of people own gold. Despite our economic situation, which speaks so much for gold. Since we are in a stealth bull market, now is the time to strengthen your investment in gold. As in the case of Rome, but there are of course several roads that lead to gold, let’s take a closer look at some of them.

 

Fiscal stimulation and price inflation

The accumulated debts, who will pay them? They will be burdened by inflation and financial repression by future generations. The big difference between the great financial crisis of 2008 and the corona crisis is that we have seen unlimited QE and fiscal stimulation. This time both are in a much closer relationship and in the process of breaking all taboos. At the moment, deflationary pressures still predominate. But the signs are pointing to a return of inflation.

 

Radical ideas on the lead

Everyone should be aware that radical ideas no longer seem so radical. In times of desperate need, central banks and governments will try everything to prevent the worst from happening. Ideas like MMT or helicopter money will then be applied. Another development is digital central bank money and the digital purse.

Will the vaccine help?

At the moment, the velocity of money in circulation has dropped dramatically. If a vaccine is now discovered, many people expect a lot of gold to be sold. But at the exact same moment, the velocity will increase and come up against the incredible amounts of liquidity. At that moment, central bankers would have to become more conservative again. But will this happen? Then inflation will return.

 

Negative rates and institutional investors

The amount of people who own gold is still extremely small. Nevertheless, we are currently seeing institutional investors, some of them well-known names, re-entering the market. A major driver of the gold price are negative real rates. This summer, the Fed made a historic decision. Not only that they are not even thinking of raising rates, no, more inflation is also desired. This is the perfect environment for gold.

 

Mining stocks and silver

Currently mining stocks are still very undervalued and very cheap compared to gold. Our current bull market is far from over. So, there is still time to get in. The same applies to commodities and silver.

 

Where is the journey heading?

For the first time in the history of the In Gold We Trust Report we have taken the trouble to create a valuation model for gold. In it we looked at the probability of the gold price changing and how it will develop. In doing so, we conservatively arrive at a gold price of $4800 at the end of this decade. But much higher values are much more probable.

 

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