Kategorie: In the Press

Warum würdest du auf nur ein Szenario setzen?

Posted on by Stefan Markus Kremeth

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

If you do want to receive this weekly message in future, you will have to confirm your subscription under:

https://www.incrementum.li/publikationen/incrementum-newsletter/

and tick the box “Stefan’s weekly” and/or the box of any other publication we produce on a regular basis.

I am sorry for the inconvenience, but we are forced to do this because of the newly introduced “General Data Protection Regulation”, which came in law this year in Europe.

But now let us quickly check out the question “why would you bet on one scenario only?” which was asked by one of my regular readers and try to find an explanation for this.

Well, I think the reason why an investor would bet on one single scenario is quite simple, if you get the scenario right and if you get the timing right, you can make a lot of money. Therefore and to some extent betting on one single scenario is speculation. But if you don’t get the scenario right or if you don’t get the timing right or if you don’t get either right you will lose money and maybe get frustrated. As one of my partners keeps saying: “it’s not about being right, it’s about making money” and he is totally right there. Now, when managing other people’s money, like in my case, because that is what I mainly do, the goal must be to protect my client’s assets and to deliver some sort of positive return over time. This is why I wrote about the toolbox-approach some time ago. Various tools for various scenarios and even better a combination of tools to reach some minimal diversification.

The world, nature, people, politics, financial markets, currencies, etc. are in constant motion. Even if you are using various tools for different market cycles and investment scenarios within your strategic or tactical asset allocation it is difficult to make money these days but by betting on one single scenario only, you most probably will miss out on a lot of (other) opportunities. Therefore, and to answer the question, I think betting on one single scenario may lead to very large profits but from my point of view I prefer at least some minimal diversification.

What do you think? Please let me know your points of view!

But please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:

smk@incrementum.li

If you are still happy to spend a quick moment with me, feel free to read this short text under the following link:

Independent and Flexible Boutique Approach

Many thanks indeed for your interest and participation!

And now, Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a great day and weekend.

Kind regards.

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth

Stefan’s weekly: Interview mit Andy Häberli, CIO von Profond.

Posted on by Stefan Markus Kremeth

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

Last week we had the chance to interview Andy Häberli, Profond’s CIO. When looking at Profond’s asset allocation one immediately notices that over 50% of all assets are invested in equities and another 30+% is in real estate. Profond invests mainly in real assets.

Now, Ladies and Gentlemen, there is a good reason for this.

At Incrementum we are also very much in favour of real assets, equities and real estate belong into this group. We furthermore like to approach financial markets with a toolbox containing various investment tools. According to investor’s needs and risk appetite we may offer individual investment solutions. The toolbox approach can be somehow compared to a medical doctor offering various medicines according to patient’s needs. Just imagine a doctor only offering one pill to cure everybody for every disease at all times. This probably would not be a very successful strategy. Same is true for approaching financial markets.

Since we cannot foresee the future and therefore cannot know where financial markets are heading, we have to develop and sometimes adapt a strategy that makes sense even during markets turmoil. A portfolio delivering regular cashflows, even if the market price of the portfolio goes up and down, is already a solid achievement. I am a firm believer of the value of positive cashflows, in fact I think cashflows are never out of fashion. If for example, you are able to generate a positive cashflow of around 4.5% p.a. over 10 years stemming from your portfolio, you have effectively built up some sort of financial safety cushion of 45% without even taking the effect of compounding into consideration.

You will still suffer and go through all the negative feelings during any potential markets crash but the great thing is that your portfolio will continue delivering cashflows regardless of the market prices of the individual holdings in your portfolio.

This, Ladies and Gentlemen, is what Mister Andy Häberli is looking at in Profond’s portfolio. Cash return on invested capital and of course he is very happy to harvest in addition price appreciation on individual investments, but it is the cashflow that makes the difference. This complex and large multi-billion Swiss Francs portfolio, managing pensions of 40’000 policy holders, is successfully run over decades including during difficult times like the financial crisis. Obviously the portfolio was hit during the financial crisis but not only did it recover but it recovered very well and exceeded its initial value by far while distributing above average payouts. This approach of seeking positive cashflows is what we are doing for years for our private clients at Incrementum,as well.

And now, Ladies and Gentlemen, please keep on sharing your thoughts and ideas with me. Please feel encouraged to do so but please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:

smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

And now, Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a great day and weekend.

Kind regards.

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth

Kommt jetzt der Crash von Bitcoin und Co., Herr Krypto-Währungsexperte?

Posted on by Mark Justin Valek

Der Bitcoin-Kurs steht zuletzt unter Druck. Seit Anfang September verlor die Cyberwährung teilweise mehr als 16 Prozent und fiel damit unter die psychologisch wichtige Marke von 7000 US-Dollar. Mark Valek vom Liechtensteiner Vermögensverwalter Incrementum über die Gründe für die fallenden Kurse, das unsichere regulatorische Umfeld und die Aussichten für Bitcoin.

Währungswettbewerb & Digitales Geld: Wie aktuell ist Hayeks Vorschlag?

Posted on by Incrementum AG

In diesem Artikel beschreibt Demelza Hays, Hayeks Vision vom staatlichen Geldmonopol und diskutiert, ob Kryptowährungen als eine effektive Lösung von Hayeks Vorschlag zum privaten Geldwettbewerb zur Überwindung des dauerhaften Missbrauchs des staatlichen Geldmonopols angesehen werden können.