Ronald Stöferle erklärt die Geschichte der Einführung eines Gold-Devisenstandards auf Basis der US-Währung und er weist auf die Gründe für eine sukzessive Abkehr vom Dollars hin.
Kategorie: In the Press
What would you do?
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen
Just imagine you were managing a multi-billion pension fund with thousands of policy holders expecting you to deliver sufficient returns in order to grant to them a pension that will allow them to pay their bills once will be retired.
What would you do? How would you allocate the money that was entrusted to you?
Ladies and Gentlemen, the largest investors on this planet are pension funds. They invest their policy holders’ money either directly or via mandates. Mandates means the pension funds give the policy holder’s money to banks, brokers, asset managers who then manage parts of the pension funds’ portfolios. Both approaches have their pros and cons but this is not part of today’s weekly.
Now, every month there is new money from pension fund policy holders’ (premiums deducted from salaries) arriving at the pension funds. Furthermore many economies still count growing working populations. This means new workers/employees joining pension funds, which again leads to more money to be managed. This money needs to be invested and it needs to yield a positive return over time. Frankly speaking, this is quite a challenge. In an environment of ultra-low or even negative interest rates, macro-economic uncertainty, and political threats, investors prefer to keep their powder dry before investing. However, eventually a pension fund manager needs to invest as cash on accounts may yield negatively, not to mention inflation, as low as it may be, it should still be that any sort of investment return covers at least underlying inflation.
I personally believe it is always interesting to think about where the largest investors, who not only manage unbelievable amounts of money but on top of that and by definition need to follow a very long-term approach, put their money.
I am curious and this is why I am asking you to let me know how you would invest your policy holders’ money, if you were a pension fund manager. I will consolidate your suggestions/ideas and then let’s see what comes out of it. Maybe we can draw conclusions from this for our own investment style.
Now, Ladies and Gentlemen, I encourage you to send me your concise ideas but please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:
Many thanks, indeed!
And now, Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a great day and weekend.
Kind regards.
Yours truly,
Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG
Financial Markets are Indifferent
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen
Welcome to 2019!
May this be a year of good health, interesting encounters and plenty of happy moments for you and your loved ones.
In this first weekly of the year, I would like to take up the issue of last year’s sell-off which occurred during the month of December. I was quite impressed and even more intrigued by what happened and the way it happened.
It was striking to see the media reaction to the sell-off, with comments and vocabulary referring to financial markets almost as if financial markets were humans, a bunch of nasty, mean and hostile guys taking away investor’s money. Quite frankly I believe the sell-off became a self-fulfilling prophecy created by media, financial experts, so-called financial experts and finally the man in the street.
Fact is, financial markets are neither hostile nor friendly they are just indifferent.
Because markets in general (including financial markets) are nothing more than places to exchange goods for goods and/or goods for money during defined times, that’s all. They were actually designed to make life easier for buyers and sellers and therefore with the comfort of humans in mind.
However, most of the market participants on the other side are real human beings (only most because there are also algo-trading-programs)and as such they are biased, nervous, short tempered, greedy, anxious, happy, educated, uneducated everything you want. Market participants get influenced by noise, media, brokers and many other factors and create hypes and sell-offs. This, as fortunate or unfortunate it may seem (depending on ones perspective or personal positioning), is normal, it’s just the way we – humans – are. It is always interesting to see how quickly we can change from being confident to being anxious and that is not only true when it comes to investments. It is pure psychology and probably dates back to the time when homo erectus started to rover the grounds.
Why would I make a point of this, because I believe that during sell-offs, like the one we have just experienced in December 2018 but also many other sell-offs many times before, there is a mismatch between the fears of crashing financial markets and the real intrinsic risk of failure of the companies whose shares are actually traded on a given financial market (stock exchange).
If you are able to detect such a mismatch and if you have the courage to go against your own fear and step in to buy equities of companies you assessed in the past and considered worthwhile owning and thus always wanted and still want to own anyway, you may get them at interesting prices, possibly enjoying price appreciation over time. Pension funds are typically buying during and after sell-offs. With their very long-term investment horizon they are predestined to buy and hold and while holding, harvesting dividends.
Ladies and Gentlemen, please keep in mind that I can’t foresee the future and that I only try to apply some common sense and that whatever I am sharing with you in my weekly mails reflects my very own personal opinion and please keep on sharing your thoughts and ideas with me. Please feel encouraged to do so but please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:
smk@incrementum.li
Many thanks, indeed!
And now, Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a great day and weekend.
Kind regards.
Yours truly,
Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG
Goldpreis-Entwicklung: Was die Experten für 2019 erwarten, Teil 2
In einem Interview mit Börse-Online erläutert Ronald Stöferle seine Meinung zur Entwicklung des Goldpreises.
Ronald Stöferle auf der Metallwoche zu China, Gold, Minen, Aktien und Cryptos
Ronald Stöferle kommt geradewegs zurück aus China, wo er in Shanghai einer 2-tägigen Goldkonferenz beiwohnte. Er erzählt von seinen Eindrücken dort, aber auch von seiner Einschätzung zur weiteren Enwicklung der Edelmetall- Aktien- und Finanzmärkte.
Im weiteren Verlauf wendet man sich der Frage zu: Warum bringt die Incrementum AG nach dem brutalen Crash von BitCoin & Co. in diesem Jahr einen Cryptofunds an den Markt? Sehen die Profis hier etwa wieder mehr Chancen, als Risiken..?
Themen der Sendung China:
Wie war die Goldkonferenz in Shanghai?
China und die Goldreserven: Was hört man im Land?
China – USA – USA – China: Der Handelsstreit
De-Dollarization: Was gibt es hier Neues?
China und das Sozialkredit-System: Alles ganz prima..?!
Der „In Gold We Trust“ – Report: 2019 neben Englisch und Deutsch auch in Mandarin
Gold: War denn nun „unten“ unten?
Silber: Noch mit quietschender Handbremse unterwegs
Minen: Darf man darüber überhaupt noch reden?
Inflation, Deflation oder Disinflation: Wo steht das Incrementum Signal aktuell?
Welche „Hürde“ muss der Goldpreis überwinden?
BitCoin &Co. nach dem Crash: Risiko oder Chance?
Leidenschaft und frohe Weihnachten
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen
December was for most of us a rather grim month with markets going down significantly. As I wrote in my previous weekly mails, this is all part of investing and we have to be able to bear the pain, else we may rather not invest at all.
Yesterday, the Fed acted according to their mandate and the major message was that the Fed did not seem to be wanting to react whatsoever to the tweets by President Donald Trump. I personally think this is very confidence inspiring as it may be seen as a clear sign of the U.S. central bank’s independence.
Now, Ladies and Gentlemen, this is my last weekly for the year and I would like to thank all of you, my readers. Thank you very much for all the interesting comments and questions.
You know, reading, looking at markets, investing, discussing scenarios, speaking and writing about all of this is my passion and I will continue doing it also in 2019 and I hope you will stay tuned and keep sending me your feedback!
I wish you all a relaxed and funky Christmas and a prosperous and inspiring 2019 !!
Many thanks for everything and kind regards.
Yours truly,
Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG
Ronald-Peter Stöferle & Yra Harris (FRA) über Gold- und geopolitische Risiken
Ronald-Peter Stöferle im Gespräch mit Yra Harris von der Financial Repression Authority über Gold und geopolitische Risiken.
Video Interview with Demelza Hays
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen
My colleague, Demelza Hays, has been interviewed by Chris Marcus from Stockpulse https://www.stockpulse.com/. I think the interview was well conducted and answers some of the questions in regard to blockchain or crypto currencies. Please feel free to enjoy the video below.
If you are interested in Incrementum’s blockchain and crypto research, please feel free to register yourself under:
https://cryptoresearch.report/
to receive your free copy of our quarterly research report.
Please do not hesitate to share your thoughts with me on the interview with Demelza or on whatever seems interesting to you or is bothering you. Please feel encouraged to do so but please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:
Many thanks, indeed!
And now, Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a great day and weekend.
Kind regards.
Yours truly,
Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG
Winter
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen
The SMI is down 7.7% so far this year, the Euro Stoxx 50 is down 13.09% so far this year, the Daxx is down 16.31% so far this year, Gold is down 4.79% so far this year, Silver is down 14.33% so far this year, Brent Crude Oil is down 10.91% so far this year and theses are by far not the worst samples. This looks like winter to me.
Ladies and Gentlemen, often I get asked why I would not mention any of the American indices. The reason for this is that we (for some years already) do not invest in American equities for our private clients and the reason we do not invest in American equities for our private clients is risk management or to some extent lack of trust. Investing always involves a risk management component and while we are fully aware of the fact that without taking risk, we cannot expect return, we still try to manage that risk according to our believes. Now, the U.S. has been acting (and not only very recently) with business partners and governments globally in a not always very trust inspiring way that has on one side been very efficient to the American authorities but on the other side been between difficult and maybe even devastating to some of those other nations and/or business partners around the globe and this is why we are of the opinion that our private clients should have the smallest exposure possible to the risk of changes of laws and/or common practices by the American government, tax authorities, Securities and Exchange Commission, etc. By investing in global enterprises incorporated outside of the U.S. our private clients already take an indirect risk of such changes and to us this is already plenty.
Now, if I use the “farming” metaphor of my last week’s weekly mail, please allow me to stretch it just a little more and add the four seasons into it and if I do that, I think we have approached the end of fall and/or the beginning of winter.
As I mentioned many times before, volatility is nothing unusual, just normal market behaviour and an unpleasant part of investment risk any investor has to live with.
Now, winter is also the time to repair your tools, check your crop, prepare the grounds so that you are ready for the planting/seeding season.
If I convert this thought into portfolio management you want to ask yourself if you still have the portfolio you want/need and if not, you want to take action and make some adjustments. There are good investment opportunities out there, the difficult part is to pick them and to pick them at the right time.
Please do not hesitate to share your thoughts with me on the interview or on whatever seems interesting or bothering to you. Please feel encouraged to do so but please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:
Many thanks, indeed!
And now, Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a great day and weekend.
Kind regards.
Yours truly,
Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG
Was wir aus der Landwirtschaft lernen können
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen
Many thanks for your feedback to my last weekly mail. Some of my readers came up with great thoughts and I will most probably use one or the other in future weeklies. I would like to thank especially Madeleine, Thomas, Robert, Scott and Anton for their inspiring reflections. Many thanks!
As some of you know, I live on a small hill in the country side of Zürich and when I look out of the window, I see cows and horses and only a few houses. Seeing farmers at work is part of every day life up here and talking to them from time to time made me think about investment processes.
Nowadays, most of us living in developed countries are used to instant gratification. People are posting pictures of their food and hope to receive likes, they are posting pictures of their cars and hope to receive likes, they are posting comments on Twitter and hope to receive likes. Instant gratification. You want a coffee, you get it immediately, you want something to eat, you get it right away, a new I-phone you get it, whatever we want we can get most of it at any moment. Instant gratification.
However, when it comes to investing, instant gratification is not all that easy to achieve.
Investing needs a strategy and it needs time, patience.
I think investing is actually a lot like farming. Before investing my clients’ money, I have to prepare the grounds. Ground preparing in my business is for example research and research is very time consuming and at times even boring and it is ongoing, it never stops but it needs to be done.
After preparing the grounds I sow the seeds, which means I make some first investments. Afterwards I nourish and cater for the investments, I add positions or let go of some. When I think the time is right, I harvest, I take profits, rake in dividends or write calls (covered only) on long positions to increase to cashflow on the portfolio.
I am fully aware that a storm can take away a part of my clients‘ harvest, this is why I am only on very, very rare occasions fully invested. Like this I always have some cash at hand to increase positions when markets are down.
That is what I am doing, not more and not less, and I keep on doing this over and over and over and over again.
And you know, Ladies and Gentlemen, I don’t think much of preparing and building up protection for this one and only very bad mega storm, almost hoping for it to arrive so that my protection works and (not to forget) my ego gets pampered. I think the opportunity cost of such a (rather risky) strategy is very high. Partial protection on the other side makes a lot of sense to me and I would highly recommend that in any sort of balanced portfolio.
Please do not hesitate to share your thoughts with me on whatever seems interesting to you or on whatever is bothering you. Please feel encouraged to do so but please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:
Many thanks, indeed!
And now, Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a great day and weekend.
Kind regards.
Yours truly,
Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG