Ronald Stöferle sieht bis Jahresende einen Kursanstieg bis auf 1450 oder sogar 1500 US-Dollar in Reichweite (aktuell: 1326 Dollar).
Die sechs Faktoren:
1. Risikostreuung
2. Politische Gefahren
3. Emanzipation vom Dollar
4. Angegriffene Notenbanken
5. Ausufernde Geldpolitik
6. Hochzeiten in Indien
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen
As announced two weeks ago I was able to interview Mr. Andreas Haeberli, CIO of Profond Collective Foundation. Please find my questions with Andy’s answers for your convenience:
Basically, my private investment activity does not differ from my professional one. The only difference is that I invest a small part of my personal wealh on a short-term basis.
Many thanks, Andy, for your time and the insight!
As always, I encourage you to send me your feedback and/or questions but please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:
Many thanks, indeed!
And now, Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a great day and weekend.
Kind regards,
Yours truly,
Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG
Gold habe sich als Krisenwährung wieder bewiesen, sagt Experte Ronald Stöferle. Der Aufwärtstrend sei weiter intakt. Vor allem, wenn die Ängste zunehmen.
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen
Did you follow my advice and spend every morning 30 to 60 seconds thinking about something positive? If so, what was the effect?
Now, last week I gave you an insight into some of my global sociocultural points of view and proposed to publish an interview with a pension fund manager for this week. The interview was conducted but the time schedule was a bit aggressive and I am not quite ready to publish the interview yet. Hopefully by the end of next week I will be and may deliver on my promise.
I have been receiving very thoughtful and interesting feedback to my last weekly mail and thus today, would like to pick the feedback of two of my readers and share Masha’s and Anton’s thoughts with you.
When thinking of current global economic policies, Masha has a picture in her mind. It is the picture of a curved (concave and convex) mirror. The sort of thing you would see in amusement parks. When you stand in front of it, reality gets distorted. I quite like that metaphor and I totally see her point, only that instead of the mirror we have some of today’s media channels and research reports by banks and brokers.
Anton’s feedback was touching on three points.
Firstly on his statement that uninterrupted growth is not possible, something I would easily agree to, second he cited a quote by Hannah Arendt: „Politics is the professional representation of vested interests”, again I can’t really argue against that one and thirdly he mentioned that we cannot borrow our way to prosperity (how I love that one!) but rather that prosperity requires sacrifices – more specifically, to get something of value tomorrow (including a better life overall) we need to give up something today (time, sleep, money, etc.). This last statement is so true and the ones who know me well, will know that I have a serious problem with today’s culture of “instant gratification”. It just doesn’t work. I always use the same metaphor. If a farmer wants vegetables, he needs to prepare the grounds, saw the seeds and only after a while will see the first signs of germinating plants.
Same is obviously true for investments. People who expect return without giving the investment time to develop, shouldn’t really invest, at least that is what I think.
As always, I encourage you to send me your feedback but please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:
Many thanks, indeed!
And now, Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a great day and weekend.
Kind regards,
Yours truly,
Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG
In einem Interview mit Biallo.de, Ronald Stöferle und Weinbeg sehen weiteres Kurspotenzial von Goldpreis in 2019.
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen
Long-term investing seen from a slightly different angle that was what my last weekly was all about. I received many questions for pension fund investment pros and am happy that my friend Andy Haeberli, Profond’s CIO, one of Switzerland’s largest collective foundations, agreed to be interviewed by me. I will hopefully be able to do the interview next week and publish it in my next edition of “Stefan’s weekly”.
Today I would like to have a look at what politics can do to help their people to prosper. I am a firm believer of the vision that politicians should primarily act in the public’s interest, however I do get the impression that some of them are primarily acting in their own interest.
First of all I determine that 10 years after the great financial crisis the global economy doesn’t look all that bad. No matter what you hear or see, it is a fact that GDP in most countries is higher and unemployment lower than before the great financial crisis. Total debt on the other side went up massively but so far did not hit economies with high inflation rates as foreseen wrongly by so many (including me).
During and after the great financial crisis, governments and central banks across the globe worked together and made it possible that we didn’t fall into a deep, deep recession followed by hyper-inflation. I believe one of the success factors was the common vision of implementing concentrated and collective action to prevent worse.
What changed in the last roughly two to years? There is this feeling of negativity and that sound of negativity and you know what? I don’t like that sound of negativity! This is the sound of populists to the right and of populists to the left and it can’t be expected to lead to anything positive! Some of those people would like to bring back “the good old days”, why? Because these were the days when children died of influenza or days of no cancer treatment or days of wars in Europe or days of countries without voting rights for women or days of exclusion of minorities, days of apartheid, days of no central heating, etc, this can’t be the goal.
Anyway, I believe that weak politicians take weak decisions and I believe that protectionism represents a risk to global economic prosperity and I believe that we have to settle for cultural and socio-economic adaptation, because not even the most powerful governments and/or central banks can perform well in a socio-economic vacuum and I believe our political leaders and also the general public need to start immediately to detoxify the current public political discourse. This is important because this negativity hinders growth and thus prosperity. It is our responsibility to elect the political leaders that can do the job.
What is your opinion?
Ladies and Gentlemen, please try one thing for yourself and please let me know if it did have an effect on you. Please spend every morning right after getting up 30 to 60 seconds thinking about something positive or about various positive things. As always, I encourage you to send me your feedback but please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:
Many thanks, indeed!
And now, Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a great day and weekend.
Kind regards,
Yours truly,
Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG
Dear investors, friends and clients,
Are we at the cusp of a Monetary U-Turn? What will the Fed do next; hike, ease, or keep their hand on the pause button?
During this quarter’s advisory board call we had a lively discussion between Jim Rickards, and special guest Trey Reik, about the Fed’s likely next move.
Trey works at Sprott USA, and has deep knowledge about gold, gold mining stocks, and monetary policy.
During the call we also talked about:
• What sort of chairman is Powell showing himself to be?
• Is institutional interest for gold finally coming back?
• How is the fed using balance sheet normalization in conjunction with interest rate policy?
• What is central bank purchasing of gold signalling to the market?
We hope that you will find our discussion insightful and inspiring!
Have a great week!
Kind regards from Liechtenstein,
Mark J. Valek & Ronald-Peter Stoeferle
Incrementum AG
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen
Many thanks for all the replies I received to my last weekly. I collected some pretty detailed answers and it seems there are some well-informed people among my readers. Thank you very much!
Let me give you a somewhat different perspective on what may signify long-term investing. I am deliberately simplifying wherever possible to make this easy to read..
Now, the biggest challenge in answering my last week’s question seemed to be the definition of „long-term“, which I believe represents one of the most important factors in managing pension fund assets.
One may argue that as a cohort, pension fund managers can probably be considered the ultimate pros, at least that is what they ought to be and a pension fund – by definition – needs to be invested very, very long-term which means pension fund managers need to find and concentrate on very long-term investments.
Here in Liechtenstein, same is true for Switzerland, employees usually follow a three-pillar pension saving scheme. Let me elaborate quickly:
Pillar one is a compulsory and defined benefit pension scheme by the government. Contributions are taken off any salary at any time during an employee’s working life. Employees know exactly what they are getting according to the number of years contributing. Pillar one only covers basic living costs it is capped but also has a floor in order to assure that every citizen, no matter of his/her contribution can rely on a minimal pension income after retirement. Investment risk is born by the government, i.e. tax payer.
Pillar two is in most cases structured as a defined benefit pension scheme. It is compulsory as well, however not organised by the government but rather by employers. Depending on how much an employee can contribute during his/her working life and depending on the investment style and long-term performance of the pension fund manager, the final pension income may vary, and it does – even big time. Investment risk is born by employees (policy holders),
Pillar three is discretionary and may be organised by employees themselves. Up to a certain amount there are tax benefits for contributors.
The by far largest part of pension scheme money is invested in pillar number one and two. This money is being invested globally and at least sometimes in accordance with the latest academic notion of modern investment principals. The investing process is supervised by local authorities/regulators.
So far so good.
If an employee starts working at the age of 20 and works until the age of 65, which is currently the regular retirement age for male employees in Liechtenstein and Switzerland, the employee contributes 45 years of monthly pension fund premiums or “savings”. The savings need to be invested and allocated in a way to keep returns as high as possible and volatility over the entire investment period as low as possible. The investment period is defined by the years any employee contributes, i.e. in our example 45 years plus the years the employee lives after retirement and receives his/her pension income. If a male employee lives until the age of 85, hence the investment period amounts to 45 years plus 20 years and therefore 65 years in total. In our example after retirement and during the last 20 years of the employee’s life, the employee now starts consuming the accumulated returns and savings.
Most of the answers I have received to my last weekly were not taking that sort of ultra long-term investment horizon into consideration. From a behavioural investment point of view this is totally understandable as our mind weighs short-term news and noise higher than long-term considerations. This can be explained psychologically, and research in this field has led to many academic papers and even a Nobel Prize in economics.
However, the quality of a pension fund manager is also (but not only) defined by how strongly he can resist short-term speculation and thus his ability to blank out anything keeping him off the track generating truly tong-term returns for his clients, i.e. pension fund policy holders.
Accordingly, quarterly earnings reports, political turmoil, tweeting politicians and trade wars can not be taken into the equation. A pension fund portfolio needs to be invested in a way that focuses on cash-flow generation over decades. Anything else would be speculation.
Just think about it, a pension fund manager can of course not foresee the future and can neither invest with the current partial U.S. government shut-down, the next financial crisis an equity bull market nor the next recession in mind. The only thing a pension fund manager can do is to use models that calculate potential return needs over the entire investment period taking underlying inflation estimates and development of demographics into the equation and than start to look for investment opportunities that match such return needs, if possible over the entire investment life cycle.
Therefore the positive side of investing really long-term is that pension fund managers don’t really need to consider daily, weekly and quarterly earnings estimates and even micro- and macro-economic comments by analysts. They don’t care about the “longest” U.S. government shut-down because even if it lasts for another few months it is just not long enough to be considered in the investment process. Any equity market crash is only a down-tick on a 65-year chart. Recession-, inflation-, deflation-fears never last 65 years, elected political leaders come and go, regulation and deregulation cycles are shorter than a 65 years investment horizon and thus even trade wars dwindle down to non-events.
Interesting perspective, no?
Now, Ladies and Gentlemen, I will try to find a pension fund manager to discuss my views on pension fund investing and hope to be able to publish a short interview within the upcoming weeks, and I encourage you to send me your feedback as always but please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:
Many thanks, indeed!
And now, Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a great day and weekend.
Kind regards.
Yours truly,
Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG
Dear investors, advisory board members and friends,
We hereby want to inform you that as of the beginning of January, our proprietary inflation indicator has switched from “FALLING INFLATION” to a full blown “RISING INFLATION” signal.
In the following please find a detailed analysis and interpretation of the Inflation Signal and our current macro thoughts, as well as the impact on the investment process.
Ladies and gentlemen, we believe that current valuations in inflation sensitive assets are a tremendous buying opportunity which we want to utilize.
Best regards,
Mark J. Valek & Ronald-Peter Stoeferle
Incrementum AG
Ronald-Peter Stöferle diskutiert in einem Interview mit FOCUS-MONEY die aktuelle und prognostizierte Entwicklung von Gold. Er konstatiert, dass Gold am Anfang eines neuen Bullenmarkts steht. Darüber hinaus wird das Phänomen der voranschreitenden De-Dollarization diskutiert.