2025 Year-End Competition; an Update

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

”The USA is responsible for less than 15% of world trade. What happens to the world trading system now will be decided by the other 85 per cent.”

Professor Richard Baldwin

Elon Musk’s statement, “I think a bill can be big or beautiful. I don’t know if it can be both”, a bill he described as a “disgusting abomination”, and especially his tweet “without me, Trump would have lost the election, Dems would control the House and the Republicans would be 51-49 in the Senate”, makes me wonder if they are still best friends, and if not, what will be the consequences?

Update

Anyway, before all my readers head off on vacation, I thought it would be fitting to provide an update on the Incrementum 2025 Year-End Competition. As I write this edition of “Stefan’s Weekly,” the prices stand as follows: Silver at USD 35.62, the Shanghai Composite at 3,376.20 points, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yields 4.37%.

Silver

No modifications have been made to our “betting landscape” thus far. Hans continues to hold the highest bid at USD 47.80, while Mark, a former fund manager and client, has submitted the lowest bid at USD 35.77. I think this disparity in bid amounts highlights the varying levels of engagement and risk tolerance among participants in this betting scenario.
                   

Shanghai Composite

The same principle applies to the Shanghai Composite Index, where my associate, Hans, submitted the highest bid at 3’980 points, which is marginally higher, approximately five points, than the corresponding bid submitted by Mark. In stark contrast, Niklas’s lowest recorded bid stands at 2’950 points.
 

10-Year U.S. Treasury

In the 10-year U.S. Treasury securities market, Mike has the highest recorded bet at 5.55%, while Hans maintains the lowest at 3.8%. Again, this disparity highlights a significant divergence in the gentlemen’s expectations regarding future interest rates and, thus, economic conditions. To me, this is the most interesting bet.

Closed Competition       

The competition has officially closed, and I appreciate your understanding. As mentioned in my previous update, I intend to add an additional silver coin if Dario emerges victorious once again. Dario seems to be in a league of his own; therefore, if he secures a win, I will send a silver coin to him as well as to the runner-up. This also applies if a partner of Incrementum takes home the prize.
Data will be sourced from https://marktdaten.fuw.ch/.

Fingers Crossed

I keep my fingers crossed for all participants and look forward to sending this one-ounce silver coin to the winner at the end of the year.

Addendum

Overnight, the feud between President Trump and Mr Musk has escalated; on one hand, I am surprised, and on the other, I am not. I have serious doubts that this is for the greater good of the American people.

Ladies and Gentlemen

Feel free to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li.

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 153
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li