Kategorie: Wissenswertes

Video Interview with Demelza Hays

Posted on by Stefan Markus Kremeth

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

My colleague, Demelza Hays, has been interviewed by Chris Marcus from Stockpulse https://www.stockpulse.com/. I think the interview was well conducted and answers some of the questions in regard to blockchain or crypto currencies. Please feel free to enjoy the video below.

If you are interested in Incrementum’s blockchain and crypto research, please feel free to register yourself under:

https://cryptoresearch.report/downloads/

to receive your free copy of our quarterly research report.

Please do not hesitate to share your thoughts with me on the interview with Demelza or on whatever seems interesting to you or is bothering you. Please feel encouraged to do so but please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:

smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

And now, Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a great day and weekend.

Kind regards.

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG

Winter

Posted on by Stefan Markus Kremeth

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

The SMI is down 7.7% so far this year, the Euro Stoxx 50 is down 13.09% so far this year, the Daxx is down 16.31% so far this year, Gold is down 4.79% so far this year, Silver is down 14.33% so far this year, Brent Crude Oil is down 10.91% so far this year and theses are by far not the worst samples. This looks like winter to me.

Ladies and Gentlemen, often I get asked why I would not mention any of the American indices. The reason for this is that we (for some years already) do not invest in American equities for our private clients and the reason we do not invest in American equities for our private clients is risk management or to some extent lack of trust. Investing always involves a risk management component and while we are fully aware of the fact that without taking risk, we cannot expect return, we still try to manage that risk according to our believes. Now, the U.S. has been acting (and not only very recently) with business partners and governments globally in a not always very trust inspiring way that has on one side been very efficient to the American authorities but on the other side been between difficult and maybe even devastating to some of those other nations and/or business partners around the globe and this is why we are of the opinion that our private clients should have the smallest exposure possible to the risk of changes of laws and/or common practices by the American government, tax authorities, Securities and Exchange Commission, etc. By investing in global enterprises incorporated outside of the U.S. our private clients already take an indirect risk of such changes and to us this is already plenty.

Now, if I use the “farming” metaphor of my last week’s weekly mail, please allow me to stretch it just a little more and add the four seasons into it and if I do that, I think we have approached the end of fall and/or the beginning of winter.

As I mentioned many times before, volatility is nothing unusual, just normal market behaviour and an unpleasant part of investment risk any investor has to live with.

Now, winter is also the time to repair your tools, check your crop, prepare the grounds so that you are ready for the planting/seeding season.

If I convert this thought into portfolio management you want to ask yourself if you still have the portfolio you want/need and if not, you want to take action and make some adjustments. There are good investment opportunities out there, the difficult part is to pick them and to pick them at the right time.

Please do not hesitate to share your thoughts with me on the interview or on whatever seems interesting or bothering to you. Please feel encouraged to do so but please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:

smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

And now, Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a great day and weekend.

Kind regards.

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG

Was wir aus der Landwirtschaft lernen können

Posted on by Stefan Markus Kremeth

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

Many thanks for your feedback to my last weekly mail. Some of my readers came up with great thoughts and I will most probably use one or the other in future weeklies. I would like to thank especially Madeleine, Thomas, Robert, Scott and Anton for their inspiring reflections. Many thanks!

As some of you know, I live on a small hill in the country side of Zürich and when I look out of the window, I see cows and horses and only a few houses. Seeing farmers at work is part of every day life up here and talking to them from time to time made me think about investment processes.

Nowadays, most of us living in developed countries are used to instant gratification. People are posting pictures of their food and hope to receive likes, they are posting pictures of their cars and hope to receive likes, they are posting comments on Twitter and hope to receive likes. Instant gratification. You want a coffee, you get it immediately, you want something to eat, you get it right away, a new I-phone you get it, whatever we want we can get most of it at any moment. Instant gratification.

However, when it comes to investing, instant gratification is not all that easy to achieve.

Investing needs a strategy and it needs time, patience.

I think investing is actually a lot like farming. Before investing my clients’ money, I have to prepare the grounds. Ground preparing in my business is for example research and research is very time consuming and at times even boring and it is ongoing, it never stops but it needs to be done.

After preparing the grounds I sow the seeds, which means I make some first investments.  Afterwards I nourish and cater for the investments, I add positions or let go of some. When I think the time is right, I harvest, I take profits, rake in dividends or write calls (covered only) on long positions to increase to cashflow on the portfolio.

I am fully aware that a storm can take away a part of my clients‘ harvest, this is why I am only on very, very rare occasions fully invested. Like this I always have some cash at hand to increase positions when markets are down.

That is what I am doing, not more and not less, and I keep on doing this over and over and over and over again.

And you know, Ladies and Gentlemen, I don’t think much of preparing and building up protection for this one and only very bad mega storm, almost hoping for it to arrive so that my protection works and (not to forget) my ego gets pampered. I think the opportunity cost of such a (rather risky) strategy is very high. Partial protection on the other side makes a lot of sense to me and I would highly recommend that in any sort of balanced portfolio.

Please do not hesitate to share your thoughts with me on whatever seems interesting  to you or on whatever is bothering you. Please feel encouraged to do so but please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:

smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

And now, Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a great day and weekend.
Kind regards.

Yours truly,

 

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG

Moralisierender und polarisierender Nachrichtenfluss

Posted on by Stefan Markus Kremeth

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

This is a slightly more intense weekly than usual and I recommend you only read it if you really are up for it and can spare a moment to think about it.

You know, Ladies and Gentlemen, I ask myself if I am the only one or if there are others out there, who like me seem to have detected an unhealthy development of black or white thinking and/or black or white reporting on just about any important and even unimportant topic in politics and/or financial markets and many other things.

I do get the impression we are constantly being pulled or pushed into one or the other camp, black or white, by influencers of any sort moralizing and polarizing with at times very week arguments.

I really can’t think much of this and it bothers me big time. I don’t think moralizing and polarizing; black or white thinking is helping the knowledge building process of voters and financial investors in any positive way. Why can’t we accept different shades of grey or even colours and have a debate on viewpoints without having to fiercely defend the moralizing and polarizing viewpoints of pseudo gurus?

Is it really impossible to see something (anything really) good in a political candidate, who’s face, style, political program you dislike? Is it really impossible to see something (anything really) good in an asset class you generally dislike? Isn’t it the mix that proposes the best results?

Look, Ladies and Gentlemen, in a very simplified illustration what would you think if a cook was only offering dishes with one ingredient? Don’t you think this would be slightly boring over time and that he would maybe soon be out of business? While and thanks to a mix of ingredients he may were to achieve balanced and interesting menus?

Same is obviously true for politics. I personally think President Donald Trump is not a very elegant person, however I cannot imagine that everything he does is bad. The new Italian government does not want to stick to agreements signed with the EU by their predecessors long time ago, true and yet, there are arguments I understand even if I don’t like them.

Now, when it comes to financial markets, the sometimes-fierce fight between defenders of one or the other asset class is truly surprising as it leads to more restrictions instead of more freedom and flexibility. Why would someone be happy to give up freedom or flexibility?

You know, Ladies and Gentlemen, this phenomenon you can also find in religion and while we finally seem to understand that religion was man made, we almost seem to seek restrictions outside religion. Again, this is very surprising to me as it makes our thinking and acting more rigid and thus fragile instead of flexible and antifragile.

What is your opinion, Ladies and Gentlemen?

Please do not hesitate to share your thoughts with me on whatever seems interesting or bothering to you. Please feel encouraged to do so but please don’t forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:

smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

And now, Ladies and Gentlemen I wish you a great day and weekend.

Kind regards.

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG

Der Edelmetall-Analyst Ronald Peter Stöferle im Gespräch mit pro aurum TV

Posted on by Ronald Stöferle

Die Internationale Edelmetall & Rohstoffmesse ist jedes Jahr das zentrale Ereignis für erfahrene Edelmetall-Anleger sowie solche, die es werden wollen. In diesem Jahr fand die Leitmesse der Branche vom 9. bis 10. November 2018 im MVG Museum München statt – mit dabei war auch „pro aurum TV“. Vor der Kamera standen zahlreiche Experten, darunter „Mister DAX“ Dirk Müller, Ronald Peter Stöferle (Co-Autor des „In Gold We Trust“-Reports) sowie Robert Hartmann und Mirko Schmidt (Gründer von pro aurum) Rede und Antwort. Im Gespräch mit pro aurum TV zeigte sich der Edelmetall-Analyst Ronald Peter Stöferle äußerst zuversichtlich für die weitere Entwicklung von Gold