Kategorie: Stefan’s Weekly

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

„Government spending is taxation. When you look at this, I’ve never heard of a poor person spending himself into prosperity, let alone of a poor person taxing himself into prosperity.“

by Arthur Laffer, Professor of Business Economics and member of President Reagan’s Economic Policy Advisory Board

Zero gravity

According to an excerpt from Wikipedia, weightlessness is the complete or almost complete absence of the sensation of weight, i.e. the absence of apparent weight. It is also referred to as zero-g force or zero-g (named after the g-force) or sometimes incorrectly as weightlessness. Gravity also exists in space. It prevents satellites from flying straight out into the interstellar void. What is missing is the „weight“, the resistance to the force of attraction by an anchored structure or a counterforce.

The Swiss National Bank

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is reversing its monetary policy and lowering interest rates as the first one among the large global national banks. The central bank announced on Thursday that their key interest rate will be lowered by 0.25% to 1.5%.

The Swiss National Bank II

„The easing of monetary policy was made possible because the fight against inflation has been effective over the past two and a half years,“ the central bank explained. Inflation has been below 2% for several months, and within the range, the SNB equates with price stability.

SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan

SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan’s comment to the media yesterday included: „With our decision, we are taking account of the lower inflationary pressure and the real appreciation of the Swiss franc over the past year. The interest rate cut also supports economic development. Today’s easing, therefore, ensures that monetary conditions remain appropriate.“

Well, well, well

Yes, Ladies and Gentlemen, as mentioned in the previous “Stefan’s Weeklies”, I would not be surprised to see the ECB and Fed lower their base rates in June. One interesting statement by the SNB claimed that inflation will likely remain in “this range” (i.e. below 2%) for the next few years.

But why?

But why is the Swiss Franc so incredibly strong compared to other currencies? The answer can probably be found in the Swiss government’s discipline regarding household policies. A balanced annual financial statement is still regarded as a politically accepted normality, even if leftist politicians tend to favour ever more social benefits, regardless if this means more debt.

Ratio

The evolution of the Swiss Franc monetary aggregates M1, M2 and M3 (Monetary policy | Federal Statistical Office (admin.ch)) is in percentage, more or less in line with the evolution of the percentage increase (production) of the amount of global gold (Global gold production from mines 2023 | Statista). Interesting, no?

A blessing and a curse / the feeling of zero gravity

A strong Swiss Franc helped Switzerland to keep inflation down massively compared to other G20 nations, which was a blessing for the general public. However, most Swiss companies export, and thus, the strong Swiss franc made their exports challenging and more expensive for customers from non-Swiss franc currency zones. For some of the exporters, therefore, the strong Swiss Franc certainly seemed to be a curse. Nevertheless, in a tense global economic environment, Switzerland has been able to maintain its economic stability in recent years thanks to decades of government budgetary discipline, and the strong Swiss Franc made the majority of the Swiss population feel like it is in “zero gravity”, while in other currency areas all around Switzerland and Liechtenstein, purchasing power plunged.

Good Friday

There will be no „Stefan’s Weekly“ next week due to Good Friday Holiday. Thanks for your understanding.

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

„The belief that security can be obtained by throwing a small State to the wolves is a fatal delusion.“
by Sir Winston Leonard Spencer-Churchill

Awards

I am very proud of my colleagues, Ladies and Gentlemen. It seems we are winning awards without end. Not only have the Incrementum All Seasons Fund and the Uranium Resources Fund won a Lipper Award each, but the Uranium Resources Fund has also taken first place at the Mountain View Fund Awards 2024 in the „Megatrend Natural Resources“ category. The two funds are managed by my partners, Dr Christian Schärer and Hans Schiefen, who also act as each other’s deputies in the respective funds. If you ask me, that is a sign of remarkable consistency. Morningstar awarded a maximum of five stars for both of these funds, and then we have just learned that Incrementum AG has been ranked 10th out of over 500 asset managers by the German magazine „Wirtschaftswoche“ (WiWo). This makes me happy, Ladies and Gentlemen!

Sir Winston Leonard Spencer-Churchill

I received a few positive comments on last week’s quote by Winston Churchill, which is why I allowed myself to include another in this week’s “Stefan’s Weekly”. It is interesting because it can serve as food for thought in today’s political landscape, as it did in 1938.

Your bests so far

I sense a certain bullishness among my readers. Your bets are going through the roof. In recent years, most of my readers have been bullish on gold, silver, and Bitcoin but not so much on the S&P. This year, almost all of you are bullish on the S&P, and even for Nvidia, the quotes are roughly fifty-fifty. One very low bet forecasts a crash in the stock, if not in the sector, but there are also bullish bets around USD 1’000 and above.

S&P

So far, the highest bet on the S&P stands at 5’651 and the lowest at 4’000. Yesterday, the S&P traded at USD 5’150.

Gold

So far, the highest bet on gold stands at 2’500 and the lowest at 2’050. Yesterday, gold traded at  USD 2’163.

Nvidia

So far, the highest bet on Nvidia is 1’250, and the lowest is 195. Yesterday, Nvidia traded at USD 773.

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

„I had great anxiety and no means of relieving it.“

by Sir Winston Leonard Spencer-Churchill

Descriptive perception

Descriptive perception is thought to mean understanding how the individual, society, or world actually is.

European Central Bank (ECB) I

Despite a faster decline in inflation, the European Central Bank is waiting to cut interest rates for the first time since summer 2022. Yesterday, the ECB Governing Council left the key interest rates in the 20-country currency area unchanged for the fourth time in a row. The most important interest rate for supplying the banking industry with fresh central bank money remains at 4.5%. The deposit rate, which banks receive for parked money, remains at 4.0%.

Normative perception

Normative perception is thought to mean understanding how an individual, society, and the world should be.

European Central Bank (ECB) II

Central Bank president Christine Lagarde indicated yesterday in Frankfurt after the ECB Governing Council meeting that a change of course could occur at the June 6 meeting. She clarified: „We did not discuss a rate cut in this meeting. We have just started discussing the withdrawal of our restrictive stance.“

Reason

The recent development of the inflation rate makes the euro currency guardians more confident but „not sufficiently confident,“ explained Lagarde. We clearly need more evidence and more data. We will know a little more in April, and we will know a lot more in June.“

Federal Reserve

According to Neel Kashkari, head of the Minneapolis Fed, the US Federal Reserve is only likely to lower interest rates max. twice this year due to stronger economic data since the beginning of the year

Same same

It looks like both central banks are going to lower their key interest rates in summer at the earliest, and it seems this is going to be somewhat orchestrated between them.

Impact

The impact will probably be that risk assets like equities, gold, and cryptos continue to perform well as the interest rate fantasy remains alive. We will see soon enough, in three months from now we are going to be in summer. Time flies, Ladies and Gentlemen.

Year-End competition

Next week, I will give an update on the state of this year’s year-end competition. We will look at the guessed price ranges in the different asset classes and share some information about the Incrementum partners‘ guesses. If you have not participated so far and still want to, please feel free to send in your bets.

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

„You can’t always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you might find you get what you need.“

by Sir Michael Philip „Mick“ Jagger

Best Guesses

You know, Ladies and Gentlemen, traditionally, during Q1, when I am involved in the yearly „year-end competition“, I always wonder what guesses my readers come up with. I find it particularly interesting to see how the ones who participate see markets evolve over the coming months. While I am fully aware that all statements that anyone participating can ever make are best guesses based on currently available data, it is still intriguing to see how close some of you get towards the end of the year when we call the winner. I am always wondering why the participants come up with the guesses they come up with. I, for example, always use the same methodology.

No science

Predicting the price of anything is no science to me; it is guessing. Now, having said (written) that, is it not the case that even science itself is best guesses based on currently available data? Since new data is constantly being brought to light, i.e. reality is continually changing, the conclusion must be that science is a dynamic process. Thus, findings and results may change according to newly available data.

Interpretation

Most of us are looking more or less at the same data, yet the interpretation of that data may vary hugely. We are steeped in our experience, leading to different conclusions. This is so fascinating, and because of how it is, we have to be particularly careful when adopting the ideas and findings of others because they function the same way and are also guessing on currently available data (hopefully solid data).

Signs of positive macroeconomic data

The relevant purchasing managers‘ indices for the USA, the N.Y. Empire State Index and the Philadelphia Fed Index, recovered in February. Both indicators relate to the manufacturing sector. The eurozone is also showing signs of bottoming out. The service sector was able to reach the 50-point mark. The manufacturing sector reached its lowest point in the fall of 2023.

What does this mean for interest rates?

Yes, Ladies and Gentlemen, this is a valid question because futures traders on U.S. fixed interest rate products are now expecting the first key interest rate cut for June 2024. Some weeks/months ago, it was still March 2024, i.e., there was a shift in currently available data, which led to a change in consensus among market participants from a more recessionary trend in economic performance to a lessening one.

Economic growth and interest rate decrease?

Again, it is a valid question if you ask me. I currently believe market participants are almost a little complacent. The forecasted economic growth and hope for interest cuts simultaneously do not go well together. On the contrary, increasing economic growth may spark further persistent inflation. I am cautious about a rapid interest rate cut and prefer to be surprised positively rather than negatively. We will see!

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

G

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

„Art is making something out of nothing and selling it.“

by Frank Zappa

First-timers

For those who have joined our readers recently, every year, I organise a year-end competition in guess, for example, the price of gold, silver, crude oil, the SMI, a cryptocurrency or the S&P 500 Index.

Predictions

Regularly, I receive emails from readers asking me where I think the price of gold would be at the end of the year, the SMI, interest rates, or the price of silver. Those who follow my weekly emails frequently will know that I would not say I like making predictions.

Invitation

However, occasionally, I am happy to tell you what I think may happen just for fun, and since we are at the end of February already, it is time for our traditional year-end competition. As I did in the past, I invite you to compete with all the other readers, my partners Christian, Mark, Hans, Ronni and myself, and as always, the winner will receive one ounce of silver in the form of a silver coin. Suppose the winner stems from within Incrementum or my family, I am also happy to send a one-ounce silver coin to the official winner, i.e., ex Incrementum and/or my family. As your bets will be coming in, I will publish ours.

Former Winners       

The list of former winners includes an old friend from university, two clients, a former fund manager and value specialist from London and some regular readers. So far, none of my family members were close enough to be called a winner. However, my partner Ronni won the competition last year, right before Dario, the official winner (who received an extraordinary silver coin), followed by my partner Mark and me. Three out of five Incrementum partners among the first four. This was quite something and exceptional.

Obviously

Obviously, Ladies and Gentlemen, it is impossible to guess the future, yet I look forward to receiving your bets! Please do not forget that it is all about fun!

Gold, Silver, NVIDIA           

Now, Ladies and Gentlemen, I suppose we try to guess the year-end price for one ounce of Gold in USD, the S&P 500 and the NVIDIA share price. The closest one wins the silver coin. The year-end prices will be taken from this page: https://marktdaten.fuw.ch/.

Ladies and Gentlemen, what do you think? What are your best guesses? As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li.

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

„It is frightful that people who are so ignorant should have so much influence.“
by George Orwell

Last week

Many thanks for all the messages and comments I received for last week’s «Stefan’s Weekly». I want to share some excerpts from my email conversations with Shauna and with John, a former winner of the year-end competition.

«Countries have interests, not friends. Eventually, Germany’s high energy costs can cause a shift in the political landscape. It is the Wild West in terms of countries interacting with one another. Rules are thrown aside or rewritten if they benefit the more powerful entity. The concept of rules or freedom is irrelevant at a high political level. It is who is more powerful.» 

Wow, what a comment; I agree, and it reminds me of a quote by Henry Kissinger.

«Is it power? Is it greed? Is it insanity to kill fellow humans and sleep well after those decisions?»

I do not know and am as puzzled.

«People will give up their freedom for security when times get tough (citizens are more open to authoritarianism). However, yearn for more freedom when times are more prosperous (less regulation).»

Yes, at least to me, understandable everyday human behaviour.

«Another point is accountability. Some people do not make good decisions. What happens when their choices lead to poor outcomes? Is there a push for a rule that allows for a bailout?» 

Accountability

The general population pays the price for the risks politicians and authorities take. Yes, Ladies and Gentlemen, citizens pay the price for all the risks and incompetent decisions made by politicians and authorities. Under normal circumstances, politicians and authorities are not held accountable for their mistakes. In some instances and only in reasonably functioning democracies, politicians risk not being reelected. That is it.

Serve the people

The primary goal of politicians and authorities should be to serve their people. I am not sure if this is fully understood by politicians and authorities, and quite frankly, I am not sure if voters fully understand this either.

Germany, IFO Institute in January

On January 17, the IFO Institute estimated that Germany’s GDP would fall by 0.3 % in 2023. Due to persistently high inflation and falling purchasing power, it anticipated a mild economic recession. However, according to the Economic Institute, GDP is expected to grow slightly again in 2024.

Germany, ZEW Centre in February

This week, ZEW (LEIBNIZ CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN ECONOMIC RESEARCH) President Professor Achim Wambach commented on the latest survey results: «The German economy is in a bad place. The respondents‘ assessment of the current economic situation has decreased since June 2020. In contrast, economic expectations for Germany have improved again. Accordingly, more than two-thirds of the respondents expect the ECB to make interest rate cuts over the next six months in light of falling inflation rates. Almost three-quarters of respondents expect imminent interest rate cuts by the American central bank.»

Interest rates expectations

Once more, it seems to all come down to interest rate expectations. Better economic outlook thanks to falling interest rates. If most market participants expect lower interest rates, the effect will be priced in by market participants well before the final announcement, which bears a certain risk of disappointment, no?

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

„Regularities are characterised by the fact that they are stable over time; otherwise, they would not be regularities.“

by Dr. Philipp Sterzer

John Locke

John Locke, the great pioneer of liberalism, described freedom as freedom from the coercion and violence of others. However, freedom does not mean that everyone can do whatever they want. Who can be free if the whims of others can tyrannise them?

Freedom in the market

The market is traditionally hailed as the exemplar of a system under which people enjoy freedom, particularly the negative sort of freedom associated with liberal and libertarian thought: freedom as noninterference. The appeal of the market from within that viewpoint is that it represents a regime of unobstructed consumer choice and, as a bonus, a regime in which consumer options may be expected to increase and diversify under the pressure of competition. (By Philip Pettit, Princeton University).

Carl 1 and free speech?

Carl 1 sits in his favourite, cheap and busy Restaurant in the centre of Moscow and debates over his dinner and lots of alcohol with friends and other guests about the war in Ukraine, sanctions by the West, and their constraints on the everyday life of middle-class Russians. He is critical of Russian policy and the war and would like to see peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Carl 1 walks home to his wife and wants to tell her about his political discourse. He never reaches home and risks being locked away indefinitely. Carl 1 is not to be seen anymore. Is Carl 1 free, and is he a hero?

Sanctions

So far, it seems, the sanctions on Russia have led to a particular shift in prosperity. While Europe, above all Germany, has been hit by higher energy prices due to the sanctions, India does not comply with them and imports the sanctioned fossil fuels from Russia at discount prices, refines and then exports them worldwide on an unprecedented scale and with high margins. The U.S., at the same time, is fracking as if there was no tomorrow, taking advantage of higher prices on non-sanctioned fossil fuels and exports to Europe, above all to Germany. Germany complies with the sanctions and does not buy cheap gas from Russia anymore but expensive gas from the U.S. and other nations. I imagine the effect of the sanctions must be challenging for the average Russian, and I imagine the effect of the same sanctions must also be challenging for the average German. Are the sanctions hitting the right institutions or people? Is Germany a free country deciding what is best for its citizens?

Carl 2 and free speech!

Carl 2 sits in his favourite and very busy Restaurant in the centre of Berlin and debates over his dinner and lots of alcohol with friends and other guests about the political system in Germany and the incompetence of the country’s political leadership. Representatives of the authorities and members of the Bundestag sit at the surrounding tables. Carl 2 goes home to his wife, has another sip, proudly tells her about his political debates and feels like a hero. The day after, Carl 2 visits his family in Frankfurt. Together, they go for dinner in a bustling Restaurant in the centre of town and debate over food and lots of alcohol with family, friends, and other guests about the political system in Germany and the incompetence of the country’s political leadership. Carl 2 again goes home to his wife, has another sip, proudly tells her again about his political debates and feels like a hero. Nothing happens to Carl 2. Is Carl 2 free, and is he a hero?

Tricky

The tricky thing about these questions is the realisation that there is no freedom without rules, but rules (may) limit freedom and, to some extent, prosperity. Freedom for all also means preventing a group of people from creating a situation through their behaviour – for example, by invading another country – that massively impairs the freedom of all. I firmly believe the principle «where there is no law, there is no freedom» still applies. However, rules (may) limit freedom and, as I have pointed out in the above example, to some extent, prosperity.

Prosperity and Freedom

Sanctions create new opportunities. In this case, for U.S. fracking companies and fossil fuel refiners in India. Yet, as in the above case, they are also a burden for average German and Russian citizens. History shows that free markets lead to prosperity, and prosperity leads to security and peace. And sanctions, what do sanctions lead to?

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

„The battle between ‚capitalism‘ and ‚communism‘ is back.“

by Mr. Thomas Straubhaar,
Professor of International Economic Relations at the University of Hamburg

Last week’s policy meeting vs this week’s inflation numbers

Last week, we were looking at the ECB policy meeting. There has been no change after their first monetary policy meeting this year. They left the key interest rate at 4.5% and the deposit rate at 4%. Yesterday’s Eurozone consumer prices came in at  2.8% higher than in January 2023; however, they were below the 2.9% of December 2023. The price trend is slowly approaching the ECB’s medium-term target of 2%.

This week’s Fed policy meeting

On Wednesday, the U.S. monetary authorities decided to maintain their key interest rate range of 5.25% to 5.5%. At the same time, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that the central bank needed more confidence in the downward trend in inflation, even though this had already been underway for the last six months. „Clear signals“ were needed that the downward trend towards the Fed’s inflation target of 2% was sustainable.

Same same

So, therefore, both central banks communicated in line and, as far as I am concerned, in line with my expectations.

Change in outlook?

My personal outlook was thus confirmed. There was too much hot air in the markets in the second half of Q4 2023 because of overconfidence concerning interest rate cuts. Now, I still believe in a renewed interest rate cut fantasy after a short period of consolidation in Q1 2024. Furthermore, in January 2024, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index rose by 1.2 %. Since 1987, 80% of the years in which the Dow was up in January ended with a gain. In addition and, also according to stats, the performance of a president like Joe Biden, who is in his first presidential cycle, initially tends to move sideways in his fourth year in office before gaining ground, leading to a solid yearly performance. But then again, Ladies and Gentlemen, that is only prognostic based on stats.

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

„I object to intellect without discipline.“

by Mr. Spock

Thank you

Thank you for your positive feedback on my last «Stefan’s Weekly». I was happy to read that many of my readers were also into Star Trek and Mr. Spock in their youth. Mr. Spock was one of my heroes when I was a boy. Because of your positive feedback and because he was my hero, I wanted to share another quote by him with you today.

Your feedback on conviction-building

I want to share an excerpt from a brief e-mail conversation with John, a long-time reader and former year-end competition winner. He wrote: «Dealing with randomness is unsettling. Notice how financial outlets always comment on why the markets move daily.“ My reply: «Absolutely, it is big business to put investors through emotions!» Furthermore, «Thinking about Mr Spock’s quote…people seem very forgiving of being misinformed or lied to if they are told what they want to hear…reinforcing their conviction.» My reply: «This drives me crazy; why are people forgetting so quickly?»

ECB policy meeting; my personal conclusion

At their first monetary policy meeting in 2024, ECB President Christine Lagarde and her «guardians of the euro» decided yesterday on their first monetary policy meeting this year to leave the key interest rate at 4.5% and the deposit rate at the record level of 4 %. In their statement, they did not indicate when the first interest rate cut may be expected; however, they claimed that the future decisions of the ECB Governing Council will ensure that key interest rates remain at a sufficiently restrictive level for as long as necessary.

What does this mean?

You may ask what this means for investors. It means there will not be any immediate interest cut in the euro currency area, not like widely expected in the second half of Q4 2023. However, this also means that the carrot will continue to be held in front of our noses, and we can expect a rate cut just later than market participants originally expected. It also means that the ECB management does not want to let anyone look at its cards and keeps all options open.

Okay, but is this now good or bad for equities, precious metals, bonds, etc?

I imagine markets will stay somewhat lacklustre for a few more days or maybe even weeks but may move up afterwards. I would not be surprised to see investors return to the «rate cut» narrative, leading to a positive bias as a consequence.

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

„In critical moments, men sometimes see exactly what they wish to see.“

by Mr. Spock

Negative bias

From the Emails I receive, I sense a particular negative bias among some of my readers. This is interesting, and I sometimes ask myself how the thoughts of these readers are shaped. Let us have a look at some basic theory on conviction building.

Conviction building

How do we humans arrive at our convictions? According to research, Ladies and Gentlemen, there are at least two very prominent ways. On the one hand, we arrive at our convictions based on evidence that is either made available to us or that we collect ourselves, while on the other hand, we may arrive at our convictions by adopting the beliefs of others with more or less evidence verification.

We just love patterns

At Incrementum AG, we constantly produce charts; some readers can not get enough of them. This is great for us, and we see it as a big compliment for our work. It is also fascinating because our brain constantly searches for patterns that have meaning for us or from which we can derive (potential) predictions. In doing so, we often overshoot the mark by recognising patterns where there are none. This cognitive distortion is called the clustering illusion (The clustering illusion describes the human characteristic of attributing meanings to random patterns that inevitably occur in sufficiently large amounts of data). Now, when we (humans) discover patterns, we also want to discover their cause because most of us strongly need causal explanations, which I believe is not all that bad. However, we tend to weigh „evidence“ asymmetrically. In other words, we give more weight to facts that correspond to our convictions than to facts that speak against them.

The issue

It becomes problematic when convictions mutate into dogmas and can no longer be corrected, no matter how much evidence is available. Yes, Ladies and Gentlemen, questioning our thoughts, ideas, and beliefs is not really our strength.

Solution for your investment approach

If you apply the above to your investment strategy, you may conclude that you need to make one or two adjustments. In any case, I recommend that you not overestimate the patterns but question them and that you not just follow the opinions of gurus but form your own opinion and be aware of the asymmetric weighting of your conclusions. For me, the best way to fight that behavioural pattern is to try to prove the opposite of my current opinion, and my current opinion probably has some value if I am still convinced by it at the end of such a process. To me, this is almost the only way to get a more complete picture of almost any situation. Think about the quote by Mr. Spock.

The glass is half-full

Besides all the horrible things humans can do and the tremendous suffering and ghastly political decisions made by some incapable political leaders, I see changes and opportunities. To me, the glass is half-full.

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li