Kategorie: Stefan’s Weekly

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Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

„Art is making something out of nothing and selling it.“

by Frank Zappa

First-timers

For those who have joined our readers recently, every year, I organise a year-end competition in guess, for example, the price of gold, silver, crude oil, the SMI, a cryptocurrency or the S&P 500 Index.

Predictions

Regularly, I receive emails from readers asking me where I think the price of gold would be at the end of the year, the SMI, interest rates, or the price of silver. Those who follow my weekly emails frequently will know that I would not say I like making predictions.

Invitation

However, occasionally, I am happy to tell you what I think may happen just for fun, and since we are at the end of February already, it is time for our traditional year-end competition. As I did in the past, I invite you to compete with all the other readers, my partners Christian, Mark, Hans, Ronni and myself, and as always, the winner will receive one ounce of silver in the form of a silver coin. Suppose the winner stems from within Incrementum or my family, I am also happy to send a one-ounce silver coin to the official winner, i.e., ex Incrementum and/or my family. As your bets will be coming in, I will publish ours.

Former Winners       

The list of former winners includes an old friend from university, two clients, a former fund manager and value specialist from London and some regular readers. So far, none of my family members were close enough to be called a winner. However, my partner Ronni won the competition last year, right before Dario, the official winner (who received an extraordinary silver coin), followed by my partner Mark and me. Three out of five Incrementum partners among the first four. This was quite something and exceptional.

Obviously

Obviously, Ladies and Gentlemen, it is impossible to guess the future, yet I look forward to receiving your bets! Please do not forget that it is all about fun!

Gold, Silver, NVIDIA           

Now, Ladies and Gentlemen, I suppose we try to guess the year-end price for one ounce of Gold in USD, the S&P 500 and the NVIDIA share price. The closest one wins the silver coin. The year-end prices will be taken from this page: https://marktdaten.fuw.ch/.

Ladies and Gentlemen, what do you think? What are your best guesses? As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li.

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

„It is frightful that people who are so ignorant should have so much influence.“
by George Orwell

Last week

Many thanks for all the messages and comments I received for last week’s «Stefan’s Weekly». I want to share some excerpts from my email conversations with Shauna and with John, a former winner of the year-end competition.

«Countries have interests, not friends. Eventually, Germany’s high energy costs can cause a shift in the political landscape. It is the Wild West in terms of countries interacting with one another. Rules are thrown aside or rewritten if they benefit the more powerful entity. The concept of rules or freedom is irrelevant at a high political level. It is who is more powerful.» 

Wow, what a comment; I agree, and it reminds me of a quote by Henry Kissinger.

«Is it power? Is it greed? Is it insanity to kill fellow humans and sleep well after those decisions?»

I do not know and am as puzzled.

«People will give up their freedom for security when times get tough (citizens are more open to authoritarianism). However, yearn for more freedom when times are more prosperous (less regulation).»

Yes, at least to me, understandable everyday human behaviour.

«Another point is accountability. Some people do not make good decisions. What happens when their choices lead to poor outcomes? Is there a push for a rule that allows for a bailout?» 

Accountability

The general population pays the price for the risks politicians and authorities take. Yes, Ladies and Gentlemen, citizens pay the price for all the risks and incompetent decisions made by politicians and authorities. Under normal circumstances, politicians and authorities are not held accountable for their mistakes. In some instances and only in reasonably functioning democracies, politicians risk not being reelected. That is it.

Serve the people

The primary goal of politicians and authorities should be to serve their people. I am not sure if this is fully understood by politicians and authorities, and quite frankly, I am not sure if voters fully understand this either.

Germany, IFO Institute in January

On January 17, the IFO Institute estimated that Germany’s GDP would fall by 0.3 % in 2023. Due to persistently high inflation and falling purchasing power, it anticipated a mild economic recession. However, according to the Economic Institute, GDP is expected to grow slightly again in 2024.

Germany, ZEW Centre in February

This week, ZEW (LEIBNIZ CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN ECONOMIC RESEARCH) President Professor Achim Wambach commented on the latest survey results: «The German economy is in a bad place. The respondents‘ assessment of the current economic situation has decreased since June 2020. In contrast, economic expectations for Germany have improved again. Accordingly, more than two-thirds of the respondents expect the ECB to make interest rate cuts over the next six months in light of falling inflation rates. Almost three-quarters of respondents expect imminent interest rate cuts by the American central bank.»

Interest rates expectations

Once more, it seems to all come down to interest rate expectations. Better economic outlook thanks to falling interest rates. If most market participants expect lower interest rates, the effect will be priced in by market participants well before the final announcement, which bears a certain risk of disappointment, no?

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

„Regularities are characterised by the fact that they are stable over time; otherwise, they would not be regularities.“

by Dr. Philipp Sterzer

John Locke

John Locke, the great pioneer of liberalism, described freedom as freedom from the coercion and violence of others. However, freedom does not mean that everyone can do whatever they want. Who can be free if the whims of others can tyrannise them?

Freedom in the market

The market is traditionally hailed as the exemplar of a system under which people enjoy freedom, particularly the negative sort of freedom associated with liberal and libertarian thought: freedom as noninterference. The appeal of the market from within that viewpoint is that it represents a regime of unobstructed consumer choice and, as a bonus, a regime in which consumer options may be expected to increase and diversify under the pressure of competition. (By Philip Pettit, Princeton University).

Carl 1 and free speech?

Carl 1 sits in his favourite, cheap and busy Restaurant in the centre of Moscow and debates over his dinner and lots of alcohol with friends and other guests about the war in Ukraine, sanctions by the West, and their constraints on the everyday life of middle-class Russians. He is critical of Russian policy and the war and would like to see peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Carl 1 walks home to his wife and wants to tell her about his political discourse. He never reaches home and risks being locked away indefinitely. Carl 1 is not to be seen anymore. Is Carl 1 free, and is he a hero?

Sanctions

So far, it seems, the sanctions on Russia have led to a particular shift in prosperity. While Europe, above all Germany, has been hit by higher energy prices due to the sanctions, India does not comply with them and imports the sanctioned fossil fuels from Russia at discount prices, refines and then exports them worldwide on an unprecedented scale and with high margins. The U.S., at the same time, is fracking as if there was no tomorrow, taking advantage of higher prices on non-sanctioned fossil fuels and exports to Europe, above all to Germany. Germany complies with the sanctions and does not buy cheap gas from Russia anymore but expensive gas from the U.S. and other nations. I imagine the effect of the sanctions must be challenging for the average Russian, and I imagine the effect of the same sanctions must also be challenging for the average German. Are the sanctions hitting the right institutions or people? Is Germany a free country deciding what is best for its citizens?

Carl 2 and free speech!

Carl 2 sits in his favourite and very busy Restaurant in the centre of Berlin and debates over his dinner and lots of alcohol with friends and other guests about the political system in Germany and the incompetence of the country’s political leadership. Representatives of the authorities and members of the Bundestag sit at the surrounding tables. Carl 2 goes home to his wife, has another sip, proudly tells her about his political debates and feels like a hero. The day after, Carl 2 visits his family in Frankfurt. Together, they go for dinner in a bustling Restaurant in the centre of town and debate over food and lots of alcohol with family, friends, and other guests about the political system in Germany and the incompetence of the country’s political leadership. Carl 2 again goes home to his wife, has another sip, proudly tells her again about his political debates and feels like a hero. Nothing happens to Carl 2. Is Carl 2 free, and is he a hero?

Tricky

The tricky thing about these questions is the realisation that there is no freedom without rules, but rules (may) limit freedom and, to some extent, prosperity. Freedom for all also means preventing a group of people from creating a situation through their behaviour – for example, by invading another country – that massively impairs the freedom of all. I firmly believe the principle «where there is no law, there is no freedom» still applies. However, rules (may) limit freedom and, as I have pointed out in the above example, to some extent, prosperity.

Prosperity and Freedom

Sanctions create new opportunities. In this case, for U.S. fracking companies and fossil fuel refiners in India. Yet, as in the above case, they are also a burden for average German and Russian citizens. History shows that free markets lead to prosperity, and prosperity leads to security and peace. And sanctions, what do sanctions lead to?

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

„The battle between ‚capitalism‘ and ‚communism‘ is back.“

by Mr. Thomas Straubhaar,
Professor of International Economic Relations at the University of Hamburg

Last week’s policy meeting vs this week’s inflation numbers

Last week, we were looking at the ECB policy meeting. There has been no change after their first monetary policy meeting this year. They left the key interest rate at 4.5% and the deposit rate at 4%. Yesterday’s Eurozone consumer prices came in at  2.8% higher than in January 2023; however, they were below the 2.9% of December 2023. The price trend is slowly approaching the ECB’s medium-term target of 2%.

This week’s Fed policy meeting

On Wednesday, the U.S. monetary authorities decided to maintain their key interest rate range of 5.25% to 5.5%. At the same time, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that the central bank needed more confidence in the downward trend in inflation, even though this had already been underway for the last six months. „Clear signals“ were needed that the downward trend towards the Fed’s inflation target of 2% was sustainable.

Same same

So, therefore, both central banks communicated in line and, as far as I am concerned, in line with my expectations.

Change in outlook?

My personal outlook was thus confirmed. There was too much hot air in the markets in the second half of Q4 2023 because of overconfidence concerning interest rate cuts. Now, I still believe in a renewed interest rate cut fantasy after a short period of consolidation in Q1 2024. Furthermore, in January 2024, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index rose by 1.2 %. Since 1987, 80% of the years in which the Dow was up in January ended with a gain. In addition and, also according to stats, the performance of a president like Joe Biden, who is in his first presidential cycle, initially tends to move sideways in his fourth year in office before gaining ground, leading to a solid yearly performance. But then again, Ladies and Gentlemen, that is only prognostic based on stats.

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

„I object to intellect without discipline.“

by Mr. Spock

Thank you

Thank you for your positive feedback on my last «Stefan’s Weekly». I was happy to read that many of my readers were also into Star Trek and Mr. Spock in their youth. Mr. Spock was one of my heroes when I was a boy. Because of your positive feedback and because he was my hero, I wanted to share another quote by him with you today.

Your feedback on conviction-building

I want to share an excerpt from a brief e-mail conversation with John, a long-time reader and former year-end competition winner. He wrote: «Dealing with randomness is unsettling. Notice how financial outlets always comment on why the markets move daily.“ My reply: «Absolutely, it is big business to put investors through emotions!» Furthermore, «Thinking about Mr Spock’s quote…people seem very forgiving of being misinformed or lied to if they are told what they want to hear…reinforcing their conviction.» My reply: «This drives me crazy; why are people forgetting so quickly?»

ECB policy meeting; my personal conclusion

At their first monetary policy meeting in 2024, ECB President Christine Lagarde and her «guardians of the euro» decided yesterday on their first monetary policy meeting this year to leave the key interest rate at 4.5% and the deposit rate at the record level of 4 %. In their statement, they did not indicate when the first interest rate cut may be expected; however, they claimed that the future decisions of the ECB Governing Council will ensure that key interest rates remain at a sufficiently restrictive level for as long as necessary.

What does this mean?

You may ask what this means for investors. It means there will not be any immediate interest cut in the euro currency area, not like widely expected in the second half of Q4 2023. However, this also means that the carrot will continue to be held in front of our noses, and we can expect a rate cut just later than market participants originally expected. It also means that the ECB management does not want to let anyone look at its cards and keeps all options open.

Okay, but is this now good or bad for equities, precious metals, bonds, etc?

I imagine markets will stay somewhat lacklustre for a few more days or maybe even weeks but may move up afterwards. I would not be surprised to see investors return to the «rate cut» narrative, leading to a positive bias as a consequence.

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

„In critical moments, men sometimes see exactly what they wish to see.“

by Mr. Spock

Negative bias

From the Emails I receive, I sense a particular negative bias among some of my readers. This is interesting, and I sometimes ask myself how the thoughts of these readers are shaped. Let us have a look at some basic theory on conviction building.

Conviction building

How do we humans arrive at our convictions? According to research, Ladies and Gentlemen, there are at least two very prominent ways. On the one hand, we arrive at our convictions based on evidence that is either made available to us or that we collect ourselves, while on the other hand, we may arrive at our convictions by adopting the beliefs of others with more or less evidence verification.

We just love patterns

At Incrementum AG, we constantly produce charts; some readers can not get enough of them. This is great for us, and we see it as a big compliment for our work. It is also fascinating because our brain constantly searches for patterns that have meaning for us or from which we can derive (potential) predictions. In doing so, we often overshoot the mark by recognising patterns where there are none. This cognitive distortion is called the clustering illusion (The clustering illusion describes the human characteristic of attributing meanings to random patterns that inevitably occur in sufficiently large amounts of data). Now, when we (humans) discover patterns, we also want to discover their cause because most of us strongly need causal explanations, which I believe is not all that bad. However, we tend to weigh „evidence“ asymmetrically. In other words, we give more weight to facts that correspond to our convictions than to facts that speak against them.

The issue

It becomes problematic when convictions mutate into dogmas and can no longer be corrected, no matter how much evidence is available. Yes, Ladies and Gentlemen, questioning our thoughts, ideas, and beliefs is not really our strength.

Solution for your investment approach

If you apply the above to your investment strategy, you may conclude that you need to make one or two adjustments. In any case, I recommend that you not overestimate the patterns but question them and that you not just follow the opinions of gurus but form your own opinion and be aware of the asymmetric weighting of your conclusions. For me, the best way to fight that behavioural pattern is to try to prove the opposite of my current opinion, and my current opinion probably has some value if I am still convinced by it at the end of such a process. To me, this is almost the only way to get a more complete picture of almost any situation. Think about the quote by Mr. Spock.

The glass is half-full

Besides all the horrible things humans can do and the tremendous suffering and ghastly political decisions made by some incapable political leaders, I see changes and opportunities. To me, the glass is half-full.

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

„Ceterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam.“

by Cato the Elder, a Roman Politician 150 BC

Emails

I received some emails asking for a market outlook. I usually do not like to predict the future because I do not believe in predicting, unless one can win a silver coin. Nevertheless, I am happy to share my view of what happened in 2023 and the potential consequences for 2024. Investing during the first quarter was essential when looking at our private clients‘ portfolios. The ones that missed the first quarter did not perform. Unfortunately, the performance is not evenly distributed. This is also why I am advocating, as a general rule, investing and staying invested. Trying to time the market is utterly difficult.

Interest rates drive the market

Under normal circumstances, one would assume interest rates to drive the markets. However, at least in the short term, perception is even more important than fact, which is precisely what happened in December 2023. There is a famous saying among traders, and it goes like this: «Buy the rumour, sell the fact». I think it is fair to say that this happened in December 2023. The perception was that U.S. base rates would drop for the first time in Q1 2024, and markets went up. But will there be rate cuts in Q1 2024 already? I do not think so.

ECB and Fed

I believe the ECB and the Fed will keep their base interest rates high for longer than anticipated by the market because I believe the current rates will stay where they are until the decision-makers are convinced that inflation is falling, particularly in core services. However, I also believe that the central bankers have reached the end of their interest rate hikes.

Bullish markets

Especially towards the end of the year, markets went up on decreasing interest rate fantasies. The central bankers from the ECB and the Fed seemed much more cautious than the markets, and there are still objective reasons for this because of the ongoing tight labour market and sticking inflation that is still well above target. Even if some market participants feel differently, the central banker’s caution is probably essential because if central banks decrease interest rates too early and inflation remains high, markets may collapse, and central bankers may face a credibility issue.

Okay, but when will we see the first interest rates decrease?

I obviously do not know, maybe in Summer? You know, Ladies and Gentlemen, the great uncertainty as to the «when» is driven by the fact that the high-interest rates will only have a delayed effect on the economy. This is why central bankers repeat at every meeting that monetary policy works with long and variable delays, making it difficult to estimate the magnitude of the slowdown.

Is a recession in the cards?

We certainly are in a recession in Germany, but for the U.S., I am more optimistic and see low growth rates or a soft landing. 2024 is an election year in the U.S., which could drive the market because election years under a democrat presidency are usually good years for equities.

The quote

The quote, sent in by Mike, stems from a Roman senator 2’200 years ago and is about the destruction of the North African city of Carthage. It shows that, in some respects, we seem not to have developed despite all the knowledge accumulated over that period. Think about it!

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and the weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

„The intelligent altruists, though less altruistic than the unintelligent altruists,
will be fitter than unintelligent altruists and selfish individuals.“

Herbert Simon, Nobel Prize winner in economics

Who won?

Finally, and once again, the sleepless nights are over; it is time to declare our year-end competition winner.

Like every year, the data stems from Finanz und Wirtschaft (fuw.ch).

S&P 500          

According to the above source, the S&P 500 closed the year at 4’768.67. Almost every year, my readers are far too negative for equity markets; I wonder why this is the case because, statistically, there is no better way to invest than in equities. The lowest bid for the 2023 year-end competition for the S&P 500 came in at 3’175. The closest call in the S&P 500 came from my partner Ronni Stöferle, who had 4’634 points, which was also the highest bid; well done, Ronni and many thanks for participating!

Gold

According to the above source, Gold closed the year at USD 2’062.75; in clearly positive territory. A few of my readers were hoovering around USD 2’300.00 and the highest bid came in at USD 2’600.00; however, most were far too optimistic. Michael’s estimate came in at USD 2’071 and, therefore, was the closest. Well done, Michael and many thanks for participating!

Silver     

According to the above source, Silver closed the year at USD 23.785. However, the participants were too bullish on Silver as well, with estimates flying as high as USD 38.00. The closest call in Silver came from Attila with USD 24. Well done, Attila and many thanks for participating!

The Winner   

Dario is the Incrementum 2023 year-end competition winner; thus, the one-ounce Silver coin goes to Dario, a long-term reader of Stefan’s weekly, who regularly participates in the year-end competition. Congrats, dear Dario, well done!

However

However, Dario won because the first-place participant came from within Incrementum AG. Partners and employees from Incrementum AG can only participate out of competition. Ladies and Gentlemen, the closest overall bets came from my partner Ronni Stöferle; Dario finished second, my partner Mark Valek third, and I, Ladies and Gentlemen, finished fourth. There will most probably be another competition in 2024. And of course, Ronni, I will get you a Silver coin too. Well done, Ladies and Gentlemen, congrats to all participants!

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day, the weekend, and a fabulous 2024!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

„To help socialism win, we must first create the proletariat.“

Unknown (at least to me)

A challenging year

It has been a challenging year, and I almost have the impression that only challenging years are left. The markets, regulation, political, social and entrepreneurial misjudgements seem to be piling up, and most people are probably just longing for normality. So am I, Ladies and Gentlemen! Let us see; maybe things will get better next year. Either way, I am grateful to have my family, friends, clients, partners, colleagues and you, dear readers, as reliable partners on my side. Thank you for your consistently professional and comprehensive feedback, support and kind words! Thank you indeed!

2023 year-end competition

Without wanting to give away a secret, the performance of the S&P was again underestimated by many participants in this year’s competition, and, on the other hand, the performance of precious metals was overestimated. Interesting, no?

Merry Christmas

There is not much left for me to write today. I was swamped these last weeks, so I skipped one or the other «Stefan’s weekly» for which I apologise. Some of you have noticed and mentioned this to me in one form or another. Anyway, now let me wish you and your loved ones a Merry Christmas. Let it be funky, relaxed, delightful and full of joy. I will be back next week, after the last trading day, with the «2023 year-end competition» winner.

Your point of view

Ladies and Gentlemen, please share your opinion with me, but please remember (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li.

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and a wonderful Christmas-weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen

„Prophets are best spoken to 10 years later.“

Willi Ritschard, member of the Swiss Federal Council between 1973 – 1983

Time Confetti

Time confetti (a term coined by Brigid Schulte, the director of the Better Life Lab at New America and formerly a staff writer for The Washington Post for nearly 17 years) is a phenomenon which amounts to little bits of seconds and minutes lost to unproductive multitasking. Each bit alone is good. Collectively, though, all that confetti adds to something more pernicious than you might expect.

What is the price you are willing to pay

What price are you willing to pay is one essential question for almost everything in life. There is mostly a trade-off or cost associated with things in many aspects of life. It means something else of value is foregone whenever a choice is made. In a broader sense, the concept of everything having a price can extend beyond monetary terms. It can touch upon life’s philosophical, ethical, or even personal aspects. For instance, success might require hard work, dedication, and sacrifices, which can be seen as the „price“ for success. Therefore, the idea varies based on context. Sometimes, the „price“ might be tangible, like money or effort, while in other cases, it could be more abstract, like the compromises or sacrifices we make in pursuit of specific goals or beliefs.

Your emails, our conversations

When I look at individual emails in my inbox and think about some of the conversations I have with investors from time to time, I often notice that some people want to maximise short-term profit without paying the corresponding price. Preferably the highest possible returns without the unpleasant side of volatility. Unfortunately, Ladies and Gentlemen, this is not possible. In a world of seemingly instant gratification, this may seem unpleasant, yet it is the truth. For our private clients, we are trying not to separate between different investment styles. Instead, we offer one mandate style, trying to stay focused on the mandate specifications. However, volatility is part of the price our private investors must accept to exploit the long-term compounding effects of the mandate’s positive returns.

The connection between time confetti and the theory that everything has its price

You know, Ladies and Gentlemen, there is a connection between „time confetti“ and the concept that everything has its price. Time confetti refers to the fragmented and scattered nature of our time due to various small, often mundane tasks or interruptions that consume a significant portion of our day. In the context of everything having a price, time is a valuable resource with its own cost. When time gets fragmented into bits and pieces by various demands on our attention, it can feel like we are paying the price for our ability to focus, concentrate, and engage in deeper, more meaningful tasks or pursuits. This fragmentation of time can directly relate to the notion that everything has a price. The „price“ in this case might be the loss of focus, decreased productivity, or reduced quality in the tasks we engage in because our time and attention are divided among numerous demands. When time feels fragmented or scattered, the cost might only sometimes be immediately evident, but over time, it can impact our overall effectiveness and well-being. Therefore, managing time effectively becomes essential to mitigate the „price“ paid.

Conclusion

By staying focused on one mandate style for our private clients, we try to keep the adverse price of time confetti as low as possible. When I was a boy, my parents often told me I should do one thing well rather than many mediocre things. At the age of sixty, it still makes sense to me.

Your point of view

Ladies and Gentlemen, please share your opinion with me, but please remember (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li.

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and a wonderful weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li