Autor: Stefan Markus Kremeth

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

«Where there is no vision, there is no hope.»

Adrian shared this quote by George Washington Carver (George Washington Carver – Wikipedia) with us, and it fits today’s weekly perfectly!

Catastrophic and Disastrous

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen described the scenario for the economy if Congress would not have raised the debt ceiling by 18 October as «catastrophic» and «disastrous».

You know what, I think «catastrophic» and «disastrous» are the right words; however, not in conjunction with this year’s debt ceiling discussions but with the total amount of debt so far accumulated and handed over to the next generation over and over again.

Debt Ceiling

According to an interview, I read the other day; with Professor Felix Oberholzer-Gee, Harvard University, the USA is the only country besides Denmark with a debt ceiling.

What is a Debt Ceiling?

Investopedia gives us a concise definition: «The debt ceiling is the maximum amount of money the United States can borrow cumulatively by issuing bonds. The debt ceiling was created under the Second Liberty Bond Act of 1917 and is also known as the „debt limit“ or „statutory debt limit.“ If U.S. government national debt levels bump up against the ceiling, the Treasury Department must resort to other „extraordinary“ measures to pay government obligations and expenditures until the ceiling is raised again.» Thus, a debt ceiling that can be lifted all the time probably does not make much sense.

Showtime

Ladies and Gentlemen, this is all part of a political show. This time the Republicans will make it look like Democrats have no fiscal discipline. During a Republican presidency, the same argument is being used by Democrats. The enormous debt is sure to be an issue in the campaign for next year’s midterms, and one party can and will blame the other for the high debt.

Not a Question of Spending

Look, this is not a question of spending or budget discipline whatsoever. Congress has already approved all the spending; that is what it costs to run the United States of America the way it is run. You know what? There is no genuine political dispute about it because the spending was already decided. This is why the debt ceiling will be lifted again and again and again (it has been provisionally increased until December of this year).

Do we need to be worried?

Currently, I do not think so. Any political party, this time the Democrats, can manage the debt ceiling increase without the other political party (theoretically: «ies») this time, the Republicans, if necessary, within the framework of a so-called «reconciliation» with a simple majority in the Senate. Now, reconciliation is a complicated emergency procedure that, as already mentioned, only needs a simple majority in the Senate – which the Democrats currently have by a narrow margin. Republicans know that and will fight and make much noise ahead of next year’s midterms to keep the show going, and yet, eventually, they will agree on lifting the debt ceiling on what will be sold to the general public as a great compromise. Do not let yourself be fooled, Ladies and Gentlemen; in the history of rising U.S. debt ceilings, Democrats, as well as Republicans, have shown great passion in keeping the political show going on.

Today’s Quote

If we keep in mind the quote at the beginning of today’s weekly, one could easily argue that where there is no vision in changing the behaviour of both leading parties of continuing to pursue their particular partisan interests, there is no hope.

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day, a wonderful weekend, and above all, good health!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

«I believe in common sense like a miracle, but common sense forbids me to believe in miracles.»

This quote by Erich Kästner describes a dilemma in which many people find themselves and which occurs in the most diverse social contexts and the most diverse personal relationships and, Ladies and Gentlemen, in investing.

The Investing Dilemma

I believe that investing in financial assets almost constantly leads to dilemmas. Firstly and probably most obviously, there is the never-ending dilemma between risk and reward. Can I live with volatility, or can I not live with volatility. Is the risk-free rate of return good enough for me (in the Swiss Franc currency space – to which Liechtenstein belongs – the risk-free rate of return is negative), or to the contrary, am I seeking double-digit absolute returns?

A Question of Personal Preference

I would argue that there is no right or wrong, only a question of personal preference. This personal preference may be influenced by age, social context, past experiences, professional environment, etc.
People who invest in cryptocurrencies are most probably much more inclined to embrace higher volatility for the chance of higher returns than people investing in government bonds.

No One-Way Street

However, there is no one-way street in investing, at least not in the short run. Let us quickly look at gold as an example. Over a few thousand years, gold was a proven remedy against loss of purchasing power. But, unfortunately, so far this year, gold was not a good hedge against inflation. Yet, Ladies and Gentlemen, I think this does not mean a lot. Because as we can learn from the past, gold protected investors‘ purchasing power over centuries but not necessarily on a month-to-month or even year-to-year basis. The gold example goes for commodities, equities, real estate, etc. It comes and goes in cycles, different asset classes have investment cycles of different lengths, and even within an asset class, investment cycles length can differ from previous investment cycles.

So What?

Ask yourself what you expect from your investment. Only if you can answer that question will you find the hopefully right investment approach for yourself. Alternatively, in other words, if you are looking for a vehicle that helps you work your farm’s fields and you are buying a Mercedes limousine, you will most probably have bought a good car that, however, will not suit your purpose and thus not lead to much satisfaction.

Common Sense

It should be a question of common sense and not a miracle to know what you want in investing. Therefore, I recommend starting an investment only after answering what is to be achieved with the investment.

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day, a wonderful weekend, and above all, good health!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

«Money is one of the greatest instruments of freedom ever invented by man.»

Friedrich August von Hayek

Friedrich August von Hayek was an Austrian (-British) economist and philosopher who shared the 1974 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences with Karl Gunnar Myrdal.

Money as an Instrument

«Money is one of the greatest instruments of freedom ever invented by man.» With this quote Friedrich August von Hayek claimed that money in our existing society opens an astounding range of choices to the poor man, a range more significant than that not many generations ago was open only to the wealthy.

I could not agree more, however, depending on where and in what social context one was born, obtaining a minimum amount of money may still represent a significant challenge that should not be underestimated. One question I would have for Mister Hayek is if more money means more freedom to him? Although we live in a world of monetary expansion, I do not feel «freedom» expands at the same magnitude, if at all. Now, I know it is a question of definition. The question is, what does freedom mean to the individual?

Your Feedback

Ladies and Gentlemen, thank you very much for your positive feedback to my last weekly mail, «No Stopping for the Prophets of Doom». I would like to share the following feedback with you because the statements coincide with my thoughts:

«I never saw volatility as a risk (if you do not sell when prices are low, you cannot crystalise the loss). In my view, the biggest risk for investors (which by definition I take to mean long-term capital allocators with a desire to build multi-generational wealth) is politics: changes in regimes. For example, far more dangerous is a shift in legal systems from a set of values that respects private property to one that does not – this, in my opinion, is a greater risk than fluctuations of prices because it has the genuine chance of forever destroying wealth for some people.»

And:
«As long as the risks that these doom prophets are trumpeting about are market vicissitudes, there should be a little worry. After all, if money moves out of stocks and their prices go down, they will go into other asset classes until the panic passes and then back into equities, as they usually do.»

Updated Website

I would also like to take the opportunity to share two links to our updated website with you:

Wealth Management – Incrementum

Home – Incrementum

The first one leads directly to our Wealth Management site and the second link brings you to the Incrementum AG landing page.

We have not changed it massively, but we took some stuff out and slightly adjusted the structure. My partners and I hope you will like it.

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day, a wonderful weekend, and above all, good health!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

Seasonal reasons may be responsible for increased nervousness on the stock markets.

Gloomy times ahead

The prophets of doom are in high season. Some are supposedly world-famous stock market gurus; others are less known, yet a doomsday scenario connects them. They predict gloomy (stock market) times and tell their market crash stories. „The warners are warning again,“ wrote the Swiss newspaper «Handelszeitung». So hardly anything is booming more than crash scenarios. „The prophets of doom are in top form.“ Stagflation (much inflation, little growth), „bubbles everywhere“ (not just in stocks), „the biggest U.S. fantasy trip ever“, „the crash is imminent, if not this year, then certainly early next year“.

Interests/Motivation

I wrote about this many times, Ladies and Gentlemen, and even if I risk repeating myself, please never forget there are always interests behind stories. No matter if we are looking at stories of a stock market crash or stories of booming markets. Always ask yourself the writer’s and speaker’s motivation behind the story he writes or tells us.

October 1929 – Facts

October is just around the corner, the month in which the biggest stock market crashes occurred. The most serious happened on October 24, 1929, when panic broke out on Wall Street for not entirely clear reasons. Stock exchange traders threw their securities on the market; private investors lost their savings, companies went bankrupt. They covered the loans with their shares, which were suddenly worth nothing. It was the mother of all crashes. A global depression lasting several years was the result.

October 1987 – Facts

An even bigger crash, but less disastrous, took place on Black Monday, October 19, 1987. (It happened during my last month of a 12-month internship at UBS Toronto, and I was (very young and very impressed) sitting in an office just above the Toronto Stock Exchange). The Dow Jones plunged 23 per cent in just one day, the most significant price drop ever. Five hundred billion U.S. dollars, almost a quarter of the market, vanished into thin air within a few hours.

More Facts

However, just 15 months later, share prices had largely recovered. The fall in share prices was also a consequence of the computerization of stock market trading. Traders had set sell limits. As soon as a price of a Stock XYZ fell to a certain level, the paper was sold. This started an avalanche. Since then, stock exchanges have learned. To prevent a cascade, like the one on that Black Monday, computerized stock market trading is stopped as soon as panic breaks out and an uncontrolled downward spiral gets underway. This was also the case on September 11, 2001 (when terrorist attacks brought down the Twin Towers in Manhattan), during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008 and the Covid-19 Crisis last year.

Volatility/Risk

As unfortunate as it may seem, volatility/risk is part of the game. Volatility is the price we have to pay to get maybe (there is no certainty) awarded with returns. Of course, prophets of doom will always try to scare investors out of investments, and as every broken analogue watch twice a day shows the right time, they will from time to time be correct, but history and statistics show that without doubt, a basket containing equities of trustworthy companies remain one of the best long-term investments there is.

Outlook

I cannot foresee the future and therefore cannot give any outlook. However, If you are invested in solid business models that produce ample cash flows, your investments‘ price should not necessarily be seen as a snapshot. Our private client’s portfolios are in constant motion. On weak days we tend to add to the positions. On boom days, we let go of some stock. Always in very low single-digit percentages of the entire portfolio and never with leverage. Of course, we never get it right 100%, but we tend to harvest decent and relatively stable returns over the years, and since we invest solely in companies producing positive net cashflows, willing to let investors participate in the form of dividends, etc. our investors take advantage of the effect of compounding.

Fear

Fear should not rule our lives and our investment behaviour neither. Caution makes sense, after all, we live in a risky market environment. However, fear does not make sense in my opinion.

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day, a wonderful weekend, and above all, good health!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

Gold continues not to do what it should have done in the face of high inflation and low interest rates, namely to rise. You know, I think the rift is across the commodity market (i.e. oil is rising, iron ore is falling). So anyway, let us see what the other readers concluded.

Contributors

Before getting into it, I have received so many emails with your ideas about why gold is not moving in the direction most of us think it should that I was almost overwhelmed. If I do not list all of the responses and ideas I received, it is by no means because I think they are not worth publishing but because I had to make a selection to keep my weekly short and snappy. First, however, I am happy to thank Gilbert (an old friend – we have been going back almost 40 years), Ramon, Thomas, Mike, Marco, Bob, Patrick, Adrian, Peter, Mark, Robert, Richard, Arnd, David, Jan and others. Thank you very much indeed for sending in your thoughts.

Consolidation

As promised, I have consolidated your answers to why gold does not shine; please enjoy the read:

«Everything in life relates to confidence or the lack of it. Right now, there is still much confidence in central bank policies all around the world. However, once confidence starts to wane, things will change. Unfortunately, this can take longer than most are willing to wait for.»

«The world is different today from what it was 50 or 100 years ago, and crypto may be the new, new thing. Nevertheless, I doubt and subscribe to the words of John Paulson in a recent interview: crypto is a limited supply of nothing!»

«I see gold as an insurance policy and do not imagine the house burning down.»

«Consolidation phase, lack of investor interest, risk of rising rates.»

«Crypto takes the money from gold. Gold is archaic to the young. Analog. Another blank stare inducer.»

«The environmental ESG threat to miners is frightening. The jurisdictional threats are frightening—no such thing as Tier 1 jurisdiction. Look at Newmont tweets. All ESG. They are running scared.»

«Best macro conditions have peaked. Jubilee, forgiveness will not matter.»

«If the U.S. wanted to maximize its gold holding by a higher reset value, why have they not hinted at it. They are hostage to their dollar.»

«Jewellery will be replaced as India, and China etc., go all CBDC digital, probably outlawed.»

More Views

«Gold will not shine until the downfall of the monetary system, first of all, the USD, and the situation must be clear for all society.»
«Those of us who have been through the ups and downs of gold over many decades know that timing the moves in gold price is not easy, even when the odds are stacked in its favour as is the case at present. We are experiencing a market dominated by excess liquidity arising from artificially low interest rates and profligate monetary injection. Ultimately this will flow through to a higher gold price, but in the meantime, there is easy money to be made for investments in passive equity plays, which have benefitted from an enormous, artificially created bull market. The technicals currently suggest that the major US markets may still have some upside left, although the last few days may signal the beginnings of a correction. If so, gold will likely be sold down temporarily to address margin calls. Nevertheless, bullion and gold stocks will ultimately take off when investors recognize how grossly overpriced the major share markets have become. The trigger may be tapering or some other announcement signalling that the game is over. Gold will then resume its safe-haven status as a repository of wealth and will rise to new heights. This could be soon, or we may have to remain patient a while longer.»

«It is a story about fiat money. So many people take the fiat money to save and forget everything about real money like gold.»

«The end game for fiat currencies is when the central bank loses control either of interest rates or inflation. Undoubtedly, economically sensitive commodities will correct sharply—volatility is endemic to inflationary economics—but consumer inflation seems to have well established itself with no end in sight. This makes the real interest rate ever more negative. The Fed will have to choose whether to raise rates to chase inflation, and risk market instability, or sit back and watch the dollar implode.»

«Gold is performing bad (relative to other assets and based on the economic situation – raging inflation everywhere) because, obviously, a majority still trust FED that they will do their „magic touch“ once more to the markets. Remember, in past years, things looked quite desperate, yet somehow FED always managed to cheer up the markets.» 

«The FED is out of proper tools now. So, as they still have many tools in their box (e.g. yield control), none of them is non-inflationary (as they were in the past). So whatever they will be doing, as is already the case, just the market does not understand yet; they are/will be just pouring gasoline on the fire of inflation. Markets also do not understand there will be no tapering (maybe just a try), even less any of the interest rate increases, as they can not lift them because of too much debt in the system (consumer loans, company debt, zombie companies and U.S. government debt itself). There is no way that gold will not go up and silver with all of its industry usage (e.g., E.V., solar).»

Further Thoughts

«Based on much technical analysis, we are not far from the end of it; maybe we will get a final „dip“ to around $1675. But, moreover, more thing – with every low, we are closer to higher high.»

«We are in a retail-driven mania, where flows are the mover, and fundamentals (and risk) almost do not matter. I am not much concerned about the long-term outlook after the mania recedes. The tough questions I am pondering about is:

– In what stage of the mania are we (before it crashes on its weight)?
– Will that general crash first inflict a big wound on gold and gold stocks, or will it be overall positive?
– What happens with the price of gold in the run-up to the crash?

It will be a gradual bear market, then good for gold, but a sudden big crash might be devastating for gold for some time. That is why I find the a) question important. The longer the mania lasts, the bigger chance of a big crash as opposed to a gradual risk-on unwinding. This results in the decision if it is good to hold gold from now on, or wait for the opportunity to buy later at depressed levels.»

Ladies and Gentlemen

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day, a wonderful weekend, and above all, good health!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

After my last weekly mail, I got involved in exciting conversations with Marco on the value and scarcity of an asset. As a result, Marco and I agreed that we would publish his thoughts or better his questions in this regard in this special edition. You will see many questions and no answers. If Marco’s questions lead to thought processes leading to one or the other answer, at least from one or the other perspective, this weekly’s goal is obtained.

General Thoughts

All humanity naturally generates wealth, and, naturally, we have always seemed to understand what we are talking about when we talk about value, store of value, monetary assets, or money.

Intriguing Questions

However, we are just beginning a path in which we can simply understand questions such as: What do we call value? What is the origin of value? Is there an Objective and natural magnitude of value, or is it just a subjective perception? What do we say when we say that something is a Store of Value (SoV)? What is the scarcity of an asset? How does the scarcity of an asset and its evolution influence the general perception of value? How does scarcity influence an asset’s volatility, and how is it related to economic momentum and GDP? How do fungibility and scarcity interact to define a store of value? What is the least volatile non-fiduciary asset in human history? Which assets are chosen as a store of constant value? Are there assets that have an increasing Store of Value? What does scarcity have to do with a „sound“ or „hard“ money? What impact does population evolution have on the relative perception of an asset’s value? Which are the assets that we „naturally“ choose as a Unit of Account (UoA)? How can we understand the natural laws that link the Market Capitalization of an asset to its scarcity? Which are the best assets to have a constant and growing Store of Value over time? When is gold a store of value, and when is it not, and for which periods? Is Bitcoin a Store of Value? What does market freedom have to do with a constant Store of Value?

What other real assets can be considered monetary? Can an asset with an increasing Store of Value be taken as a unit of account? What are the enhanced investment portfolios with diversified real assets, or synthetic ones, and increasing store of value? How can gold and other assets, like Bitcoin, behave in the face of an escalation of mining restrictions or an attempted global confiscation with the excuse of the environment or economic terrorism? How immune are national sovereignties to these scenarios? How is scarcity related to thermodynamics, economics, psychology, mathematics, and information and communication theory? What is a psychological black body? Can we speak of a principle of economic indeterminacy?

Food for thought, Ladies and Gentlemen? I think so.

Next Week

So next week, I will send out, as proposed last week, the consolidated views of my readers to the question of why gold does not shine anymore. First, however, let us get into the topic featured by Marco.

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li
Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day, a wonderful weekend, and above all, good health!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

Gold does not shine this year, and whether you believe it or not, I receive many inquiries, messages and sometimes mails that show an inevitable frustration. While I understand people being frustrated about staying in an asset class that is not moving up while everything else seems to perform well, after all, we live in a „relative to expectations world“, I do not see it as our responsibility to make gold move in the «right» direction, only because we are the producers of the «In Gold we Trust» report. Last year and the year before, gold performed well and maybe what we see this year is just a consolidation.

In Gold we Trust (IGWT)

Yes, we publish the Incrementum Gold Report (IGWT) every year, and yes, it is written positively, and yes, gold currently does not rise. This may be very unfortunate, but it is also part of the game of investing. We are in it for the long-term, and speculation is not our business, and yet, Ladies and Gentlemen, the reason why we are positive on gold in the long-term has not changed one bit. We regularly publish our opinion and explain in detail why we do believe in our conclusions. As a matter of fact, my partner Ronni Stöferle was holding a keynote at a conference in the U.S. yesterday on the topic, and according to the feedback I gathered, it was very well received.

Drivers of the gold price

One would assume, free liquidity for almost everyone, cheap money, i.e. low interest rates and low bond yields, political tensions, inflationary pressure, would, under normal circumstances, lead to higher prices in precious metals. Instead, however, equities are up, cryptocurrencies are up, even bonds are up, only gold is performing disappointingly.

Why?

During our investment committee meeting last week, we were indeed discussing this year’s underperformance of gold.

So, Ladies and Gentlemen, what do you think, why is gold not moving up? I am sure all of you have some ideas for it, and I would be pleased to receive your feedback.

Is it maybe a simple question of competition of funds, or are cryptocurrencies taking the role of gold among younger investors and proposing far better speculative returns? What are the reasons?

Your call!

This is your call, Ladies and Gentlemen; please send me your concise ideas. Your opinion counts. I will consolidate your views and publish them in my next weekly mail.

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li
Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day, a wonderful weekend, and above all, good health!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

In his book „The Enigma of Room 622“, Joel Dicker writes, „success is the pleasure of working together“. This very well describes a part of my way of thinking. It gives me great pleasure to achieve prosperity for our investors‘ thanks to the personal exchange and cooperation with different people and by trying to stay as calm as possible in sometimes crazy times.

Normal Volatility

For more than one year, ever since the covid outbreak in Q1 2020, «calamity predicters» call for a crash. Still, no crash to be seen but plenty of opportunity costs for those not invested. Volatility in traditional asset classes is within a standard range. This, of course, does not mean there will not be a slump or crash in the market eventually, but it mainly means that it probably makes sense not to keep all eggs in one basket and invest for one scenario, only.

Why

Why would I mention this? Because to me, it is exemplary on how I try to approach research, podcasts, youtube videos, newspapers, etc. When reading research or listening to people’s podcasts, youtube videos, and the like, the most crucial question is «why». Why does the analyst, journalist, podcast or video producer communicate what she/he is communicating? What may be the motivation? If you can get a vague idea of the «why», you have a higher chance of gauging the conclusion and setting it in relation to your own views and ideas.

My Motivation

Ok, «so, Stefan, what is your motivation»? You may think. To be as transparent as possible, I am happy to elaborate on my motivation to write a weekly mail to my subscribers for free. It is simple, over a year, I receive a fair amount of feedback, and in many cases, the feedback helps me calibrate my own views and beliefs. In other words, true, I produce free content, but also true, I receive free feedback. So on one side, I see it as a win-win for my readers and myself, and on the other side, it gives me genuine pleasure to write just about every topic I want, when I want.

Joel Dicker

To me, „success is the pleasure of working together“! So I think Joel Dicker is right! Furthermore, I am privileged to share my thoughts with people worldwide and receive feedback from people from all over the world with sometimes very different perspectives.

Your view counts!

How do you approach research, podcasts, youtube videos, newspapers, etc?
As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day, a wonderful weekend, and above all, good health!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

This year’s year-end competition shows an interesting picture.

Extremes

As you will see, the volatility in the individual underlying’s market prices is somewhat represented in the spread between the highest and lowest of your estimates for gold, Bitcoin and the S&P 500. However, there are still estimates dropping in every day; thus, I will only calculate the weighted average for each category in a few weeks from now. So far the picture is the following:

Gold

The range in gold stretches from USD 1’650 to USD 2’066, with roughly half of the estimates hovering around 1’850. Thus, my readers seem not too bullish on gold but slightly optimistic.

Bitcoin

The range in Bitcoin stretches from USD 23’000 to USD 87’000. Now, for Bitcoin, the picture is very much different than for gold. So far, roughly half of the estimates lie above USD 70’000, which shows my reader’s great confidence for higher prices in Bitcoin.

S&P 500

The range in the S&P 500 stretches from USD 3’835 to USD 5’048. However, half of the estimates came in lower than today’s market price, and half of the estimates came in above today’s market price.

Conclusion

Hitherto, it seems most of you are bullish on Bitcoin, slightly positive on gold and neutral on the S&P 500.

My Prediction

Some of you had noticed that, unlike in the past years, I had not yet given my prediction. True, I was always the first one to show my cards. However, this year I kept them close to my chest because I did not want to influence anyone in any way.

I forecast that gold will close at USD 1’900, Bitcoin will close at 66’000 and the S&P 500 at 5’100.

As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:… but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to:
smk@incrementum.li

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day, a wonderful weekend, and above all, good health!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

For those who have joined our readers recently, every year, I am organising a year-end competition in guessing for example the price of gold, silver, crude oil, the SMI or the S&P 500 Index.

Predictions

Regularly, I receive emails from readers asking me where I think the price of gold would be at the end of the year or the SMI or interest rates or the price of silver. Those who follow my weekly emails frequently will know, that I would not say I like making predictions.

Invitation

However, from time to time, I am happy to tell you what I think may happen just for fun, and since we are in August already, it is time for our traditional year-end competition. Like I did in the past, I invite you to compete with all the other readers and myself, and as always, the winner will receive one ounce of silver in the form of a silver coin. If the winner stems from within Incrementum or my family. I am happy to send a one-ounce silver coin also to the second in place.

Former Winners

The list of former winners includes an old friend from university, a client, a former fund manager and value specialist from London and regular readers. So far, no family members and none of my partners were close enough to be called winners. It is difficult if not impossible to guess the future and yet I am looking forward to your bets!

Gold, Bitcoin, S&P 500

Now, Ladies and Gentlemen, I suppose we try to guess the year-end price for one ounce of gold in USD, the S&P 500 and (for the first time) Bitcoin in USD. All cash, no futures. The closest one wins the silver coin. The year-end prices will be taken from this page:
https://marktdaten.fuw.ch/.

Ladies and Gentlemen, what do you think? What is your best guess for the year-end prices of gold, the S&P 500 and Bitcoin. As always, please share your opinion with me, but please do not forget (instead of hitting the reply button) to send your messages to: smk@incrementum.li.

Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day, a wonderful weekend, and above all, good health!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 102
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li