Update: 2025 Year-End Competition

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen


”That is very, very unusual; since 2005, only the rebounds after the Global Financial Crisis and Covid-19 have had bigger five-month rallies — and they both followed much deeper initial selloffs.”

John Authers

 

As the prices of precious metals have increased substantially, interest rates have exhibited remarkable stability. On the other hand, the US dollar has demonstrated a significant weakening, potentially resulting in imported inflation. Interesting, no?

Silver

Wow, Ladies and Gentlemen, Silver stands at USD 54.12. Who would have thought? Obviously, no modifications have been made to our „betting landscape“. Hans holds the highest bid at USD 47.80, while Mark has submitted the lowest bid at USD 35.77. If Silver performs the way it did the last few weeks, Hans will be way off and still take that one home on December 31, 2025.

Shanghai Composite

The Shanghai Composite stands at 3’916. Mark is in the lead, and Hans is positioned in second. Hans submitted the highest bid at 3’980 points, marginally higher, approximately five points, than the corresponding bid submitted by Mark. In stark contrast, Niklas’s lowest recorded bid stands at 2’950 points.

10-Year U.S. Treasury

The 10-year U.S. Treasury trades at 4.03%. I am surprised to see that interest rates are so low. I would have expected current trade policies to lead to much higher inflation and thus interest rates. Maybe this is still to come, but my assumption was wrong so far. Anyway, in the 10-year U.S. Treasury securities market, Mike has the highest recorded bet at 5.55%, while Hans maintains the lowest at 3.8%. To me, this is still the most interesting bet. I am curious if we will see inflation kick in before year-end.

Ladies and Gentlemen

Feel free to send your messages to smk@incrementum.li. Many thanks, indeed!

I wish you an excellent start to the day and weekend!

Yours truly,

Stefan M. Kremeth
CEO & Head of Wealth Management
Incrementum AG – we love managing assets

Tel.: +423 237 26 60
Cell: +41 79 303 48 39
Im alten Riet 153
9494 Schaan/Liechtenstein
Mail: smk@incrementum.li